See how all 9 GOP presidential candidates perform with likely caucusgoers in new Iowa Poll
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Former President Donald Trump holds a 27 percentage-point lead in the latest Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom Iowa Poll, while Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley are locked in a battle for second place.
Despite lagging Trump 43% to 16%, DeSantis matches Trump’s “footprint” — the combination of likely GOP caucusgoers who say the candidate is either their first choice for president, their second choice or someone they are actively considering supporting.
By that metric, Trump and DeSantis are even, with 67% of likely caucusgoers actively considering each candidate in some way.
Haley, who polls evenly with DeSantis at 16% on first-choice support, is the only other candidate whose footprint encompasses a majority of likely caucusgoers, with 54%.
The poll of 404 likely Republican caucusgoers was conducted Oct. 22-26 by Selzer & Co. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.
The field has narrowed slightly since the summer, when 14 candidates were competing for the Republican nomination. But several candidates who remain in the nine-person field receive little support in the poll.
Here’s how every candidate is viewed by likely Republican caucusgoers.
Donald Trump
Trump has widened his lead slightly since the last Iowa Poll in August. Now, 43% of likely caucusgoers pick Trump as their first choice, while 16% choose DeSantis and 16% choose Haley.
Trump’s total Iowa footprint of 67% of likely Republican caucusgoers means more than two-thirds of caucusgoers are considering him in some way. That includes:
43% who say Trump is their first choice.
12% who say he is their second choice.
12% who say they are actively considering him.
(For all candidates, the footprint figure and the sum of first and second choices and those actively considering a candidate may differ because of rounding.)
Trump’s supporters are also highly enthusiastic about his candidacy. Nearly half (47%) say they are extremely enthusiastic about Trump, while another 40% say they are very enthusiastic. Just 13% say they are mildly enthusiastic and no one reports being not that enthusiastic.
Nearly two-thirds of those who name Trump as their first choice say their mind is made up (63%), while over one-third (37%) say they could still be persuaded to switch their choice.
Trump’s favorability among likely Republican caucusgoers is at 66%, while the percentage of those who view him unfavorably has dropped to 32%. They’re Trump’s best marks among likely Republican caucusgoers in an Iowa Poll.
(Candidates’ total favorability or unfavorability may differ slightly from the breakdown of those ratings because of rounding.)
Very favorable: 42%
Mostly favorable: 25%
Mostly unfavorable: 10%
Very unfavorable: 22%
Not sure: 1%
Ron DeSantis
DeSantis has seen his support fall slightly since August, when 19% of likely Republican caucusgoers named him as their first choice. Now he sits at 16%, tied with Haley.
But DeSantis is the only candidate to match Trump in total footprint: 67% of likely GOP caucusgoers are considering him in some way. That includes:
16% who say DeSantis is their first choice.
27% who say he is their second choice.
25% who say they are actively considering him.
The level of commitment among DeSantis’ supporters is nearly the inverse of Trump’s. Just under one-third (30%) say they are firmly committed to caucusing for DeSantis, while more than two-thirds (70%) say they could still be persuaded to support someone else.
A quarter of DeSantis supporters (25%) say they are extremely enthusiastic about his candidacy, while 40% say they are very enthusiastic and 33% describe themselves as mildly enthusiastic. One percent say they are not that enthusiastic.
DeSantis is the only candidate tested in the poll who is viewed favorably by more likely GOP caucusgoers than Trump. Sixty-nine percent view DeSantis favorably, while 26% view him unfavorably.
Very favorable: 29%
Mostly favorable: 39%
Mostly unfavorable: 13%
Very unfavorable: 13%
Not sure: 5%
Nikki Haley
Haley is now tied for second place with DeSantis, and a majority of likely Republican caucusgoers say they are considering her in some way.
Haley’s footprint of 54% of likely Republican caucusgoers includes:
16% who say Haley is their first choice.
17% who say she is their second choice.
22% who say they are actively considering her.
Haley’s support has risen by 10 percentage points since August, when she was the first choice of 6% of likely caucusgoers. That’s the largest increase in support of any candidate in the poll.
Just over one-quarter of Haley’s supporters (26%) say their mind is made up, while nearly three-quarters (74%) say they could still be persuaded to support another candidate.
Nineteen percent of Haley supporters describe themselves as extremely enthusiastic, while 56% say they are very enthusiastic, 19% are mildly enthusiastic, 5% are not that enthusiastic and 1% are not sure.
Haley’s favorability has increased from 53% in August to 59% in October. The number of likely GOP caucusgoers who view her unfavorably has ticked up from 26% to 29%.
Very favorable: 25%
Mostly favorable: 34%
Mostly unfavorable: 17%
Very unfavorable: 12%
Not sure: 13%
Tim Scott
U.S. Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina has slipped to fourth place in the latest Iowa Poll, with 7% of likely GOP caucusgoers naming him as their first choice, compared with 9% in August.
Scott’s footprint has also shrunk from 53% in August to 49% in October. His current support includes:
7% who say Scott is their first choice.
10% who say he is their second choice.
