Senate GOP divided over race to replace McCarthy

The race for House Speaker is dividing Senate Republicans, reflecting the broader division in the GOP between traditional and MAGA-aligned conservatives.

Many mainstream Republican senators are quietly rooting for the House to elect Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) over Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) and for the transition to happen as quickly as possible to quell voters’ concerns about the Republican Party’s ability to govern.

Rep. Kevin Hern (R-Okla.), the chairman of the Republican Study Committee, dropped out of the Speaker’s race Saturday.

Lawmakers who want Scalise to lead the House think he would have a better working relationship with Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and could do a better job of finessing must-pass bills through the House.

Many Republican senators are also leery of the House impeachment inquiry that Jordan is leading with House Oversight and Accountability Committee Chairman James Comer (R-Ky.) — something they see as a bad political move before the 2024 election.

The have warned that impeachment is a “political loser” and that Republicans are better off talking about the economy, border security and crime.

But Senate Republicans who have aligned themselves with former President Trump want to shake up the party establishment in Washington and favor Jordan.

Trump endorsed Jordan for Speaker on Friday, declaring on Truth Social he “will be a GREAT Speaker of the House, & has my Complete & Total Endorsement!”

Sen. Mike Braun (Ind.) became the first Republican senator to make an endorsement Friday, when he praised Jordan as “a fighter.”

“Jim Jordan is a fighter that doesn’t back down, and that’s what we need to secure the border and stop Joe Biden’s inflation bomb agenda. He would stand up to the D.C. establishment and serve the American people well as Speaker of the House,” Braun said.

Many GOP senators, however, view Scalise as a GOP leader more in the mold of former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), who could be counted on as a partner to avoid a government shutdown and work with them to provide more funding for the war in Ukraine.

McConnell on Wednesday expressed his disappointment over McCarthy’s ouster from House leadership.

“The Speaker and I worked closely throughout his tenure, but I was particularly struck by his persistence. He literally willed the President of the United States to the negotiating table and kept coming back again and again until he had helped secure the nation’s full faith and credit,” McConnell said on the Senate floor, praising McCarthy as “a partner I could trust to be honest and candid.”

One Republican senator who spoke on the condition of anonymity voiced concern that the growing power of conservatives in the House could in turn embolden Senate conservatives and make it harder to get things done in Congress.

“I’m looking at this and think you could have this bubbling sense of we could change things if we lock arms here,” the lawmaker said, pointing to the recent efforts of Senate conservatives to derail bipartisan Senate appropriations bills and block additional funding for Ukraine.

Senators generally view Scalise as a traditional party leader who would certainly know how to play partisan politics and go on offense against Democrats. But they also view him as a politician savvy enough to avoid a government shutdown or debt default that would likely boomerang back and hurt GOP lawmakers.

“It is kind of a classic contest between the inside candidate and the outside candidate, and each of them have strengths in both areas. I think Scalise would be masterful leader inside the institution and negotiating with the Democrats, but I also see that Jordan would be an excellent spokesperson for the outside world,” said Vin Weber, a Republican strategist who once served in the House GOP leadership.

Trump’s ringing endorsement of Jordan on Friday won’t do anything to boost his standing with GOP senators who want the party to move past the former president and his brand of political populism.

Jordan has repeatedly voted against funding military aid to Ukraine, while Scalise voted last month for $300 million in aid to Ukraine and voted last year for a $40 billion assistance package for Ukraine.

Ron Bonjean, a GOP strategist and former Senate and House Republican leadership aide, said Jordan is a “hard-liner” but noted that could help him if he can persuade fellow Republicans that he would be able to better deal with conservative rebels in the House Freedom Caucus.

“A number of Republican are attracted to Jordan because they feel that the Freedom Caucus won’t cause trouble for the entire conference and that they will be kept at bay, which is not necessarily true because as Speaker you can’t take completely hard-line positions, you have to figure out a path forward. That will be a different place for Jordan to operate. That’s not his comfort zone. He’s a partisan hard-liner that generates plenty of headlines that please the [party] base,” he said.

Bonjean said that while GOP senators may prefer Scalise, there’s not much they can do to influence the race because “House Republicans are going to be voting for their own leader.”

“It makes sense that they would prefer Scalise, because he’s in leadership now and he understands how deals get made,” he added.

GOP senators want to get a new Speaker in place as soon as possible to avoid the appearance that their party is in turmoil, which could shake voters’ confidence in electing Republicans to the White House and Senate majority in 2024.

“While most people don’t really care who the Speaker of the House is they do care about whether the party itself is acting in a reasonable and thoughtful manner,” said Scott Jennings, a Republican strategist who has advised McConnell’s past campaigns.

He said if voters think the GOP-controlled House is in “constant chaos and not able to work with the Senate on advancing conservative or Republican priorities,” it could become a political headwind in 2024.

He said that House Republican’s inability to pass a conservative stopgap government funding measure last month because of the opposition of a handful of GOP rebels “called into question what we’re really for here.”

“I think it’s important for the Republican Party to be as unified as possible and to have as cohesive and coherent an agenda as possible,” Jennings said.

McConnell and other senators are staying publicly neutral about the race but have warned that the next Speaker cannot be held hostage by a small group of House conservatives.

McConnell and his allies want the House to change the rule that allows a single lawmaker to call for a snap leadership election at any moment by offering a motion to vacate the Speaker’s chair.

The Senate Republican leader has also made funding for the war in Ukraine one of his top priorities, warning that it’s a vital national security interest and directly related to sending a message to China not to invade Taiwan.

But McConnell and other Republican senators watching the political drama on the House side of the Capitol are keeping their distance, knowing full well that House members don’t like it when senators meddle in their business.

“We need to get a Speaker and hopefully we’ll get one by next week,” he told reporters. “To do that job for anyone, you have to get rid of the motion to vacate, because it puts whoever the Speaker is in a hammerlock of dysfunction.”

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