The seismic shift in Tom Brady’s playing future

TAMPA — The last time Tom Brady played at Levi’s Stadium, it wasn’t a happy homecoming. The 49ers beat the Bucs 35-7 on Dec. 11, and many of his family and friends left the game early to beat traffic.

The 49ers Faithful were elated by the performance of rookie quarterback Brock Purdy, who won his first of seven consecutive starts (including playoffs) that day.

General manager John Lynch and coach Kyle Shanahan had an envious situation under center: Purdy, the last pick of the 2022 NFL draft, competing with Trey Lance, the third overall pick in 2021 whose season was cut short after only two games due to an ankle injury.

Pursuing Brady in 2023 likely wasn’t in the plans for the 49ers.

But the San Francisco Bay Area is known for some seismic shifts, and one may have happened Sunday.

Purdy was hit on his right, throwing elbow during the 49ers’ loss to the Eagles in the NFC Championship Game. Monday, the Niners learned he had suffered a complete tear in the ulnar collateral ligament. There is the possibility he will need Tommy John surgery and a complete reconstruction rather than a surgical repair.

At best, Purdy could return in six months. But even then, the 49ers can’t be sure what version of the rookie phenom they will be getting. At worst, he won’t be back until 2024.

Jimmy Garoppolo, who rescued the Niners after Lance went down before suffering a season-ending leg injury, is a free agent.

The 49ers have everything that Brady would want if he decided to resume his career: a loaded roster; the league’s top defense; a solid offensive line with Trent Williams at left tackle; and explosive playmakers such as receivers Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk, running back Christian McCaffrey and tight end George Kittle.

The 49ers considered signing Brady when he was a free agent in 2020, but they were coming off a Super Bowl loss to the Chiefs and had signed Garoppolo to an extension. Brady, of course, went on to lead the Bucs to a Super Bowl 55 win over those same Chiefs in his first season in Tampa Bay.

But now? Brady has to be a serious option for the 49ers.

The draw is obvious. He was born and raised in San Mateo, where his parents still live and wouldn’t have to travel to home games. At least one of his three sisters still lives in California. Brady has been a 49ers fan since he was 4, and the family would spend fall Sunday’s at Candlestick Park.

Brady, who will be 46 in August, would be a short-term fix for the 49ers. But they could do worse than to maximize their chance to win a Super Bowl before that window closes while allowing their two young QBs to spend a season learning from the GOAT.

The 49ers gave up three first-round picks for Lance, but it was always a risk trying to project his leap to the NFL from a Football Championship Subdivision program such as North Dakota State.

Brady hasn’t decided whether to continue his career, although many close to him believe it’s likely.

He has three children who all live on the East Coast. Jack is in New York with his mother, actress Bridget Moynahan. Vivian and Benjamin live with their mother, Gisele Bundchen, in south Florida.

Playing on the West Coast may not appeal to Brady at this point in his life. But San Francisco plays at Philadelphia, Pittsburgh and Jacksonville, creating opportunities for in-season visits.

Some close to Brady speak frequently about his relationship with the Glazer family that owns the Bucs and with general manager Jason Licht. A prevailing theory is that Brady would like to be given a chance to fix what went wrong in 2022.

Others believe he has played his last game in Tampa Bay. One thing that all agree on is that Brady will have options:

Dolphins

The Dolphins were punished for tampering with Brady and Saints coach Sean Payton from 2019-22 and forfeited their first-round pick this year and a third-rounder in 2024. Owner Stephen Ross was fined $1.5 million and suspended through Oct. 17. Brady wanted to join Payton in Miami. But the Dolphins seem committed to quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, who suffered three concussions. A report by ESPN’s Adam Schefter Sunday said the Dolphins aren’t expected to pursue Brady this offseason.

That doesn’t preclude Brady from pursuing the Dolphins when the free-agent negotiating period begins on March 13. Miami is loaded with offensive talent and has a good defense. Clearly, it would be the best location for Brady’s personal life, with two of his children living in south Florida.

Bucs

Sure, it sounded like goodbye during Brady’s final news conference following the wild-card loss to Dallas. But he has deep gratitude for all the Glazers have done to help the team remain division champions. They embraced trainer Alex Guerrero and send many of their players to TB12, the fitness company he started with Brady. There isn’t a free agent they wouldn’t attempt to re-sign, and they are willing to push more salary-cap money to future years in order to acquire free agents.

The NFC South also is a much weaker division than most. Atlanta, Carolina and New Orleans still are trying to solve quarterback problems. More importantly, Tampa Bay works for Brady. He has lived on Davis Islands, where there is an executive airport a few blocks from the two homes he has rented. He can scoop up his kids, who are just a short plane ride from Tampa.

Raiders

The biggest attraction is Josh McDaniels, Brady’s former offensive coordinator with the Patriots. The Raiders also have some solid weapons on offense with receivers Davante Adams and Hunter Renfrow, tight end Darren Waller and running back Josh Jacobs. However, Las Vegas ranked 28th in total defense. There also is the matter of having to win the same AFC West division with the Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes and the Chargers’ Justin Herbert.

Titans

Titans coach Mike Vrabel was a teammate of Brady’s with the Patriots and has built a perennial playoff contender. They obviously have a solid ground game with Derrick Henry to take pressure off the passing game. But the receiving corps led by Treylon Burks and Robert Woods is not elite. If there’s a positive, it’s a winnable AFC South division if you can get past Jacksonville.

Jets

The Jets have said they plan to sign a veteran quarterback and have made the decision that Zach Wilson isn’t quite ready to take the reins. They have a win-now defense, formidable head coach in Robert Saleh, and you would think marketing opportunities galore in the Big Apple. From a personal standpoint, Brady’s son, Jack, lives in New York, where Brady owns a home. The thought of watching his son play high school football on Friday nights could be appealing.

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