Late-season Atlantic tropical activity could pose trouble for US, Caribbean
The tropical Atlantic is showing no signs of taking a long winter's nap just yet. AccuWeather meteorologists say lingering tropical activity is forecast well into November in parts of the Atlantic as well as the Caribbean Sea.
The chance that a system near Bermuda could become a tropical depression or storm had diminished substantially as of Saturday due to disruptive winds and the disturbance's projected path over progressively cooler waters.
However, more than one tropical area of concern over the next couple of weeks could develop in the Caribbean, and there remains a possibility, based on long-range statistical forecast data, that a system could eventually approach the southeastern United States.
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This image reveals an eruption of showers and thunderstorms over the southeastern part of the Caribbean Sea on Saturday, Oct. 29, 2022. (AccuWeather Enhanced RealVue™ satellite) |
The development of a tropical system depends on whether or not a well-defined center of circulation forms around a low-pressure area. A tropical depression could form if maximum sustained winds remain under 39 mph. If maximum winds reach 39 mph or greater, the fledgling storm would be classified by the National Hurricane Center as a tropical or subtropical storm.
As October draws to a close and November begins, a batch of showers and thunderstorms, commonly referred to as a tropical wave in the weather community, will move slowly westward across the Caribbean. On Friday, this wave was causing a pulse of heavy showers and thunderstorms in the southeastern part of the Caribbean.
Water temperatures in the 80s and low disruptive winds in the atmosphere could be enough to slowly nurture this tropical wave and allow development as it moves westward.
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At this time, there are about equal chances for the system to develop as there are not to develop.
There is a medium chance of development of this feature from Saturday through the middle of next week as the system moves westward, according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty.
At the very least, the system will produce drenching showers and thunderstorms as it continues to move westward.
Whether the northern or southern islands of the Caribbean are more affected will depend on the exact position and strength of the disturbance as it moves along. A more organized system could take a route over the middle of the Caribbean or bounce along the Greater Antilles from Puerto Rico to Cuba. A more southern route could bring downpours to the ABC islands and the northern coast of South America.
For this system, it appears a northward path toward the U.S. will be blocked by strong winds and a belt of high pressure that may form, AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Courtney Travis said. As long as these conditions hold on, the most likely path for the system will be westward and into Central America at the end of next week.
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People in Central America should closely monitor the progress of the disturbance as at the very least there is likely to be an uptick in shower and thunderstorm activity by the middle of next week. If an organized tropical system, such as a tropical storm or hurricane, were to push inland over Central America, conditions could be more severe in terms of wind, coastal flooding and rainfall.
In the wake of next week's Caribbean system, there is a chance of additional development in the same body of water where water temperatures are bathlike. At the same time, weather systems farther north will change and shift position.
Long-range forecasters say early indications are that the Caribbean Sea will remain unsettled from the first to second weeks of November with the potential for showers and thunderstorms to organize into one or more tropical systems.
"Any tropical system that develops in the western part of the Caribbean beyond next week could be trouble for the (southeastern) U.S. and, more specifically, Florida," AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said.
It is possible for any new brewing system in the Caribbean from this weekend on to be tugged northeastward or northward. Where such a system develops in the western or eastern Caribbean could determine how much of a threat there is for Florida, if any.
"It looks like there will be a pronounced dip in the jet stream in the Western states, and at the same time, an area of high pressure will build near Bermuda next weekend," Rayno explained.
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If development occurs farther to the east in the Caribbean, meteorologists say there would be concerns for impacts from heavy rain and high winds from a tropical system that could shift away from Florida and toward the eastern Caribbean islands.
For example, a system that tries to organize in the western Caribbean next week might have an opportunity to move northeastward across Cuba and toward southern Florida. On the other hand, if a system tries to organize in the eastern Caribbean next week, it could still be steered northeastward or perhaps toward the northeastern islands from Puerto Rico to the Leewards.
The area from the Caribbean to waters off the southern Atlantic coast of the U.S. is the prime zone for tropical development during the first half of November. Increasing westerly winds over North America tend to steer most of these systems away from the U.S. However, there is some risk from a climatological standpoint alone for the Florida Peninsula, should tropical development occur in the western Caribbean, which is possible from late next week on.
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As of Oct. 28, there have been two tropical depressions, six tropical storms and five hurricanes. The only two major hurricanes -- Fiona and Ian -- were systems that originated in the Caribbean. Both reached Category 4 intensity. Ian's maximum sustained winds peaked at 155 mph just prior to striking southwestern Florida and causing a significant loss of life and great destruction in late September.
With 11 named systems as of late October and a little more than a month to go, the 2022 season is running slightly below the average for this time of year of 13 named systems. However, given the current outlook for the basin over the next couple of weeks, there is potential to catch back up to that number.
Over the course of the year, there are typically 14 named systems, of which seven become hurricanes and three reach major hurricane strength of Category 3 or greater. Hurricane season does not officially end until Nov. 30.
The next three names that could be used to identify storms during the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season are Lisa, Martin and Nicole.
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