New SEC schedule will test Kentucky’s football improvement

From the Kentucky Wildcats perspective, the arrival of Oklahoma and Texas into the Southeastern Conference and the revamped SEC football schedule that debuts in 2024 are going to do one thing for certain:

They are going to test the extent and the endurance of the Mark Stoops-era improvements in the UK football program.

On Wednesday night, the SEC announced the league opponents that each Southeastern Conference team will play in 2024 — the first season in which “Boomer Sooner” and “Hook ’em Horns” will compete in the conference where it just means more.

As promised, starting in 2024 the SEC is no longer split into East and West divisions. The combination of two new teams and the fact league members no longer will be playing fellow division members annually led to some fresh scheduling looks.

Prior to the schedule revamp, Kentucky’s 2024 league slate would have been: Home games: Georgia, Mississippi State, South Carolina, Vanderbilt; Road contests: Arkansas, Florida, Missouri, Tennessee.

Under the new scheduling regime, UK’s 2024 league schedule will be: home games against Auburn, Georgia, South Carolina, Vanderbilt; road contests at Florida, Mississippi, Tennessee, Texas.

Let’s examine what Kentucky gave up on its schedule in comparison to what it is adding:

▪ UK gave up: A road trip to Arkansas.

Since the Razorbacks joined the SEC in 1992, Kentucky is 5-3 vs. the Hogs, including 2-1 in Fayetteville.

▪ UK added: A road trip to Texas.

The Wildcats and Longhorns have met only once, a 7-6 upset victory for No. 11 Texas over Bear Bryant’s No. 6 Cats on Sept. 22, 1951, in Austin.

▪ UK gave up: A road trip to Missouri.

Since the Tigers joined the SEC in 2012, Kentucky is 7-4 vs. Mizzou and has won seven of the past eight meetings. UK is 3-3 vs. Missouri in Columbia since the Tigers came into the Southeastern Conference.

▪ UK added: A road trip to Mississippi.

Kentucky has lost three straight to Ole Miss — by margins of three, one in overtime, and three points — and four of five. The Cats trail in the all-time series 29-14-1.

UK has taken an “L” on its last six trips to Oxford.

▪ UK gave up: A home game with Mississippi State.

The Wildcats have won their last four meetings with the Bulldogs in the venue now known as Kroger Field. Overall, UK and MSU are tied 25-25 in all-time games.

▪ UK added: A home game with Auburn.

Kentucky has lost nine straight home contests vs. Auburn and has not beaten the Tigers in Lexington since a 17-7 victory on Oct. 1, 1966.

Bottom line: Based off of history, the three games Kentucky added for 2024 look tougher for the Wildcats to win than the three contests the Cats gave up would have been.

Two other things about the 2024 SEC football scheduling process were notable.

Greg Sankey’s league office vowed to preserve the league’s preeminent rivalries in 2024. It was, therefore, worth noting that Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, Tennessee and Vanderbilt were the five teams UK has been traditionally playing every year that carried over onto the revamped Kentucky schedule.

If and when the SEC gives in to the inevitable and goes to nine league games with three permanent rivals for each team, does that mean Kentucky’s “three” will come from among the carried-over five?

It was also interesting that the SEC used league records since the last Southeastern Conference expansion in 2012 to take competitive balance into consideration in its 2024 scheduling format (for Oklahoma and Texas, the SEC office used their league marks in the Big 12).

Essentially, the SEC divided its membership into two eight-team tiers based on each program’s league record since 2012. The top tier had, in order, Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma, LSU, Florida, Texas, Texas A&M and Auburn; the second tier had Mississippi State, Missouri, South Carolina, Mississippi, Tennessee, Kentucky, Arkansas and Vanderbilt.

Each SEC team was assigned four games vs. the top tier and four against the second tier.

For UK the fact that the competitive cutoff was 2012 was unfortunate because the Wildcats went 0-8 in the SEC in both 2012 and 2013.

Had the cutoff been 2016, the season in which Kentucky’s ongoing seven-year bowl streak began, UK would have just missed being in the top tier.

With 28 SEC victories since 2016, Kentucky would rank ninth in the 16-team SEC (counting Oklahoma and Texas and their Big 12 league wins), only three victories behind Auburn (31) in eighth.

Since 2016, UK’s 28 league wins are more than Mississippi State (24), Missouri (24), South Carolina (24), Tennessee (24), Mississippi (22), Arkansas (14) and Vanderbilt (10) have compiled.

Even though the SEC has not committed to a football scheduling format beyond 2024, next season’s schedule likely provides Kentucky a glimpse of its long-term future. UK league football schedules going forward figure to regularly be more arduous than what the Wildcats have been facing in the SEC East in recent seasons.

That is why, whatever scheduling arrangement the Southeastern Conference ultimately settles on, the new slates are going to test just how deep the roots of Kentucky football improvement run.

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