Will the Second Arab Spring Go the Way of the First?

Mohammed Ayoob
Reuters

Mohammed Ayoob

Security, Africa

A repeat of the Egyptian scenario is possible for both Algeria and Sudan.

Will the Second Arab Spring Go the Way of the First?

It is quite possible that democracy movements in Sudan and Algeria may go the way of their predecessors that appeared to herald the Arab Spring in 2011. With the exception of Tunisia, where the jury is still out, all other Arab Spring countries either returned to autocratic rule or descended into anarchy. The largest of them, Egypt, saw its revolution aborted by the clever machinations of the military top brass and the strategic errors committed by the Muslim Brotherhood that briefly came to power after the overthrow of Mubarak. Two days after Mubarak’s fall in February 2011 I had published an article titled “The Tyrant is Dead, Long Live the Military,” which predicted that Mubarak’s removal would not mean the end of the military-dominated system and that the military brass would continue to hold power one way or another. Unfortunately, my prediction came true and Egypt returned to autocratic rule far more stifling than was the case under Hosni Mubarak.

Read full article