Scotland take on Albania with bare bones squad but a play-off place remains in their grasp

Scotland’s squad for the Nations League double-header away versus Albania on Saturday night and against Israel at Hampden Park on Tuesday has become the football equivalent of the Arctic ice sheet. The scale of erosion has become so alarming that it is possible to wonder if it will melt altogether.

Kieran Tierney became the latest casualty when the medics ruled him out of contention on Friday, hard on the heels of the departing John McGinn. The scant consolation for McLeish is that he does not now have to tinker with the team shape to accommodate both Tierney and Andrew Robertson at left-back.

Yet despite what looks like a biblical curse visited upon the manager – and the byzantine complexity of the Nations League format, the equation that would take Scotland through to a Euro 2020 play-off remains simple. If they avoid defeat in Shkoder and beat Israel at Hampden, the Scots qualify.

Most outsiders, looking at the calibre of the Scots’ opponents – Albania are 60th in the Fifa rankings, while the Israelis are a distant 91st – would surmise that the task should be comparatively simple, but Group 1 of League C has so far operated on the principle of Buggins’ turn. Albania have beaten Israel, Israel won the return match, Scotland beat Albania and Israel beat Scotland.

What’s more, the Scottish display in their 2-1 defeat Israel was abysmal. When McLeish succeeded Gordon Strachan as manager in February he did so off the back of the 10th failed qualifying campaign since 1998.

Strachan, though, had taken the Scots to the brink of a play-off until a 2-2 draw with Slovenia left them short. By contrast, McLeish’s second spell in charge has yielded only two victories from seven outings, one a friendly against Hungary in Budapest and the other at home over Albania.

To be fair, the quality of opponents in his other friendly fixtures was daunting – Peru and Mexico away and Belgium and Portugal at home – and the manager has drafted players with little or no senior international experience as part of the process of transition, hence the inclusion of Graeme Shinnie, Ryan Christie, Ryan Fraser, Gary Mackay-Steven, Kevin McDonald and Oli McBurnie.

Moreover, the number of players unavailable would yield a decent squad in itself. Craig Gordon, Jon McLaughlin, Ryan Jack, Stephen O’Donnell, Kieran Tierney, Charlie Mulgrew, Michael Devlin, Christophe Berra, John Souttar, Kevin McDonald, John McGinn, James McArthur, Robert Snodgrass, Leigh Griffiths, Steven Naismith and Matt Ritchie were either out of the reckoning beforehand or have been ruled out since the squad was announced.

Some are genuine crocks – and the departures of Tierney and McGinn in the last two days have been severe blows - but McArthur has quit the international scene at the age of 31, Snodgrass has put his participation on hold and Ritchie has asked not to be considered for personal reasons that remain private between him and McLeish.

Speculation persists that some players are unenthusiastic about Scotland duty, or at least service under the current regime. That, plus low attendances at Hampden Park and a lack of momentum on the field, is a combination which McLeish must banish, otherwise the sceptics who were unimpressed by his appointment will howl for his head.

Still, the manager can deploy a team capable of achieving the play-offs, given an adequate game plan and suitable motivation. Despite the loss of two goalkeepers in Gordon and McLaughlin, Allan McGregor would have been the No1 choice.

In a back four with Scott McKenna and David Bates as the central pair and Andrew Robertson at left-back, Callum Paterson could be asked to fill in at right-back, a position he played at Hearts, although McLeish has spoken of him this week as a possible leader of the line in attack.

A strong Celtic presence is likely to be seen in midfield, with James Forrest on the right with Callum McGregor and Ryan Christie in the two central midfield position. If Fraser or Mackay-Steven is added to their left and Matt Phillips or Johnny Russell is asked to play off Steven Fletcher in attack, McLeish has a serviceable starting selection, although if more injuries are sustained in Albania, he would be down to the bare bones.

At the age of 25, John Fleck – hailed as a wünderkind while a teenager with Rangers – has been called up and could get his first cap, but not in Albania after it was deemed that it was too late to alter travel arrangements and that the Sheffield United midfielder should not fly with the squad to Tirana but join them on their return on Sunday.

By then, Scotland’s prospects will have been brightened or cast into gloom by events in Shkoder. A repeat of the form the Scots displayed in Haifa would likely spell the end for their play-off hopes but another win over Albania would be a significant psychological boost for both manager and players – not to mention the office bearers of the Scottish Football Association.

Match details

Albania (probable) Strakosha; Flysaj, Djimsiti, Mauraj, Binaku; Xhaka, Basha, Menushaj; Uzuni, Balaj, Grezda. 

Scotland (probable) A McGregor; Paterson, McKenna, Bates, Robertson; Christie, C McGregor; Forrest, Russell, Fraser or Mackay-Steven; Fletcher.

Referee V Bezborodov (Russia).

TV Sky Sports Main Event, 7.45pm.