32% who say they are actively considering him.
The percentages of likely GOP caucusgoers who view Scott favorably and unfavorably have both grown since August. His overall favorability has risen from 59% to 61%. Meanwhile, 22% now view him unfavorably, up from 17% in August.
Very favorable: 18%
Mostly favorable: 43%
Mostly unfavorable: 16%
Very unfavorable: 7%
Not sure: 17%
Vivek Ramaswamy
Biotech entrepreneur and author Vivek Ramaswamy draws support from 4% of likely Republican caucusgoers who say he is their first choice, holding steady from August.
His total footprint of 32% of likely GOP caucusgoers includes:
4% who say Ramaswamy is their first choice.
9% who say he is their second choice.
19% who say they are actively considering him.
Ramaswamy has gained attention since the summer with a pair of sharp-elbowed presidential debate performances where he lobbed attacks at several of his rivals and was on the receiving end as well.
He is now viewed favorably by 43% of likely Republican caucusgoers, an increase of 5 percentage points since August. However, he is viewed unfavorably by 37%, an increase of 17 percentage points.
Very favorable: 13%
Mostly favorable: 30%
Mostly unfavorable: 23%
Very unfavorable: 14%
Not sure: 20%
Chris Christie
Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, who has focused all his attention on New Hampshire and has not campaigned in Iowa, is the first choice of 4% of likely GOP caucusgoers.
His footprint has dropped from 21% of likely Republican caucusgoers in August to 16% in October. That includes:
4% who say Christie is their first choice.
2% who say he is their second choice.
10% who say they are actively considering him.
Christie’s favorability, already underwater by a 2-to-1 margin in August, has worsened in the current poll. Now, 20% of likely GOP caucusgoers view him favorably and 69% view him unfavorably.
Very favorable: 4%
Mostly favorable: 16%
Mostly unfavorable: 28%
Very unfavorable: 41%
Not sure: 11%
Doug Burgum
North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum is the first choice of 3% of likely Republican caucusgoers.
His overall footprint has shrunk from 23% of likely GOP caucusgoers in August to 19% in October. That includes:
3% who say Burgum is their first choice.
3% who say he is their second choice.
13% who say they are actively considering him.
Burgum is better known than in August, and the percentage of likely GOP caucusgoers who view him favorably has risen from 38% to 42%. But he’s seen a greater increase in the percentage of caucusgoers who view him unfavorably, from 16% in August to 27% in October.
Very favorable: 9%
Mostly favorable: 33%
Mostly unfavorable: 19%
Very unfavorable: 8%
Not sure: 32%
Asa Hutchinson
Former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson is the first choice of 1% of likely Republican caucusgoers.
His total footprint of 9% of caucusgoers includes:
1% who say Hutchinson is their first choice.
1% who say he is their second choice.
7% who say they are actively considering him.
Hutchinson’s favorability among likely GOP caucusgoers has decreased 3 percentage points since August and now sits at 17%. Meanwhile, he’s now viewed unfavorably by 45%, an increase of 13 percentage points since August.
Very favorable: 3%
Mostly favorable: 14%
Mostly unfavorable: 26%
Very unfavorable: 20%
Not sure: 37%
Ryan Binkley
Texas businessman and pastor Ryan Binkley is the first choice of 0% of likely Republican caucusgoers.
His total footprint of 6% of likely Republican caucusgoers includes:
0% who say Binkley is their first choice.
1% who say he is their second choice.
5% who say they are actively considering him.
Thirteen percent of likely GOP caucusgoers view Binkley favorably, while 28% view him unfavorably. Fifty-nine percent do not know enough to form an opinion.
Very favorable: 2%
Mostly favorable: 11%
Mostly unfavorable: 18%
Very unfavorable: 10%
Not sure: 59%
Stephen Gruber-Miller covers the Iowa Statehouse and politics for the Register. He can be reached by email at sgrubermil@registermedia.com or by phone at 515-284-8169. Follow him on Twitter at @sgrubermiller.
About the Iowa Poll
The Iowa Poll, conducted Oct. 22-26, 2023, for The Des Moines Register, NBC News and Mediacom by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, is based on telephone interviews with 404 registered voters in Iowa who say they will definitely or probably attend the 2024 Republican caucuses.
Interviewers with Quantel Research contacted 3,028 randomly selected voters from the Iowa secretary of state’s voter registration list by telephone. The sample was supplemented with additional phone number lookups. Interviews were administered in English. Responses for all contacts were adjusted by age, sex and congressional district to reflect their proportions among voters in the list.
Questions based on the sample of 404 voters likely to attend the 2024 Iowa Republican caucuses have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. This means that if this survey were repeated using the same questions and the same methodology, 19 times out of 20, the findings would not vary from the true population value by more than plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. Results based on smaller samples of respondents — such as by gender or age — have a larger margin of error.
Republishing the copyright Iowa Poll without credit to The Des Moines Register, NBC News and Mediacom is prohibited.
This article originally appeared on Des Moines Register: Trump, DeSantis, Haley, others: How full field fared in new Iowa Poll
