Scouting report, score prediction: Mississippi State football covers spread vs. Kentucky
STARKVILLE — Mississippi State football is going to get the full test in its game at Kentucky.
The Wildcats are expected to have quarterback Will Levis back, per coach Mark Stoops on the SEC coaches teleconference Wednesday. It’s a night game at Kroger Field. Kentucky expects a packed crowd for homecoming.
If any questions linger about how good No. 17 Mississippi State (5-1, 2-1 SEC) is after beating Texas A&M and Arkansas, they can be answered Saturday (6:30 p.m., SEC Network).
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It’s also an opportunity for No. 22 Kentucky (4-2, 1-2) to answer doubts after back-to-back losses against Ole Miss and South Carolina. Behind their first-round quarterback, the Wildcats were expected to compete with Georgia for the SEC East this season.
Midway through the season, Kroger Field is the scene of a matchup where contenders and pretenders can be determined.
Mississippi State offense vs. Kentucky defense
Kentucky is 12th in the SEC with nine sacks. However, the lack of pressure hasn’t slowed the Wildcats' defensive effort.
UK ranks third in the SEC in total defense and pass defense, and fifth in run defense. However, Kentucky is seeing just 27.5 pass attempts per game from its opponents. Mississippi State throws nearly 50 passes per game — most in the SEC.
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The Bulldogs, behind quarterback Will Rogers, are tearing apart opposing defenses. Even the drop-eight defense, which slowed down MSU in Leach’s first two seasons, has proven ineffective.
MSU is utilizing the run game to get chunk yardage against three-man fronts and then turning to the passing game for big plays.
Perhaps MSU's worst offensive performance under Leach came in Lexington two years ago. MSU’s only points came off a safety in a 24-2 loss.
KJ Costello, who threw four interceptions, was replaced by Rogers making his collegiate debut. Rogers threw two interceptions on 15 passes.
Mississippi State defense vs. Kentucky offense
While much of the focus is centered on Levis’s play and availability, Kentucky’s offensive struggles don’t completely fall on him.
Kentucky is last in the SEC with 92.5 rushing yards per game — 14 fewer yards than Mississippi State. MSU’s rushing defense has taken a step back from last season, but the offense has been effective in building early leads and eliminating teams’ ability to run.
If Mississippi State’s defense can maintain an edge early, it could set up for another easy win. That’ll happen if MSU gets to Levis.
Kentucky has allowed an SEC-high 25 sacks. That is on pace for 54 sacks in 13 games. Only one SEC team (Tennessee 2021) has allowed more than 40 sacks in a season since 2016.
Special teams
Mississippi State’s kicking struggles may be over because Leach could stop trying. MSU has missed four extra points, so Leach said Monday he might just start going for two.
Field goal attempts seem to be trending downward as well. Mississippi State is 10th in the SEC with six attempts, one more than the SEC low. MSU’s 13 fourth-down attempts are one below the SEC high.
Prediction
Mississippi State 30, Kentucky 20: Mississippi State’s ability to generate pressure on Levis will allow MSU to stick to its routine. The Bulldogs will build an early lead and force Kentucky to get away from its running game. At this point, it’s hard to envision any team outside of Alabama or Georgia holding MSU below 30 points. MSU’s points will come on four touchdowns and three successful two-point conversions.
Stefan Krajisnik is the Mississippi State beat writer for the Clarion Ledger. Contact him at skrajisnik@gannett.com or follow him on Twitter @skrajisnik3.
This article originally appeared on Mississippi Clarion Ledger: Mississippi State football vs. Kentucky: Scouting report, prediction
