Setting the stage for Panthers’ final week: Clinching scenarios, remaining schedules

The Florida Panthers hadn’t had a winning streak longer than three games all season — and didn’t even have one of those until February — until they ripped off six in a row in the last two weeks to take control of their postseason destiny.

Now, they go into their final two games of the regular season with a chance to finish off a massive turnaround and make the 2023 Stanley Cup playoffs.

In the big picture, it will only be so big an accomplishment for the Panthers, considering they won the Presidents’ Trophy last year. They were, however, nine points out of a playoff spot after New Year’s Day and now have a chance to lock up a spot in the Stanley Cup playoffs as soon as Tuesday.

Even though it’s now favored to grab one of the wild cards, Florida still faces a daunting task in the final week of the season.

“We have to keep it going,” superstar right wing Matthew Tkachuk said Saturday after scoring the game-winning goal to beat the out-of-contention Capitals, 4-2. “Teams around us are winning.”

Florida Panthers’ automatic clinching scenario

With two games left, Florida (42-31-7) is in control of the top wild card, ahead of the Islanders on a tiebreaker, and one point up on the Penguins and six up on the Sabres, who have played two fewer games than everyone else in the wild card race.

If the Panthers win one of their last two games and lose the other in overtime, they’ll automatically make the Cup playoffs, no matter what anyone else does because they’d remain at least one point ahead of Buffalo and hold a tiebreaker with Pittsburgh.

Florida would also make the playoffs as the top wild card with two wins. The Panthers have a 77 percent chance to make the playoffs, according to FiveThirtyEight.

All Florida Panthers clinching scenarios

Any scenario would give Florida a chance to make the postseason, based on how the other teams finish.

▪ With one win and one regulation loss, the Panthers would get in with one win and one regulation loss by New York, or one win and one overtime loss by the Penguins.

▪ With two overtime losses, Florida would get in if the Islanders also lose twice in any manner or one win and one overtime loss by Pittsburgh.

▪ With one regulation loss and one overtime loss, the Panthers would get in with two losses by the Islanders, as long as one is in regulation, or two losses of any kind by the Penguins. This scenario would bring the Sabres into play and they would pass Florida by winning 4 of 4.

▪ With two regulation losses, the Panthers would get in with two regulation losses by New York or two losses by the Penguins, as long as one is in regulation. This scenario would again bring Buffalo into play and the Sabres would pass Florida by winning 3 of 4 with an overtime loss.

Panthers face toughest remaining schedule

The biggest challenge standing between the Panthers and the playoffs is their schedule.

Florida closes the year with two games against Stanley Cup contenders — the Toronto Maple Leafs on Monday at 7 p.m. at FLA Live Arena and the Hurricanes on Thursday, again in Sunrise.

Pittsburgh closes with two of the worst teams in the NHL — the Blackhawks at home Tuesday and Blue Jackets in Columbus on Thursday. The Islanders also finish with two bad teams — they’re in Washington on Monday and at home against the Canadiens on Wednesday.

“You look at the schedules, there’s just an expectation they’re winning out,” coach Paul Maurice said Saturday. “We’re going to have to play our best hockey of the year the last two games to win and that’s possible. We can play our best hockey. We just expect that Pittsburgh and the Island will win out.”

Buffalo’s schedule is daunting both because it features two of the best teams in the league and has two back-to-back sets — the Rangers in New York on Monday, the Devils on Tuesday in New Jersey, a home game against the out-of-contention Senators on Thursday and finally in Columbus on Friday.

This late in the year, there is a chance Florida’s schedule might not be as difficult as it looks, though. The Maple Leafs (47-21-7) have nothing to play for, locked into a first-round matchup with the Lightning with home-ice advantage, and Carolina could clinch the Metropolitan Division and No. 2 seed as soon as Tuesday. Even if they clinch, the Hurricanes could be incentivized to beat the Panthers on Thursday, though, if they want to ensure they don’t match up with Florida in Round 1.

Inside Florida Panthers’ winning streak

Of course, the Panthers are playing as well as they have all year, with six straight wins doubling its previous season-best winning streak.

All six wins have come with goaltender Alex Lyon in the net, filling for star goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky, who missed the first five games of the streak due to an illness and then backed up Lyon on Saturday at Capital One Arena. Florida had lost four in a row before Lyon took over, and won six in a row with a .956 save percentage and 1.50 goals against average.

Star defenseman Aaron Ekblad has also shrugged off his season-long struggles and is now on a career-best seven-game point streak.

“Everyone’s bought in, everyone’s trying to play the right way,” forward Sam Reinhart said Saturday, “and that’s what ultimately is going to give us the most success.”