Sen. Kyrsten Sinema is counting on winning big with independents. Why that's a risky bet

The message has a logical appeal: Sen. Kyrsten Sinema is an independent, and her campaign recently pitched potential donors on a “path to victory” that includes her winning at least 60% of Arizona voters next year who are also not Democrats or Republicans.

But some Arizona political observers see the path sketched out in a pie chart in a two-page memo as potentially unrealistic and certainly untested.

Sinema’s campaign declined to comment or share data supporting her plan, which they haven’t even acknowledged.

The scant publicly available polling in the race suggests she is persistently trailing Rep. Ruben Gallego, D-Ariz., and often shows up last in a still-fluid three-way race.

In at least the first six months of the year, Sinema’s usually stellar fundraising lagged Gallego’s, though she maintained her lead in available cash, largely because of his much higher campaign expenses.

And the bedrock of the Sinema plan — that she can win most independent voters, as well as significant slices of Democrats and Republicans — stands as perhaps the most significant question, in part because of recent election history and the unprecedented nature of her still-undeclared bid for a second term.

“I would love to see her polling,” said Fred Solop, a politics professor emeritus at Northern Arizona University who has overseen polling in Arizona. “It doesn’t sound very plausible.

“She’s correct in saying there’s a huge pool of independents out there, and we know that independents are the fastest-growing party identification in Arizona,” he continued.

“But when we push further, we know that most independents have a partisan allegiance. They like to say they’re independent, but their voting behavior speaks otherwise.”

“I don’t see a viable path to be honest with you,” said Samara Klar, a government professor at the University of Arizona. “It’s a really, really tough journey for an independent to win, especially in a state where most voters do prefer one of the major parties.”

“I don’t know if (Sinema’s path) comes from polling data or if she’s just mapping out mathematically the percentages she would need to win,” Klar said.

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Sinema can point to a centrist political record and significant legislative achievements in a time of general gridlock in Washington. She can claim a leading hand, for example, in the trillion-dollar infrastructure law and a gun-safety law intended to slow weapons purchases for younger adults and provide new funding for mental health care.

She is an incumbent with a still-sizable campaign war chest that figures to keep her afloat in a way few third-party candidates have had.

Barrett Marson, a Republican campaign consultant not working with any Senate candidates, said Sinema’s ability to siphon support from all three buckets of voters shouldn’t be underestimated.

“Kyrsten Sinema is really going to put to the test the notion that voters want their elected leaders to work across party lines,” he said.

“Independents have left both parties. Kyrsten Sinema probably appeals to a lot of independents and the moderate voters of each party. It may be a little high … but it’s certainly in the ballpark.

“And we haven’t seen her spend nickel one yet. At some point she will start spending a significant amount of money talking about how she has worked across the aisle, with Democrats and Republicans to get things done for Arizona.”

Largest group of Arizona voters don't belong to political parties

Sinema needs to break a left-right partisan dynamic that has dominated national politics for a generation. Carrying an independent label may not be enough to win over a plurality next year.

Arizona’s voter registration is constantly shifting, but in July voters who didn’t belong to any of the state’s recognized parties were the largest single group, nearly 1.5 million people, or about 35%.

Republicans nearly matched that group, with 1.4 million registrants. Democrats had about 1.3 million. The Libertarian and No Labels parties had a combined 42,000 voters.

Klar said the state’s registration figures look enticing for an independent run, but that ignores how voters behave.

“When you look at numbers like that, it can give the impression that an independent candidate would have a really good chance in Arizona,” she said. “The truth is that the vast majority of independents are not moderates. They do identify as liberal or as conservative, so it’s not a cohesive voting bloc. It’s actually two very different groups.”

Klar estimates that 75% or more of independent voters nationally consistently vote for the same major party each time they vote. The suspense isn’t over which side they will support, she said.

“Most independents do have a party that they prefer. The challenge is getting them to vote for that party,” Klar said. “If they’re not going to vote for that party, they’re probably not going to vote at all. That’s what we’ve seen lately with conservative independents.”

Solop said Arizona Republicans likely have a small edge in conservative-leaning independents historically, and the share of truly independent voters is very small.

