Can a second ANCHOR payment help NJ Democrats get over the line in November? | Stile

MONROE TOWNSHIP — New Jersey’s top Cash-From-Trenton pitchman, Craig J. Coughlin, came to this purplish bedroom community in the Jersey heartland last Wednesday to tout a tax rebate program that may not be ready to disburse cash for another three years.

But the Assembly speaker also used an appearance at a campaign season town hall to slip in reminders that more cash from an already existing program will be heading to households before Nov. 1 — amid the final throes of the election season.

“We wanted to make sure that we got it to you as fast as we can," the veteran Middlesex County Democrat said, referring to the second ANCHOR rebate, planned for distribution to taxpayers this fall.

Under normal circumstances, the next set of checks would hit bank accounts next year.

But earlier this month, the administration of Gov. Phil Murphy announced a new normal: A second round of ANCHOR payments will be distributed this fall. And the new gifts — ostensibly for property tax relief — will be even more generous than the infusion of cash delivered in the spring. Senior homeowners who received $1,000 earlier in the year can expect $1,250 in the weeks ahead.

That's far from a bad day at the bank.

“We wanted to do more," Coughlin said.

What are the aspirations for Round 2 of ANCHOR?

In New Jersey's history of cash-for-votes, the pre-November cash-for-vote plan falls somewhere on the spectrum closer to Gov. Brendan T. Byrne’s creation of the Homestead rebate to help salvage his come-from-the-bottom reelection win in 1977.

The checks that went out that fall proved popular with voters and helped assuage anger at the newly minted state income tax, which Byrne had only recently signed into law. Those $350 checks were so popular that Byrne officials ingeniously decided to mail out applications for the following year's rebate right before Election Day.

In effect, the program amounted to Byrne saying, “If you liked that first no-strings-attached pile of cash you just got, there’s more of that on the horizon. But first, I’ll need your vote.”

And it worked. His Republican opponent, state Sen. Raymond Bateman, discovered his application in his mailbox the day before the election. As soon as he saw it, he realized he had no chance of winning.

"That was the nail in the coffin," said Bateman's son, former state Sen. Christopher "Kip" Bateman, R-Somerset.

But the early Round 2 of ANCHOR takes things a step further. This round of the rebate program dispenses with the wait for next year and dispenses with the application. If you have already filed — and haven’t changed your address and other details — the state promises to electronically send the beefed-up checks to your account. That should happen around the same time you are sealing up your mail-in ballot or driving to an early-voting station.

The extra money will just be another factor for Garden State voters still sizing up candidates for the 120 seats in the Legislature on November's ballots.

Yet Democrats deny any attempt to buy votes with rebates and say the decision to pump out Round 2 in the fall reflects an internal administration effort to find ways to speed up the distribution of rebates to homeowners. Officials said the first round in the spring provided them with the critical data validating the eligibility of 1.3 million homeowners who received the ANCHOR checks. Another 400,000 could still be eligible.

So, officials reasoned, if the delivery system is now in place, why make people wait until next year for property tax relief when money is available now and they could benefit from it sooner?

“You have critics who not only voted against ANCHOR, they also complained last year that the payments were taking too long to arrive, and now they’re complaining that relief is coming out too soon,’’ said Jennifer Sciortino, a Murphy administration spokeswoman.

Will StayNJ happen?: Craig Coughlin's traveling rebate show has many miles still to travel

Democrats anxious — in a minefield of disinformation

Still, the rushed Round 2 of ANCHOR — an acronym for Affordable New Jersey Communities for Homeowners and Renters — also reflects the anxiety rippling through the New Jersey Democratic Party, which has held both houses of the Legislature for nearly two decades. New Jersey's Republicans have shown signs of resurgence. The GOP surprised the political establishment by flipping seven seats in 2021 and dethroning powerful Democrat Stephen Sweeney from his Senate president perch.

In the two years since, Republicans have been stoking their base with a broad “anti-woke” messaging targeting transgender children under the guise of “parental rights," accusing Murphy and allies of killing whales and maybe the shore economy with a push to install wind turbines off the Jersey Shore, and accusing Murphy officials of banning gas-powered stoves.

