Scholz’s SPD Party Facing Election Setback in Repeat Berlin Vote

(Bloomberg) -- Olaf Scholz’s Social Democratic Party is expected to suffer a setback in Sunday’s election in Berlin in what would be a blow to the chancellor and SPD Mayor Franziska Giffey.

Most Read from Bloomberg

• China Ready to Down Object Flying Near Naval Base: Paper

• China Says US Balloons Trespassed Over 10 Times Since Early 2022

• US Fighters Down More Objects as Tension Ratchets Higher

• US Fighter Jet Downs Fourth Aerial Object Over North America

• Guess Who Loses After Florida and Texas Bar ESG Banks?

Giffey was appointed to the German capital’s top job after narrowly winning the regional vote held in September 2021 on the same day as the national election that swept Scholz into the chancellery. A repeat was ordered by Berlin’s top court because of irregularities including missing voting slips and logistical problems due to the city’s marathon being held on the same day.

Recent polls suggest that Giffey may lose her job as mayor but the Social Democrats would still play a key role in any effort to form a stable coalition. The SPD has led the government in Germany’s most populous city since 2001 and is currently in coalition with the Greens and the Left party, which traces its roots to East Germany’s communists.

If the SPD performs poorly, it would reflect badly on Scholz, who has come in for criticism at home and abroad since Russia invaded Ukraine over a perceived lack of strong leadership and reluctance to do more to help the government in Kyiv.

The Social Democrats are trailing the conservative CDU/CSU alliance at the national level, polls show, although Scholz’s personal approval rating is still significantly higher than any of the main opposition figures, including Friedrich Merz, the chairman of the Christian Democratic Union.

Even if they win in Berlin, the CDU and its main candidate Kai Wegner lack the support of the Greens and the Left for any viable coalition. That means Giffey could cling on or she could be replaced as mayor by the Greens top Berlin lawmaker, Bettina Jarasch.

Preliminary results are expected at 6 p.m. Sunday in Berlin. The CDU is projected to win the biggest share of the vote on 25%, up from 18% in 2021, according to a poll by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen for public broadcaster ZDF published late Thursday.

The SPD is seen in second place with 21%, the same as in 2021, with the Greens third on 17%, compared with 19%, the poll of 1,059 Berlin voters conducted Feb. 8-9 showed. The Left party was projected to get 11%, the far-right AfD 10% and the pro-business Free Democrats 6%.

The national vote in Berlin must also be repeated but only at about a fifth of the city’s 2,257 polling stations, according to a decision by Bundestag lawmakers in November. No date has been set pending possible court challenges.

There are three more regional elections in Germany this year — in the city state of Bremen on May 14 and in Bavaria and Hesse on October 8. The next national election is due in the fall of 2025.

--With assistance from Chris Reiter.

Most Read from Bloomberg Businessweek

• UK Getting It ‘Totally Wrong’ on Soaring Child Care Costs

• The Pandemic Sent US Consumers Back to the Sugar Bowl

• Tech Holdouts Are Making Life Hell for Their Colleagues

• Brazil’s Richest Man Loses Billions as His M&A Machine Breaks Down

• How a Big Short Cost India’s Adani Empire $100 Billion

©2023 Bloomberg L.P.