SC Republicans, analysts: It's still Donald Trump's GOP but Nikki Haley could be formidable

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UPDATE: Former SC Gov. Nikki Haley announced a a 2024 run for president Tuesday, Feb. 14 via her Twitter feed.

As former SC. Gov. Nikki Haley prepares to enter the presidential fray, GOP operatives and political observers in Greenville and Spartanburg said the next few months will be part of a waiting game.

Haley, they said, was a formidable politician. But could she prove to be more electable and desirable than former President Donald Trump to South Carolina voters?

“A lot of voters will be a little loyal to Trump based on his accomplishments and based on fighting the fight we wanted him to fight as far as issues,” said former Greenville GOP chair Nate Leupp. “But then, we also want to have the best chance in the November elections.”

Leupp said he is not convinced, yet, of Trump's electability in the general election, but if he had to vote today, he would vote for Trump in the presidential primary.

“Unless someone else shows me they can do what Trump did and are more electable,” he said.

Nikki Haley, former Governor of South Carolina, center, cheers for Christ Church after a 43-20 win against Johnsonville after the A State Championship game at Benedict College in Columbia, S.C. on Friday, Dec. 2, 2022.
Nikki Haley, former Governor of South Carolina, center, cheers for Christ Church after a 43-20 win against Johnsonville after the A State Championship game at Benedict College in Columbia, S.C. on Friday, Dec. 2, 2022.

Curt Smith, chairman of the Spartanburg County Republican Party, said Haley will have to have a strong showing in South Carolina to have a chance at overcoming Trump.

"Nikki Haley is a very popular person in South Carolina, but Mr. Trump is extremely popular here," Smith said. "She's going to have to show she has strength here. If she doesn't have strength in South Carolina, she's not going anywhere."

Last week, Smith attended an event in the SC Statehouse where Trump introduced his South Carolina leadership team and received endorsements from Sen. Lindsey Graham, 4th District Congressman William Timmons, Gov. Henry McMaster and former state Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer.

The main difference between Haley and Trump, he said, was experience.

"Mr. Trump is far more of a business person, able to look through issues and forward," Smith continued. "Nikki cannot drain the swamp and get corruption out of Washington, where Mr. Trump could."

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former Vice President Mike Pence are also expected to join the GOP presidential race.

Recent SC polls show Donald Trump's potential GOP competitors gaining ground

In the last election cycle, former President Donald Trump's presidential candidacy seemed to be a no-brainer. Several state GOP parties, including the South Carolina Republican Party, canceled their 2020 primaries citing the need to save taxpayer dollars since it was going to be an easy win for Trump.

But recent polls by SC Policy Council and Winthrop University signal an opening for other candidates to potentially challenge Trump's dominance.

The SC Policy Council polled 386 likely 2024 SC Republican primary voters and found that only 37% said the GOP should pick Trump in 2024, while 47% said the GOP should nominate someone else.

In a head to head contest, 52% of the voters said they would vote for DeSantis over Trump, the poll data released Jan. 27 showed.

President Donald Trump speaks with his United Nations (U.N.) ambassador Nikki Haley while chairing a United Nations Security Council meeting on September 26, 2018 in New York City. Trump presides over the 15-member council as the United States holds the monthly rotating presidency. The Security Council meeting coincides with the 73rd United Nations General Assembly at the U.N. (Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images)

Meanwhile, the Winthrop poll showed a close contest between Haley and Trump. Among those likely to vote Republican, about 45% of the ones polled, favored Trump. However, about 37% picked Haley. The margin of error in the statistical analysis of the responses was around 5%.

Danielle Vinson, a political science professor at Furman University, said it will be important to see how Haley navigates her views about Trump.

"When she was governor, she didn't endorse him in the primary. She spoke out against him at times during that year. In 2016, she kept a little bit of arm's distance between her and him while she was in the administration as the UN ambassador, but then after she left, she was actually pretty vocally supportive of him at times."

Nikki Haley, listens during the Clemson University Board of Trustees meeting at the School of Business Friday, July 22, 2022.
Nikki Haley, listens during the Clemson University Board of Trustees meeting at the School of Business Friday, July 22, 2022.

Some political analysts have said Haley may be a vice presidential contender. But Vinson is not convinced.

"I don't think being Trump's Vice President is the way to set yourself up to be President of the United States, and I really think that what she wants to do," Vinson said.

Smith said he has not heard that Haley is angling to be vice president.

"Everybody's speculating," Smith said. "Nobody knows what's in her head or what's going to happen when she gets in the race. It will be interesting if she doesn't attack Mr. Trump.

"Kamala Harris was out of the race early, and she became vice president. Anything can happen.

Trump is also facing a legion of lawsuits and DeSantis rising in the early New Hampshire polls.

Former US President Donald Trump, joined by members of his leadership team, speaks at a 2024 election campaign event in Columbia, South Carolina, on January 28, 2023.
Former US President Donald Trump, joined by members of his leadership team, speaks at a 2024 election campaign event in Columbia, South Carolina, on January 28, 2023.

"If Trump continues to look weak, people who like Trump's style may not find Nikki Haley all that appealing and may prefer DeSantis."

But Vinson said Haley should do well among suburban women voters in a way that DeSantis may not. In terms of her ideology, there are no questions about her Conservatism, Vinson said.

The jury's out on whether Haley can prevail in what could be a crowded primary.

"My overall view of Haley is that she has always been the underdog and she's always ended up winning," Leupp said. "It's also very significant because I believe she will probably be one of the best female presidential candidates the GOP side has ever had."

Devyani Chhetri covers South Carolina and national politics for the Greenville News. Bob Montgomery covers Spartanburg County politics for the Spartanburg Herald-Journal.

This article originally appeared on Greenville News: SC Republicans, analysts: Donald Trump GOP but Nikki Haley formidable