Severe weather concerns will ramp up across nation's midsection into next week
A more organized severe weather threat is expected to unfold this weekend and continue into next week across a wide swath of the central United States, AccuWeather forecasters say.
A fresh injection of summertime heat, moisture and atmospheric energy into the Plains and Midwest will help trigger the thunderstorms, which will occur in clusters in various areas from Texas to Illinois each day through the middle of next week. Some of the storms will be capable of producing damaging winds and hail, as well as torrential rain which can lead to flash flooding.
AccuWeather meteorologists are especially concerned about the threat of severe weather, which will include the risk of a few tornadoes, Tuesday and Wednesday of next week in a zone where air masses will clash from northern Texas and Oklahoma to the Ohio Valley. A significant portion of this area has been largely devoid of severe storm activity since earlier in the spring.
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A three-inch hailstone came crashing down on the windshield of the car Bill Wadell was storm chasing in on Wednesday, April 19, 2023. (AccuWeather National Reporter Bill Wadell) |
First up for the threat of severe weather will be portions of the southern and central Plains, as well as the Ark-La-Tex region, where a daily chance of feisty thunderstorms will exist into and through the weekend.
Isolated thunderstorm activity has been common in recent days, and this area has been no stranger to strong storms. On Wednesday, the National Weather Service relayed nearly a dozen reports of damaging wind gusts as high as 68 mph and hail up to the size of limes (2 inches in diameter) in western Texas.
With light surface winds and little atmospheric flow expected, any thunderstorm that forms in the afternoon into the night could move very slowly and drop a significant amount of rain and hail. This excess precipitation will easily trigger flash flooding and could trap motorists in rising water, especially in low-lying and poor drainage areas.
For some, it will be a double-edged sword, as the rain is sorely needed in places experiencing drought - especially Kansas. According to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor released Thursday morning, nearly half of the state was enduring 'severe' or 'exceptional' drought conditions.
Storms are expected to be more swift moving in nature Saturday as the threat area shifts east into central and eastern Oklahoma, northeastern Texas, Arkansas and Louisiana. This includes the cities of Dallas; Tulsa, Oklahoma; and Shreveport, Louisiana, as well as portions of interstates 20, 30, 35, 40 and 45.
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"The main threats in storms this weekend will be large hail and damaging winds," said AccuWeather Meteorologist Alex DaSilva. "Despite that, [forecasters] can't rule out a few isolated tornadoes."
On both Saturday and Sunday, locations from far eastern Oklahoma and into western and central Arkansas, such as Little Rock, will have a risk of severe weather. However, thunderstorms capable of producing hail and damaging wind gusts will expand farther eastward on Sunday to include Paducah, Kentucky and Memphis and Nashville, Tennessee.
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While the threat of severe storms may be lower in the nation's midsection by Monday morning, AccuWeather forecasters are monitoring the potential for a larger outbreak of severe storms that can extend farther east starting late Monday and especially on Tuesday and Wednesday.
"An active severe weather pattern may take hold during the early to middle portions of next week across portions of the Plains and mid-Mississippi Valley," said DaSilva. The thunderstorms will form and move north and east in multiple rounds on both days from northern Texas to parts of the Midwest.
A unique combination of ingredients at all levels of the atmosphere, not seen in this zone in several weeks, will be responsible for the enhanced threat.
"A strong jet stream will move into the Plains during this period," added DaSilva. "This jet, combined with hot and humid air moving north out of the Gulf of Mexico, will provide a conducive environment for severe storms."
There is also a concern that a few tornadoes could touch down on both days, with the threat being notably higher compared to the storms that will develop this weekend in locations farther west.
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Because the severe weather threat is still several days out, it is hard to pinpoint exactly where rounds of thunderstorms will form and travel, but residents and businesses across nearly a dozen states and numerous metropolitan areas should monitor the situation closely, AccuWeather forecasters say. The threat of severe storms is expected to be highest on both days from late in the afternoon into the nighttime hours.
In places like Memphis, Nashville, and Fort Smith and Little Rock, Arkansas, it will represent a renewal of the severe storm threat into a new week, but new cities will be added to the risk area come Tuesday and Wednesday, including Indianapolis and St. Louis.
Since severe storms have been focused across the western Plains over the last several weeks, in many areas it will be the first opportunity for a powerful thunderstorm in a while. As summertime outdoor activities ramp up, those enjoying time outside will want to have a way to receive timely, actionable thunderstorm and tornado warnings, including through the AccuWeather App.
The concern for powerful thunderstorms is not expected to cease Wednesday in the nation's Heartland. As an area of low pressure and its associated moisture works its way east, other parts of the Midwest, as well as the Southeast and Northeast, could experience strong storms, along with much-needed rain later next week.
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