Austin Stumpf, a Democratic consultant, points to voter turnout data and exit polling that shows independents consistently showing up in notably smaller numbers than Democrats or Republicans.

Heading into the general election in 2016, independents represented about 34% of registered Arizona voters, placing them just behind Republicans as the state’s biggest bloc.

But less than 30% actually voted, which put them about 2.5 percentage points behind even the Democrats as a share of overall voters.

That dynamic has only grown more true, Stumpf’s figures show.

In 2022, independents represented about 26% of overall voters in Arizona, which placed them nearly 7 percentage points behind Democrats. Republican shares of the electorate are consistently the largest and have grown, but so, too, have the party’s evident defections at the ballot box.

What it means is that Sinema expects to fare best with a group that is notably smaller than the major-party voter bases.

Stumpf said exit polling showed Republican Blake Masters won 39% of self-identified independents in last year’s Senate contest, and Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick got about 41% in her 2016 loss to Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz.

“Even in totally different races that were lopsided for different reasons, you’re still seeing a really high floor of what I call partisan independents,” he said.

What is perhaps most unique about Sinema’s expected run, Stumpf said, is that she is not running as an alternative for one party; she’s running completely outside the parties in name and style.

“Often in these kinds of races, the goal ends up being to supplant one of the major-party candidates, not to run parallel to them,” he said.

In 2006, Sen. Joe Lieberman of Connecticut lost the Democratic primary, then ran and won as an independent over the Democratic nominee. In 2010, Sen. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska lost the Republican primary, then won a write-in campaign over the GOP nominee.

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How many Democrats can Sinema count on for support?

The Sinema memo suggested she can pull 10% to 20% of Democrats.

Solop said next year’s presidential race will further fuel the hyper-partisan atmosphere in Arizona and the nation. With Arizona receiving outsized attention as one of the nation’s few swing states, that should help Democrats close ranks around Gallego and boost turnout favorable to him, he said.

“I would expect that 95% of Democrats are going to vote for Joe Biden in this state and that’s going to have down ticket implications, so I think Ruben Gallego is going to do quite well with Democrats,” Solop said. “I don’t think Kyrsten’s very well positioned right now to have substantial inroads to the Democratic Party.”

Even so, Solop said he does think she could pull 10 to 15% of Democratic voters.

Marson said the party’s liberal base “has had it with Kyrsten Sinema,” but more moderate Democrats could add up to double-digit support for her on the left.

Gallego is running less as a centrist or independent than Sinema or Kelly did in their successful runs.

How many Republicans will vote for Sinema's reelection?

The Sinema campaign memo estimated she can win over 25% to 35% of GOP voters.

Kari Lake, a Republican scheduled to formally announce her long-expected Senate run on Tuesday, brings Trump-style rhetoric and fire that plays well with the GOP base but could spur the kind of defections that led to her gubernatorial loss last year.

Most of those lost votes won’t come from Republican voters, Solop predicted.

“If Kari Lake is the nominee, Republicans will vote for her. They will close ranks behind their party’s candidate,” Solop said. “That’s what it means to be in a hyper-partisan situation. Ideology will not play as well as party identification.”

Marson, however, disagrees.

“If Kari Lake is the nominee, I think you could see a higher number of Republicans vote for Kyrsten Sinema,” he said.

Pinal County Sheriff and GOP candidate “Mark Lamb would probably keep more Republicans in his column. But Lake, who has a penchant for annoying Republicans just as much as she does Democrats, would probably lose a substantial amount of Republican voters,” Marson said. “Not necessarily moderate Republican voters — conservative Republican voters as well.”

Solop said there are other significant drags on an independent run beyond winning voter loyalties.

“The political system itself — the legal mechanisms, the culture around voting — does not benefit independents in this country,” he said. The major parties can pour sizable sums into helping their nominees in a way that an independent can’t.

But Solop warned against judging the race as over.

“One caveat with this,” he said. “It’s still early. There’s a lifetime to go between now and the election, so things could change.”

Reach the reporter at ronald.hansen@arizonarepublic.com.

This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: Sen. Kyrsten Sinema expects to win big with independents. Should she?