Sen. Mark Kelly leading Republican Blake Masters in Arizona's Senate race

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Update: Sen. Mark Kelly held onto a shrinking lead over Republican rival Blake Masters as election officials continued to tally votes Wednesday. Read the latest here.

U.S. Sen. Mark Kelly was maintaining a lead early Wednesday over Republican Blake Masters, with a sizable edge among early votes cast in Maricopa and Pima counties.

Unofficial ballot returns earlier Tuesday reflected those cast during the state’s early voting period and were Democratic-leaning as many expected. Republicans are expected to dominate ballots counted later in the evening, suggesting Kelly's hold on the race remained tenuous.

Kelly, D-Ariz., now faces the challenge of trying to hold onto that advantage as counting shifts to Election Day votes and those dropped off in recent days. That process is expected to continue for days.

Kelly spoke late Tuesday to supporters in Tucson, striking a confident and thankful tone, but stopping short of declaring victory.

"From Day One, this campaign for me hasn't been — you know, it hasn't been about name-calling or dividing people. It's been about telling the truth," he said. "It's been about bringing together Republicans, Democrats and independents in every corner of our state, focused on solving problems."

Kelly said the results, however they go, will produce closely divided government, an outcome that demands cooperation between the parties.

"That can feel daunting, but that's democracy. That's how it's supposed to work," he said. "It's our responsibility to find common ground."

Masters did not speak publicly on Tuesday night.

One notable concern for Masters is the fall-off in votes for him compared to Republican gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake in early returns. For about the last month of the campaign, Masters appeared alongside Lake, the GOP front-runner.

Recent polling in the race suggested it was a toss-up, and last week Libertarian Marc Victor quit the race and called for his supporters to vote for Masters. Victor’s name remained on the ballot and more than 1 million votes had already been cast by the time of his decision.

The early returns showed Kelly leading in Arizona’s most populous counties, which typically account for a combined 75% of voters.

It was a pattern broadly similar to one seen by Democrats in their 2018 and 2020 Senate wins, as well as President Joe Biden’s narrow 2020 victory.

The Rialto Theatre in downtown Tucson was full of Kelly campaign staff, volunteers and supporters at his election night event. The crowd was energized and optimistic by the early results.

Campaign volunteer Melinda Rogers said she was optimistic of the results because of the hard work people put in to knock on doors and make calls.

“I think that Democratic volunteers for Mark Kelly night and day worked so hard … that I think without a shadow of a doubt he will win,” she said.

As election neared, momentum shifted

Kelly was long seen as his party’s best bet in a year when momentum seemed solidly with Republicans. Kelly was one of the best-funded candidates in the Senate, while Masters, a first-time candidate, largely depended on the support of outside groups aligned with Republicans.

But in the final month of the campaign, President Joe Biden’s generally poor marks from voters seemed to pull down most Democrats in competitive races. Meanwhile, Masters spent much of that time appearing at events with Kari Lake, the Republican gubernatorial candidate, who seemed to be pulling away from Democrat Katie Hobbs.

Kelly consistently cast himself as an independent running against an extremist. Kelly especially focused on Masters’ support for restricting abortion rights and his support for voicing support for privatizing Social Security in June.

By contrast, Masters called Kelly an enabler for Biden’s agenda. He pointed to record inflation, rising crime and a porous border as consequences of Kelly’s support for Biden.

Election Day coverage: Live voting updates | Arizona election results

Mark Kelly seeks to continue work in Senate

The race was more than close, however. It was also a battle between sharply divergent strategies, personalities and governing approaches.

Kelly won his seat in 2020 by defeating Sen. Martha McSally, R-Ariz., in the special election to complete the final two years of the late Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., who died in 2018.

Throughout that campaign and this one, Kelly has claimed the persona of an independent in the mold of McCain. Kelly, a former Navy combat pilot and NASA astronaut, is quick to offer praise for McCain’s record in Washington and in the military.

It was an approach tailor-made for courting Arizona’s vast independent voters and a luxury a relatively popular incumbent facing no primary opposition could afford.

Blake Masters hopes to unseat incumbent

By contrast, Masters entered the GOP primary in 2021 with $10 million in support from his mentor and co-author, billionaire venture capitalist Peter Thiel. Thiel later kicked in at least another $7.5 million to help Masters.

While Thiel’s money helped raise awareness about the largely unknown candidate, Masters created an energy of his own in countless public appearances and a sharp, unflinchingly conservative outlook on social media.

Masters pulled away from his four Republican primary opponents by winning over the one vote that seems to matter most in internal GOP politics: former President Donald Trump.

Masters, who served on Trump’s 2016 transition team, signaled agreement with Trump’s baseless claims of a stolen election in 2020 and promised an uncompromising brand of politics in Washington.

With Trump’s endorsement, Masters handily won the Republican primary in August but began the general election phase with little money of his own and no further support from Thiel or from Senate GOP leader Mitch McConnell’s affiliated organizations.

Masters labored to clarify his view on abortion restrictions after the Supreme Court erased federal protections in June and he controversially raised the idea of privatizing Social Security at a candidate forum around the same time.

That’s also when Masters’ college-era writings came to light showing a young libertarian who expressed opposition to the U.S. fighting in World War I and World War II, and said Iraq and al-Qaeda didn’t pose “substantial threats to Americans.”

By contrast, Kelly stood unambiguously for preserving abortion rights and helped pass a series of bills in Congress intended to boost semiconductor production in the U.S. and slow purchases of guns by younger adults. He played up his support for the U.S. military.

But months of record-high gas prices and seemingly unending border crossings, along with Biden's woeful approval ratings, helped chip away at Kelly's sizable lead in public polling.

In early October, at their only debate, Masters repeatedly and glibly attacked Kelly as an accomplice to the Biden agenda. At one point, he called for Kelly’s resignation over conditions at the border.

It was a performance that helped Masters consolidate support from hesitant Republicans and provided a jolt of momentum he took into Election Day.

In the final month of the campaign, Masters appeared repeatedly with Lake, who has drawn large, enthusiastic crowds. The “Lake and Blake” ticket proved a low-cost way for Masters to raise his profile as voting got underway.

It also stood in marked contrast to Kelly rarely mentioning or being near Katie Hobbs, the Democratic gubernatorial candidate.

Kelly shook off a mostly forgettable debate performance by returning to small group events across Arizona and promising to continue to work for what he casts as sensible policies that benefit the state and protect the nation.

As always, he played up his status as a veteran, and turned sparingly to surrogates such as Sens. Cory Booker, D-N.J., and Alex Padilla, D-Calif., and Mesa’s Republican mayor, John Giles.

In the final week of the campaign, Democrats brought in the party’s biggest star for a rally in Phoenix: former President Barack Obama.

Republic reporter Sarah Lapidus contributed to this report.

Reach the reporter Ronald J. Hansen at ronald.hansen@arizonarepublic.com or 602-444-4493. Follow him on Twitter @ronaldjhansen.

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This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: Arizona Senate election: Incumbent Mark Kelly faces Blake Masters