Scouting report: Toledo football at Massachusetts
Sep. 29—It's a beautiful time of year to visit New England, the nation's fall foliage capital.
But the Toledo Rockets aren't going to Amherst, Mass., for a sightseeing tour. It's all business for UT.
The season's trajectory is pointing upward at the moment, and a solid performance over UMass will continue building confidence for the Rockets. Toledo is nearly a four-touchdown favorite over the winless Minutemen, who haven't won a game since September of 2019.
Jason Candle isn't interested in what should happen, though, especially after what transpired against Colorado State. There will be no getting fat and happy at the Larimer Athletic Complex this week. Instead, UT will prepare as if it's facing one of the best teams in the nation, pushing hard against any semblance of a letdown.
When Toledo has the ball
For an offensive line that's struggled to create vast open spaces, there are few opponents Toledo would rather face than UMass, which is ranked 127th nationally (242.2 yards per game) against the run. If the bulky guys up front want to feel good, this is a game it can be done. The combination of Bryant Koback and Dequan Finn could present significant issues for UMass.
The Minutemen pass defense isn't much better, ranking 119th thanks to 291.3 yards per game, seven total touchdowns, and zero interceptions. Finn and Carter Bradley have yet to flash their full potential this season. Perhaps this is the time.
When Massachusetts has the ball
Toledo's smashmouth defense is not a desirable matchup for a UMass offense that ranks 123rd in scoring (16.5 points per game), 120th in total offense (305.3 yards), 115th in rushing (100 yards), and 90th in passing (205.3 yards). It's a lopsided matchup that foreshadows a long afternoon for the Minutemen.
Quarterback Brady Olson, a freshman, has completed 55.6 percent of his passes for 588 yards, five touchdowns, and three interceptions. His favorite target is Charlotte transfer Rico Arnold, who has 12 receptions for 181 yards and one touchdown. Running back Ellis Merriweather has 231 yards on 43 carries, an overage of 5.4 yards per rush.
Special teams
Coastal Carolina blocked a UMass punt last week and the punter dropped another that resulted in a safety. In Week 2, UMass gave up a kick return for a touchdown against Boston College.
The Rockets' special teams units have been a strength, despite a punt return for a touchdown against Colorado State. Bailey Flint and Thomas Cluckey are as good as any punter/kicker combination in the MAC.
Toledo will win if...
The Rockets bring home a 'W' by showing up in Amherst on Saturday. They're superior in all three phases of the game and have way more talent than UMass. Not even a letdown would result in defeat. But there's still something to be said for going on the road and taking care of business, regardless of who the opponent is. If UT wins but looks sloppy, the net result isn't positive for the Rockets. If they control all four quarters and look good doing so, the expectations will only grow.
Massachusetts will win if...
A UMass victory has to start with a Herculean defensive effort. A successful shootout is less than likely, so the Minutemen would need a bevy of turnovers and some special teams heroics, similar to what Bowling Green did at Minnesota last week. The blueprint to an upset doesn't always include great offense. UMass, however, would be wise to try and sustain drives and keep the ball out of Toledo's hands.
View from the other side
Kyle Grabowski, UMass beat reporter for the Daily Hampshire Gazette
"It's hard to know what to make of the UMass football team in 2021. On the one hand, they are one of the worst teams in the country by many rankings and metrics. College Football News has the Minutemen 130th out of 130 teams, and the Athletic slots them 129th. UMass allows 47.8 points per game, the worst in the country, and boasts the third-worst rushing defense in the nation (243.3 yards per game). But the team has also played a challenging early-season slate: two Power 5 opponents in Pittsburgh and Boston College followed by a perennial bowl contender in Eastern Michigan and then a trip to top-20 Coastal Carolina.
"The question remains: how will the Minutemen do punching against an opponent their own size in former MAC opponent Toledo? True freshman quarterback Brady Olson has shown flashes of brilliance mixed with common mistakes an 18-year-old makes at that level. Injuries are ravaging UMass' secondary. They'll be without starting cornerbacks Josh Wallace and Donte Lindsay. The Minutemen have been able to score well enough at home, but errors at crucial times have kept them from keeping pace. UMass' early gauntlet doesn't get easier." Prediction: Toledo 38, UMass 17
First Published September 29, 2021, 9:29am
