Scotland and Wales’ potential path to World Cup final at Qatar 2022

Scotland and Wales fans still don’t know whether their teams will be heading to Qatar to participate in the 2022 FIFA World Cup this winter, but their path to the final is now clear after the group stage draw was concluded in Doha.

Teams must navigate three matches in the group phase and then three further knock-out fixtures in Qatar before the trophy is up for grabs on 18 December at the 80,000-seater Lusail Stadium - with both the Dragons and the Tartan Army learning on Friday that they will face England, Iran and USA in Group B if they prevail in the play-off.

Every other European qualification spot has already been confirmed, but Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has prevented Scotland and Wales from completing key fixtures. Steve Clarke’s Scots are due to face the Ukrainians in a delayed play-off semi-final at Hampden Park in June, with Wales then facing the winners in a one-off fixture which will determine who fills the final spot at the 2022 World Cup.

Scotland last played in the tournament in France in 1998, being knocked out in the first round from a group containing Morocco, Norway, and eventual losing finalists Brazil. Scotland have never made it past the group stage at the World Cup in eight attempts.

Wales, meanwhile, have only taken part in the World Cup once before, reaching the quarter-finals in Sweden in 1958 before being beaten by Pele’s Brazil, who went on to win.

Here is the route one of Scotland or Wales will be faced with to break new ground and set a national record at the World Cup, if either one sees off Ukraine or beats the other to reach Qatar.

Group stage

As noted, Friday’s group pitted the winners of the European play-off path against seeds England, Concacaf qualifiers USA and, out of Asian qualifying, Iran.

They will play in Group B, facing USA in the opening game on 21 November, followed by games against Iran (25 Nov) and England (29 Nov).

The full World Cup group stage draw and fixture list can be found here.

If Scotland/Wales top the group:

Last-16

Given they would be fourth seeds, it would be a remarkable feat for Scotland or Wales to top the group in the first place.

But should they progress, the winners of Group B face the runners-up of Group A - which contains hosts Qatar, Ecuador, Senegal and Netherlands. If the Dutch are favourites there, African champions Senegal might be the most likely candidates to go through in second.

Quarters

Further progression would see a game against the winners of Group D - the strongest side of which is France - against Group C’s runners-up. Mexico or Poland seem most likely to take that spot initially, but France should beat either one so it would mean Scotland or Wales, should they get this far, face the reigning World Cup champions.

Semis

Into fantasy land, should the last four beckon, it’s the best side from the bottom half of the draw they’ll effectively face. It could reasonably be any of Spain, Belgium, Germany, Portugal or Cameroon. If it’s any of Europe’s finest it would be a tough ask - but having theoretically knocked out both African and World champions to reach this stage, who can tell what would happen?!

If Scotland/Wales come second in the group:

Last-16

Reversing the run and putting Wales or Scotland into the top half of the knock-out draw, ending as runners-up would pit them against the winners of A. Netherlands are the most likely bet here.

Quarters

It’s winners of C, runners-up of D to clash and the victor to progress - so here that could mean Argentina against Denmark or Peru, if they win their own qualifier to reach the finals. In all cases, the South Americans would be strong favourites so it could be Lionel Messi and Co against Clarke’s or Page’s finest.

Semis

Should they see off Argentina, it’s perhaps Spain, Germany or Brazil as the most likely semi-final opponents on this side of the draw - a very tough task no matter who makes it this far, let alone for a nation reaching this stage of the World Cup for the very first time. But when the final itself is the big prize on offer, reason and logic don’t always win the day.

Favourites to win 2022 World Cup

Brazil 9/2

France 5/1

England 6/1

Spain 7/1

Argentina 8/1

Germany 17/2

Belgium 9/1

Portugal 10/1

Netherlands 10/1

Denmark 22/1

Uruguay 40/1

Croatia 40/1