Two named storms form Sunday as forecasters monitor Emily, Franklin, TD Six, two other disturbances

Shira Moolten, Robin Webb, Abigail Hasebroock, South Florida Sun-Sentinel
Updated ·4 min read

Tropical Storm Franklin formed Sunday afternoon only hours after Tropical Storm Emily as the National Hurricane Center monitored Tropical Depression Six and two other disturbances in a crowded Atlantic.

Tropical Storm Franklin, located over the eastern Caribbean Sea late Sunday night, is heading toward Haiti and the Dominican Republic. A tropical storm warnings were issued for the southern coasts of both countries.

The National Hurricane Center said as of 11 p.m. Sunday that Franklin is forecast to turn north and then, as the season’s second hurricane (following Don from a month ago), northeast and out to sea late in the week.

Tropical Storm Emily formed in the central Atlantic Sunday morning and is expected to weaken and dissipate in the next two days.

Emily and Franklin are the sixth and seventh tropical storms to form in the 2023 hurricane season.

As of 11 p.m. Sunday, Franklin had maximum sustained winds of 50 mph, an increase from 45 mph in the previous advisory, and was located about 270 miles south-southeast of Santo Domingo in the Dominican Republic, moving west at 12 miles per hour. Tropical storm-force winds extend 60 miles from the storm’s center.

Meanwhile, Emily was located about 1,105 miles west-northwest of the Africa’s Cabo Verde Islands in the central Atlantic Ocean and moving west-northwest at 9 mph with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph, a decrease from the 5 p.m. maximum. Tropical storm-force winds extend up to 205 miles from the center.

Emily will soon weaken, forecasters said. Vertical wind shear should “substantially increase” over the next two to three days. The storm is expected to become a post-tropical remnant low in about two days, though there is some chance it could regenerate in four to five days.

Meanwhile, Tropical Depression Six was moving west-northwest at 9 mph with sustained winds of up to 35 mph as of Sunday at 11 p.m., 4 mph under the minimum threshold for tropical storm status. Six, however, is encountering storm-shredding wind shear 500 miles east of the Caribbean and gradually weaken into a remnant low and dissipate in the next 24 hours.

Besides the system that moved over South Florida this weekend as it headed toward the western Gulf of Mexico, none of the others is currently expected to reach South Florida, said National Weather Service meteorologist George Rizzuto on Sunday, though such forecasts can change.

“At this time we’re not seeing any signs that any of these are going to be able to make it all the way to us,” Rizzuto said.

That system that made for a rainy weekend in South Florida is expected to reach the western Gulf of Mexico coastline, possibly as a tropical depression, by Tuesday. It is forecast at a 70% chance at developing over the next seven days, and 70% over the next 48 hours, according to the National Hurricane Center.

It had moved west of the Florida peninsula by Sunday evening, according to Rizzuto, and the “bulk” of the rainfall came earlier Sunday morning.

By Sunday evening, the rain should largely have stopped as drier air moves in behind the disturbance. Monday will be a drier day with chances of showers and storms but “much less coverage” than the past few days, Rizzuto said. Temperatures will likely reach just below the criteria for a heat advisory.

Another system close to Africa’s west coast is also becoming increasingly likely to form. It could become a tropical depression later this week as it moves west-northwest across the eastern tropical Atlantic. As of 8 p.m. Sunday, it was given a 30% chance of developing within 48 hours and 70% within seven days.

The next named storm would be Gert.

The National Hurricane Center is predicting an “above-normal” 2023 hurricane season, increasing the likelihood from only a 30% chance in its last outlook to a 60% chance going forward.

The update announced last week came as a result of ongoing record-breaking sea surface temperatures that continue to fight off the tempering effects of El Niño.

While sea surface temperatures have remained hot for longer than anticipated, El Niño’s effects, which typically reduce hurricane chances, have emerged more slowly.

The NHC, which operates under the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration, is now calling for 14-21 named storms, including 6-11 hurricanes, and two to five major hurricanes.