Scalise and Jordan share a major resume line — and Democrats plan to pounce on it
The News
The Republican Study Committee has long been a vanguard for conservative policy ideas on Capitol Hill. Now, for the first time, one of the group’s former heads stands poised to become the next House speaker, giving it a brighter national spotlight that could also carry some risks for Republicans.
On Wednesday, Republicans narrowly nominated their current majority leader, Rep. Steve Scalise, for the speaker’s chair over right-wing favorite Rep. Jim Jordan. Both lawmakers previously led the RSC one after the other — Jordan from 2011 to 2013, and Scalise from 2013 to 2014.
Joseph’s view
These days, the RSC is best known around Washington as a GOP policy shop responsible for crafting proposals to balance the federal budget, often through changes and cuts to Social Security and Medicare. Expect those measures to feature prominently in Democratic campaign ads if Scalise (or Jordan) clinches the speakership, which could cause some headaches for Republicans in Biden districts.
In 2014, for instance, Scalise released a proposal to raise the eligibility age for Social Security and Medicare to 70, among other cost-cutting measures — the kind of thing Democrats see as prime attack ad fodder.
“You’re definitely going to see us capitalize on that across the country,” a Democratic strategist working on Congressional races told Semafor. “I think most folks know — whether you’re in Arizona or Pennsylvania — attacking and undermining Social Security, or trying to privatize Medicare is not going to be a winning issue for you come November 2024.”
The RSC’s proposals largely serve as messaging bills that lawmakers back to burnish their conservative credentials. But those votes have come back to haunt some Republican politicians this year. During his years in the House, for instance, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis backed RSC budget resolutions that included cuts to Medicare and Social Security. Donald Trump has savaged him for those votes during this year’s presidential race.
President Biden has made this year’s RSC budget his own punching bag. “To hear MAGA Republicans in Congress tell it, the only way to reduce the deficit is to cut Medicare, Social Security that you’ve paid for your whole life,” he said in a Sept. 13 speech on the economy. “Give me a break.”
The fact that the two top speaker candidates are both former RSC leaders also reflects how the House GOP has evolved over time. The RSC was once seen as a thorn in leadership’s side. But while it’s remained a fount of conservative ideas, it has also grown in size to become the largest single faction of House Republicans — described often as a “shadow conference.” That it has become a stepping stone for Republicans with ambitions towards a leadership post in some ways reflects the party’s drift to the right.
“This isn’t a choice between the establishment and conservative, this is going to be a conservative outcome,” Liam Donovan, a GOP strategist, told Semafor.
Notably, Oklahoma Rep. Kevin Hern, the current RSC chair, launched a campaign on Wednesday to be Scalise’s number two after also weighing a run for speaker.
Room for Disagreement
Not everyone thinks the RSC’s deep budget cuts will be a headache for House Republicans. Last month, House Budget Chair Jodey Arrington, R-Texas., released a separate blueprint to balance the federal budget within a decade while also setting up a debt commission with the ability to fast-track recommendations for floor vote.
He told Semafor that Scalise supports establishing a bipartisan debt commission and voters won’t necessarily punish Republicans if the party explains why major reforms are necessary. “They’ll recognize that the only way to save this country from going into a sovereign debt crisis is to address those entitlements, make them work better for the beneficiaries,” Arrington said.
