Severe storms to rattle Northeast ahead of next cool blast
The same blast of cold air poised to sweep across the Midwest will roll into the northeastern United States on Thursday and Thursday night. Enough of a surge of warm and humid air will arrive just ahead of the cold air to set the stage for gusty showers and thunderstorms, some of which are likely to turn severe, AccuWeather meteorologists warn.
The severe weather threat will shift from the Midwest and into a zone from eastern New York and southwestern New England to the eastern parts of Virginia and North Carolina on Thursday as a cold front progress through the region.
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The threat zone includes some of the most populated areas in the eastern U.S. from near Washington, D.C., to Philadelphia and New York City. While the most common risks from the storms will stem from strong wind gusts that can break tree limbs and trigger sporadic power outages as well as brief torrential downpours that can lead to flash urban flooding, there is the potential for a couple of isolated tornadoes to spin up as well.
Forecasters say that although the risk of tornadoes is low, any twister that manages to briefly develop could be concealed by heavy rain and/or low-hanging clouds.
People commuting or spending time outdoors should stay alert for rapidly changing weather conditions and keep up with weather bulletins, experts warn. The AccuWeather app can provide a means to get the latest information.
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Both the thunderstorms and showers have the potential to organize into a single line that contains a brief period of strong winds and downpours. In other words, it is possible that severe weather occurs without any thunder or lightning. Areas from the central Appalachians to northern New England may be the most likely to experience severe showers without thunder and lightning.
Small hail could accompany some of the strongest thunderstorms as well.
As the line of showers and storms swing through, flight delays will be possible at major airport hubs.
In New England, as the front swings from a south-to-north fashion to more of a northwest-to-southeast orientation, a longer-lasting period of heavy rain and strong winds are likely to occur.
If it were not for ongoing drought conditions in much of New England, widespread flooding might result. Much of the rain that falls may be absorbed by the landscape. However, in some locations, the rain may still come down so hard and fast that it may quickly run off and lead to flash flooding. This is most likely in areas where leaves have begun to fall and may block storm drains. A few small streams may also quickly rise to bank full given the general 1-4 inches of rain that is forecast to fall in less than 12 hours from Thursday afternoon to early Friday.
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Stiff south-to-southeast winds that occur ahead of the cold front, during the rain can lead to a period of above-normal tides and minor coastal flooding in Long Island, New York, and New England on Thursday night.
The same dose of heavy rain and flash flood concerns will pivot through the central Appalachians and upstate New York region from late Wednesday night to Thursday afternoon.
Where leaves have fallen, the rain can also lead to slick conditions on secondary roads and sidewalks of city streets.
In the wake of the storms, multiple rounds of chilly air will pivot around a large storm that develops at the jet stream level of the atmosphere over the Great Lakes. Since this cold air machine will remain anchored over the Great Lakes, the chilliest air may have trouble pushing to the mid-Atlantic coast and through New England.
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For example, at sea level in New York City, high temperatures are forecast to only trend downward from the lower 70s on Wednesday and Thursday to the mid-60s by this weekend. Meanwhile, at an elevation of 2,100 feet in the Appalachians, high temperatures in Bradford, Pennsylvania, will trend downward from the upper 60s on Wednesday to the lower 50s this weekend and could dip into the 40s next week.
Snow showers are likely to make their presence known in the Upper Midwest this weekend to next week and the first snowflakes of the season could appear in parts of the central Appalachians as well.
Areas in the Midwest are likely to experience some of the lowest temperatures of the season so far, especially during the daytime hours when clouds and showers dominate. Widespread highs in the 50s are forecast with some northern-tier locations of the Midwest not likely to rise past the 40s this weekend through much of next week. The weather pattern around the Great Lakes could get rather chaotic with periodic gusty showers with some that can contain soft hail and even waterspouts.
But, even people in the Interstate 95 corridor of the Northeast will notice the change to cool weather this weekend following the warm surge into Thursday despite being on the fringe of the colder weather pattern. Blustery conditions will accompany a return of sunshine and will add to the chill in shady locations as well as during the evening hours as the sun goes down.
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