The Republican playbook as we head into this fall's campaign season amounts to a huge distortion field of misinformation, hysteria and thinly concealed homophobia. Some Democrats see danger in the GOP attacks and fear they could draw away independents and some Democratic voters, especially in a handful of competitive districts. A Monmouth University poll released last week showed that ignoring the issue of parental rights could become a political liability. That only intensified Democrats' rising concerns about their prospects in November.

Democratic Party officials, meanwhile, have yet to craft a cohesive message to counter aggressive Republican talking points. Still, their party controls state coffers — now flush with a $10 billion surplus. An infusion of fresh ANCHOR rebates just might douse the fire, some Democrats hope.

Will StayNJ ever pay off?: Craig Coughlin has a StayNJ windfall to sell to seniors

Monroe, microcosm of NJ Democrats' anxieties

That thinking also helps explain the primary reason Coughlin took his town hall campaign to the Monroe Township Senior Center. There, before close to 75 residents who packed the room, the Assembly speaker outlined the other rebate program waiting in the wings: StayNJ, which pledges to slash property taxes in senior households earning up to $500,000 by 50% — up to a maximum of $6,500. Democratic lawmakers in Trenton created the plan, largely under Coughlin’s guidance, and Murphy signed it into law in June.

Monroe, in the 14^th Legislative District, is just the kind of town that worries Democrats as November looms. In 2020, President Joe Biden beat Donald Trump by 9 points in Monroe. A year later, Murphy squeaked past Republican challenger Jack Ciattarelli by just 806 votes.

So it came as no surprise that some Republican officials filtered into the senior center, including the GOP nominee for the state Senate in the 14th, Patricia Johnson, who is challenging longtime incumbent Democratic state Sen. Linda Greenstein, who joined Coughlin on stage for his presentation.

Coughlin spent much of his time explaining how StayNJ will eventually work once it is up and running by January 2026. The rebate has a long road ahead. First, a commission needs to consolidate it with other rebate programs, including ANCHOR, and that is going to cost a lot of money — money that many economists and state budget veterans doubt will be available when it's time for the program's launch.

That led some in the crowd to ask: Why not do it now? Especially when the state is sitting on a $10 billion surplus? Why wait if you can’t guarantee its future? The idea of doing it now rather than later was proposed just days earlier by Johnson and her running mates.

“If, in 2026 ... if the surplus flips into a deficit, does the next administration have the right to flip the whole thing?” asked Joseph Attanasio, a retired fiscal analyst.

Coughlin said there are many complicated details to iron out. He also stuck to his arguments that boiled down to this: Under the recent Democratic stewardship, New Jersey's financially strapped public employee pension system has been put on a track to solvency, and the state has come close to fully funding its public schools.

Those were priorities — as was the ambitious plan to help seniors stay here rather than flee to low-cost states in the South and West.

“It’s about a commitment; it’s a commitment to seniors," Coughlin replied to Attanasio. “I’ve been around a long time. I can’t imagine anyone voting to eliminate” a rebate program benefiting seniors.

Greenstein, for her part, also sought to reassure the audience that the Legislature will make sure the money will be there to finance the generous rebate when the time comes.

“In all my years in the Legislature, I've never seen a situation where we haven't found money for something that we want, even if it's very large," she said from the stage. “I guess the expression is 'taking from Peter to pay Paul,' but we do a lot of moving money around.”

That kind of candor about the Trenton art of budget scrambling failed to persuade Linda Kinsey, 72, a retired business analyst for an insurance company. Sure, she said, she would like more help with property taxes, but at the expense of what, exactly? Higher medical costs? Will it lead to other tax increases to cover the cost?

“You can’t make promises for the future," she said.

Regardless of those concerns, the anxious Democrats are plowing full steam ahead. A state Democratic committee flier sent to homes in the neighboring 16^th Legislative District last week made it seem that StayNJ is a done deal and on its way.

“Senator Andrew Zwicker and Assemblyman Roy Freiman cut property taxes in half for seniors," the flier said. “Providing New Jersey seniors with the freedom to stay in the community they love, close to the people they love.”

Charlie Stile is a veteran New Jersey political columnist. For unlimited access to his unique insights into New Jersey’s political power structure and his powerful watchdog work, please subscribe or activate your digital account today.

Email: stile@northjersey.com 

This article originally appeared on NorthJersey.com: NJ ANCHOR rebate: Democrats hope payments help 2023 election