Scouting report, score prediction: Mississippi State football covers spread vs. Arkansas
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STARKVILLE — This week has been a chess match between No. 23 Mississippi State and its upcoming opponent No. 25 Arkansas.
The Razorbacks might be without starting quarterback KJ Jefferson on Saturday (11 a.m., SEC Network). He also might be available. His status is uncertain, and Arkansas (3-2, 1-2 SEC) has done its part in keeping things under wraps.
For Mississippi State coach Mike Leach and defensive coordinator Zach Arnett, it doesn’t matter what Arkansas is saying.
Mississippi State (4-1, 1-1) hasn’t beaten Arkansas with Leach at the helm. The Bulldogs will take their chances preparing for Jefferson and adjusting to whoever may be under center instead.
“I anticipate (Jefferson) is going to trot out there for the first snap and be just fine,” Arnett said Wednesday. “He’s a heck of a football player. Amazing some of the things he does on the football field with the ball in his hands.”
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Mississippi State defense vs. Arkansas offense
Regardless of who’s at quarterback, Arkansas is going to rely on its running game.
The Razorbacks rank ninth in the nation with 232 rushing yards per game. They lean heavily on Raheim Sanders, whose 121 rushing yards per game rank seventh in the nation.
“Their ability in their zone run game to stretch you horizontally, see the seam and then get north and explode through the hole – tremendous job,” Arnett said.”
Mississippi State’s rushing defense has taken a step back. The Bulldogs allow 118 rushing yards per game, ranking just outside the top 40. MSU finished No. 12 in the nation last season.
State has had success getting into the backfield to generate pressure on quarterbacks such as LSU’s Jayden Daniels and Texas A&M’s Max Johnson. But in those games, the Bulldogs have allowed 343 combined rushing yards.
Arnett’s toughest task awaits.
“There ain’t a run play they don’t have that they don’t excel at running,” Arnett said. “It’s to be expected when your head coach is an O-line coach by trade. They impose their will on teams at the line of scrimmage and typically wear out the defense.”
Mississippi State offense vs. Arkansas defense
Mississippi State quarterback Will Rogers keeps it simple when describing which defense he anticipates opponents throwing at the Air Raid offense. The drop eight is coming.
“Yeah, 100% that’s what we’re guessing,” Rogers said Tuesday. “But you have to be prepared for everything.”
Arkansas defensive coordinator Barry Odom has thrown the drop eight at MSU the previous two seasons. It worked well in 2020, when MSU scored 14 points in a loss.
It was effective for the first quarter last season, but then Rogers began to pick it apart. He completed 36 of 48 passes for 417 yards with four touchdowns and an interception. Had MSU’s kickers made the three field goals they missed, State would’ve put up 37 points.
LSU had the best success against Leach’s offense so far by mixing the drop eight with pressure and an overloaded box.
Special teams
Both teams have had trustworthy special teams this season. One area where Mississippi State could excel is in punt return.
Arkansas is last in the SEC with 38 yards per punt, which isn’t a good sign for a team with the third-most punts.
Mississippi State has fully turned to freshman Zavion Thomas for punt returns after Austin Williams’ muff at LSU. Thomas is averaging nearly 13 yards per return, ranking fourth in the SEC.
Final score prediction
Mississippi State 35, Arkansas 17: MSU has made up for its struggles on run defense by building an early lead to force teams into passing. Regardless of who’s at quarterback for the Hogs, that’s not a good sign considering the pass rush the Bulldogs can generate. Jefferson playing on a week of limited practice or a backup stepping in doesn’t bode well for Arkansas to stay out of an early hole. Mississippi State (-9.5) wins and covers again. The Bulldogs are 4-1 against the spread this season.
Stefan Krajisnik is the Mississippi State beat writer for the Clarion Ledger. Contact him at skrajisnik@gannett.com or follow him on Twitter @skrajisnik3.
This article originally appeared on Mississippi Clarion Ledger: Mississippi State football vs. Arkansas: Scouting report, prediction
