Second poll shows tight race between Tate Reeves and Brandon Presley for MS governor

A second consecutive poll is indicating that the race for Governor of Mississippi between Republican Gov. Tate Reeves and Democrat Public Service Commissioner Brandon Presley may go down to the wire.

On the heels of a Mississippi Today/Siena College poll last month, which showed Reeves leading Presley by 4%, a poll released Monday by Tulchin Research gave a 4% lead to Presley. Both polls put the race within their margins of error.

Tulchin Research was commissioned to conduct the poll between Jan. 21 and Jan. 25 by the Southern Poverty Law Center Action Fund and a political action committee affiliated with the Alabama-based civil rights group. Poll aggregator FiveThirtyEight gives Tulchin a B/C ranking but has not analyzed one of its polls since 2018. In the three 2018 polls it did look at, Tulchin overestimated the Republican vote-share twice and the Democrat share once.

The Tulchin poll — which put Presley at 47%, Reeves at 43% and left 10% undecided — also found that more than 55% of voters had heard "a lot" about the state's welfare fraud scandal. Twenty-nine percent of respondents said they had heard "some," and 9% said they had heard "only a little." Just 7% of respondents said they had not heard about it. Sixty-four percent of respondents said they had an unfavorable view of Reeves' response to the fraud, with 46% saying that their view was "very unfavorable."

As with all polls, the phrasing of questions can skew results. In terms of Reeves' response to the welfare fraud scandal, pollsters included this line in their question, "Governor Tate Reeves fired an attorney investigating the matter, which some people see as further efforts to cover it up."

Reeves has said the attorney was not fired, but his contract was not extended. The state then hired Jones Walker, a large firm, to replace the attorney in the civil case.

The potential for a close race in Mississippi has already led to national headlines, less than two weeks after candidate filing closed. While it is still the earliest of days for campaigns that hope to win in November, stories in Politico, The Washington Post and The Hill have all characterized the race as surprisingly tight.

A number of outlets wrote similar stories four years ago, when Reeves was facing another relatively popular Democrat, Attorney General Jim Hood. Reeves ultimately won by 5.08%, far less than the 17% margin that Donald Trump won by three years earlier but still enough to keep the governor's mansion in Republican hands.

Whether Presley can do what Hood could not and give Democrats a governorship in one of the most conservative states in America remains to be seen.

Presley took to Twitter on Monday to say that he would not grow complacent based on positive signs from pollsters.

"Even when an early poll shows us winning, I want to EARN every vote with hard work and sweat. I said a month ago that as a candidate and as your Governor, I’ll visit places that the elites don’t care about or know exists. I will be a WORKING Governor and you won’t just see me election year. Thanks to all of you who have brought momentum and electricity to this campaign," he tweeted.

Reeves has not issued a response to either poll but said when he filed last month that he is proud to put his record up against any challenger and confident that the people of Mississippi will support him.

"The great thing about America is that anybody can run for anything they want to run for," Reeves said. "I wish whomever who chooses to take that path, we will get to spend a lot of time talking about my record. It's a record I am proud of. This is going to be a good year and I am looking forward to it."

The primaries will take place in August, with the general election coming on Nov. 7. Mississippi is one of three states with off-year gubernatorial elections this year. The other two are Louisiana and Kentucky, both of which are typically red states that currently have Democratic governors. In Louisiana, incumbent Gov. John Bel Edwards is term-limited and a number of Republicans are lining up hoping to flip control. Meanwhile, Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear faces a long list of Republicans trying to prevent him from gaining a second term.

Presley seems to be looking to other Southern Democratic governors for inspiration. He has hired multiple former Edwards staffers, along with the former campaign manager for North Carolina's Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper. In 2016, Cooper defeated Republican incumbent Gov. Pat McCrory, a path which Presley hopes to follow.

Presley also has Louisiana-native and veteran Democratic consultant James Carville assisting him with fundraising. Carville also raised money for Edwards and Bashear.

This article originally appeared on Mississippi Clarion Ledger: Poll: Mississippi governor race tightens between Reeves and Presley