Scouting report, prediction: Auburn basketball's showdown with Kentucky Wildcats

AUBURN — There's no shortage of discussion about the potentially historic scale of this Auburn vs. Kentucky meeting.

The nitty-gritty elements of the matchup are just as compelling.

With first place in the SEC on the line, here are three storylines and a prediction as No. 2 Auburn (17-1, 6-0 SEC) hosts No. 12 Kentucky (15-3, 5-1) on Saturday (12 p.m., CBS) at Auburn Arena.

Tshiebwe vs. Kessler

If you want a battle of the bigs, it doesn't get much better than this. The 7-foot-1 Kessler has the height but will require a little extra fortitude to handle Kentucky's 6-9 tank, Oscar Tshiebwe, who averages 16.1 points. Kessler is No. 2 in the country in blocks; Tshiebwe leads college basketball in rebounds per game (14.8) and offensive rebounds per game (5.22).

Auburn has been at its worst when it gets out-rebounded (remember those double-digit deficits to underdogs Ole Miss and Saint Louis?). As a team, Kentucky averages 13.7 more rebounds per game than its opponents — the nation's best margin on the glass.

Overmatched opponents such as Georgia had no choice but to put two bodies on Kessler in the paint to avoid easy post feeds. But Tshiebwe can neutralize any big man single-handedly, and that'll have a ripple effect on Auburn's guards trying to manufacture offense. Kentucky coach John Calipari praised Auburn's ability to create lobs; no doubt he will be prioritizing that on defense.

Weak spots hard to find

By the numbers, this Kentucky team does just about everything effectively. It leads the SEC and ranks 16th in the country with a 297-to-199 ratio of assists to turnovers.

It was the No. 3 shooting team in the country until an abysmal 36% performance at Texas A&M dropped the Wildcats to 49.8%. That's still No. 8 in college basketball, and as Calipari pointed out, "I'm ecstatic because you need to know when you don't shoot it, well, you can still win. You'll figure out a way, and that means you have fighters on the court."

AUBURN-KENTUCKY: 6 years ago, Auburn basketball stunned Kentucky to end long losing streak. A rivalry was born

BASKETBALL, GYMNASTICS: What a moment to be at Auburn: Marveling at the historic sports weekend ahead

The Wildcats are No. 40 nationally with a 39.89% shooting mark allowed this season. They're No. 8 in scoring offense and No. 3 in scoring margin, winning games by an average of 20.1 points. According to Kenpom's adjusted offensive efficiency, they average 1.19 points per possession (No. 4).

Interestingly, they only attempt 18.7 outside shots per game, the third-fewest in the SEC. That's a stark contrast to Auburn, which averages 26.2 and attempted a season-high 36 on Wednesday. In fact, 61.8% of Kentucky's scoring comes from two-pointers — only four teams have a higher percentage. Of the limited 3-pointers taken, the Wildcats make a solid 35.3%. They'll pound the ball inside: Auburn will want to put its nation-leading block percentage to use.

A guard trio to rival Auburn's

Auburn coach Bruce Pearl is quite familiar with Kentucky standout point guard Tyty Washington "because we recruited him pretty heavily." The freshman is averaging 14.2 points, 4.6 assists and 4.2 rebounds.

"One of those players you'd say were one of the top-five most improved basketball players his senior year of high school (to) his freshman year of college," Pearl said. "He can do it all."

Washington plays fast and presents the toughest matchup challenge yet for Auburn's Zep Jasper. And like the Tigers, Kentucky has a pair of thrilling point guards. Sahvir Wheeler averages 10.4 points and 7.1 assists. He was K.D. Johnson's teammate at Georgia last season, but Pearl compared his game more to Auburn's Wendell Green: "Wheeler is such an unusual coverage because he's so fast. He doesn't shoot it like Wendell, but he can get downhill like Wendell."

Kentucky does have someone who shoots it like Wendell, though. Kellen Grady has an SEC-leading 43% mark outside the arc, completing the Kentucky guard triumvirate.

Prediction

Auburn 79, Kentucky 77: Coin toss. Auburn needs to shoot better than it did Wednesday. Giving the slight edge to the Tigers based on the hostility of Auburn Arena.

This article originally appeared on Montgomery Advertiser: Auburn basketball vs. Kentucky Wildcats: Scouting report, prediction