Schad: Here are the Top 10 Dolphins hits and misses of Chris Grier GM regime

The Dolphins have had six draft and free agent classes since Chris Grier was named general manager in 2016.

At best, the sum of those transactions have been average.

Miami has had three draft and free agent classes since Grier ascended into highest power after the departure of Mike Tannenbaum.

At best, the sum of those transactions have been average.

Tannenbaum and Adam Gase are gone - and now Brian Flores is, too.

Grier's 2022 offseason, with some solid draft capital and as much to spend in free agency as anybody, can't be average.

It must be outstanding.

Grier must show Dolphins owner Stephen Ross why he was worth keeping around. He must show Ross, and the football world, why he's been in the organization since 2000.

He's the last man standing. There's no one else to blame.

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There has been lots of time and effort spent in recent years attempting to ascertain how much of draft success is skill and how much is luck.

And to be honest, almost all the research projects indicate that luck is a prevailing factor. The best idea is to accumulate massive draft capital, thus increasing your odds.

According to research projects by Football Outsiders and Pro Football Focus, these teams are considered to have the best recent draft track records: Kansas City, Indianapolis, Dallas, Buffalo, New Orleans and Los Angeles Rams.

Most general managers, no matter how much they are perceived to be brilliant or sub-par, will end up floating somewhere close to the median. The Dolphins are considered in that range, especially taking into account a strong 2021 NFL Draft.

Under Grier, as one might have expected, there have been some hits and some misses.

Grier has had final say on the last six drafts, though some wonder the input Tannenbaum and Gase may have had on the first three. Many also wonder how hard they may have pushed when older free agents were signed and failed.

And Grier has had final say on both the draft and free agency for the last three Dolphins cycles, though some wonder about the extent of Flores' input. Flores was strong-minded and heavy-handed, as has been, uh, well-documented of late.

Miami's free agency record over the last six years? Quite terrible.

Grier and Ross have spoken about setting up the team for "sustained" success. Will Miami alter its strategies in any way considering it has missed the playoffs in five straight seasons?

Will Grier feel extra pressure to "go for it" and "be aggressive" as makes decisions this offseason?

Let's take a look back for a sense for what may lie ahead.

Taking into account that Grier may have been heavily influenced by others on some decisions over the past six years, we still need to evaluate that six-year period.

We must keep in mind that some of these players (especially draft picks over the last two years) are not necessarily fully-formed and their careers cannot be fully-judged.

There also have been a few relevant trades (Josh Rosen, for example, did not work out) but we'll limit this exercise to the draft and free agency.

Here are the Top 10 hits and misses of the Grier regime:

Hits

1. Xavien Howard, CB, 2016 Draft, 2-38 — Pro Bowler, Hall of Fame track.

2. Laremy Tunsil, OT, 2016 Draft 1-13 — Pro Bowler, traded away.

3. Minkah Fitzpatrick, S, 2018 Draft 1-11 — Pro Bowler, traded away.

4. Jaylen Waddle, WR, 2021 Draft 1-6 — Rookie receiving record.

5. Emmanuel Ogbah, DE, 2020 Free Agency — Two years, 18 sacks.

6. Jevon Holland, S, 2021 Draft 2-36 — Ideal center fielder.

7. Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB, 2019 Free Agency — Extraordinary leader.

8. Christian Wilkins, DT, 2019 Draft 1-13 — Massive Year 3 jump.

9. Jerome Baker LB, 2018 Draft, 3-73 — New-age speedy backer.

10. Raekwon Davis, DT, 2020 Draft 2-56 — Massive run-stuffer.

Also considered: Mike Gesicki, Jaelan Phillips, Robert Hunt, Byron Jones, Jason Sanders, Jakeem Grant, Davon Godchaux, Frank Gore.

Misses

1. QB Justin Herbert — We're not ready to say Tua is a miss, but passing on Justin is.

2. RB Jonathan Taylor — Miami went with OL Austin Jackson, CB Noah Igbinoghene.

3. WR Will Fuller, 2021 Free Agency — $10 million, 4 catches.

4. DL Mario Williams, 2016 Free Agency — Retired after 1.5 sacks.

5. OLB Charles Harris, 2017 NFL Draft 1-22 — 41 games, 3.5 sacks.

6. OT Ereck Flowers, 2020 Free Agency — Traded after 1 year, cost $17 million with trade.

7. RB Jordan Howard, 2020 Free Agency — 5 games, 33 rushing yards, $4.7 million.

8. OLB Kyle Van Noy, 2020 Free Agency — Cut after 1 year, cost $15 million.

9. DB Cordrea Tankersley, 2017 NFL Draft 3-97 — 19 games, 0 interceptions.

10. DE Shaq Lawson, 2020 Free Agency — Traded after 1 year, cost $13.5 million.

11. (Bonus) LB Lawrence Timmons, 2017 Free Agency — Retired after one season.

12. (Bonus) WR Leonte Carroo, 2016 NFL Draft 3-86 — 37 games, 12 catches.

Also considered: Raekwon McMillan, Arian Foster, Dwayne Allen, Josh Sitton, Danny Amendola.

This article originally appeared on Palm Beach Post: Chris Grier Miami Dolphins Top 10 hits and misses as GM via Schad