Scott Jennings: Tornados, floods and shootings. A Kentucky governor's race amid tragedy.

With one month to go, the Republican primary for governor has moved from low murmur to loud roar with fresh attacks on the front runner and a poll that showed a tightening race among the big three: Daniel Cameron, Kelly Craft and Ryan Quarles. And it is happening against the backdrop of the Old National Bank tragedy in Louisville. God bless the victims, their families and the hero cops who undoubtedly stopped additional bloodshed through their quick action.

The shooting again thrust incumbent Democratic Governor Andy Beshear into the national spotlight as he sought to balance his own anguish after having lost friends in the attack with his role as governor of a state that seems to be under constant duress.

“I’ve been governor during this pandemic, I’ve been governor during tornadoes and floods and minus 45-degree windchills and everything else. And we’ve lost a lot of people during those,” Beshear told CNN. “But calling your friend’s wife who is also your friend to tell her that her husband is gone is among the hardest things I’ve ever done.”

More: Here's where Kentucky governor candidates stand on gun policies after Louisville shootings

How will voters view Andy Beshear?

The question this fall is whether voters will see Beshear as an apolitical comforter-in-chief, reassuring and rallying Kentuckians in times of crisis, or if Republicans can portray him as an extreme liberal ideologue who masks progressive policies behind a facade of “can’t we all just get along?” rhetoric.

In the week following the bank tragedy, Louisville suffered seven more shootings and five more deaths, including two dead in Chickasaw Park on Saturday night. Beshear is under pressure from progressive allies in Louisville to take a firmer stance on gun control than he might be comfortable with, given Kentucky’s pro-Second Amendment lean. It is a tricky topic, as any proposal, while likely cheered in urban Louisville, could portray him as more liberal than the average rural Kentucky voter.

The Republican Governor’s Association has begun testing messages that could redefine Beshear, going straight at him on the issue of sex reassignment surgery for minors “as young as eight or nine years old.” The ad campaign, currently focused in Eastern Kentucky, continues: “It’s radical. Irreversible. And wrong.” This topic—and the adjacent subject matter regarding state Education Commissioner Jason Glass’s views on the use of preferred pronouns in public schools—are the most likely path to redcasting Beshear as an extreme liberal and nationalizing the contest.

Kelly Craft is gaining ground

Craft, who started the race at essentially zero name identification but has now closed to within six points of the front-running Cameron in an Emerson poll released on April 13, has seized on the issue of “woke bureaucrats” who have “hijacked” schools. In a TV spot that featured the highest production value of any released in the GOP primary to date, Craft calls the policies “immoral.” While she doesn’t mention Beshear by name (a missed opportunity, perhaps), her ad and promise to dismantle the Kentucky Department of Education will resonate with Fox News viewers and likely primary voters.

More: Daniel Cameron losing ground to Kelly Craft in Kentucky GOP governor's race, poll shows

Will Daniel Cameron halt Kelly Craft's advance?

Cameron leaned heavily into his faith in his first ad while his PAC has reminded Republicans that he’s endorsed by Donald Trump (and that, pointedly, Craft, who served as Ambassador under Trump, isn’t), information that Cameron allies hope will halt Craft’s advance with undecided voters.

The Cameron campaign’s second ad re-upped footage of protestors on his front yard and touts his law enforcement support. It’s a well-produced reminder of how Cameron built up a deep reservoir of goodwill among Republican voters: by standing up to liberal protestors demanding he take extra-judicial action in the Breonna Taylor case.

Can Ryan Quarles rise to the top?

One candidate feeling better following the poll’s release was Quarles, underfunded compared to his top two competitors but hoping voters recoil from negative ads and default to someone they like and have voted for in the past. He scored 15% in the survey, the only other candidate in double digits.

Will Eric Deters hang in there?

One point of Republican Party chatter is how news organizations and candidates plan to handle Eric Deters. There are numerous planned debates and Deters’ level of ad spending ($127,000 so far) and poll results (6%, good for fourth place) may force the sponsoring media organizations to invite him, depending on their internal guidelines. If he is invited, however, there is an open question about whether the other candidates will appear alongside him given the kind of campaign he’s running.

Deters is a suspended Northern Kentucky attorney who represents a sometimes vulgar “screw it all” style of campaigning. He’s been something of a wild man, including making a video of himself mocking the gravestones of his opponents. Can any moderator or candidate keep him from hijacking a debate broadcast and turning it into a useless night of Wrestlemania? Most Republicans are dubious.

Scott Jennings is a Republican adviser, CNN political contributor and partner at RunSwitch Public Relations. He can be reached at Scott@RunSwitchPR.com or on Twitter @ScottJenningsKY.

This article originally appeared on Louisville Courier Journal: Tornados, floods, shootings: A Kentucky governor's race amid tragedy