Severe weather forecast: AccuWeather meteorologists put Great Plains, Mississippi Valley on alert
An increase in thunderstorm activity is forecast for parts of the central United States through this weekend. AccuWeather meteorologists say some of the storms will turn severe as well as provide needed rain for residents dealing with long-term drought conditions.
A storm moving from the Pacific coast to the interior West will allow Gulf of Mexico moisture to increase over the Great Plains into this weekend. At the same time, warmth will continue to build over the region. This combination, along with energy from the western storm, will serve as a recipe for severe weather.
"Severe thunderstorm activity was sparse on Wednesday night and mainly confined to portions of eastern New Mexico and western Texas," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski said.
A somewhat stronger disturbance pushed out from the southern Rockies into Thursday night. Large hail and powerful wind gusts were reported in parts of Texas. Some of the hail was as large as baseballs and destroyed vehicle windshields and windows. Just last week, portions of Texas were slammed by hail about the size of baseballs and softballs.
Farther north, a tornado touched down in Kansas. Luckily, it occurred over open land and did not cause any damage or injuries.
Back across the Central states, severe thunderstorm activity may be more spotty in nature once again on Friday, just like on Wednesday.
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But, AccuWeather forecasters are currently focusing on an area from central Texas to Arkansas and Mississippi. Storms in this zone may bring strong wind gusts and hail.
A separate pocket of severe storms may develop in Nebraska on Friday afternoon and Friday night as well. Hail, strong wind gusts and torrential downpours in some of the strongest storms could keep some residents awake.
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As these storms weaken and lift northeastward Friday night, a zone of drenching rain and localized flash flooding may develop in parts of Tennessee and Kentucky.
During the weekend, the coverage of thunderstorms and severe weather, in general, is likely to ramp up over the Midwest. All modes of severe weather will be possible, especially during the afternoon and evening hours.
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On Saturday, heavy to locally severe thunderstorms are most likely to develop in a zone from central and northeastern Texas to south-central Oklahoma. All modes of severe weather will be possible here as well.
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On Sunday, Texas may have the warmest and most humid conditions, but the disturbance may focus most of its energy hundreds of miles farther to the north, AccuWeather Meteorologist Joseph Bauer explained.
Bauer noted that storms may be more robust in central Texas as well as farther north in portions of Iowa, Missouri, eastern Nebraska, western Illinois and northeastern Kansas.
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May is a prime time for severe weather, especially in the middle of the nation. During the prior three years, May was the month with the greatest number of tornadoes across the nation with a historical average of 208, according to the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center.
AccuWeather's long-range team of meteorologists expects severe weather to be more spread out over the central U.S. from the Gulf Coast to parts of the central and northern Plains and Midwest into the first part of the summer. Despite some gaps in severe weather, rounds of powerful storms may happen more often than the historical average from late May to June. There could even be some increased risk for a type of long-lasting and destructive wind storm known as a derecho.
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Even though only a dozen or so tornadoes may spin up throughout the Plains through Saturday, all it takes is one tornado in a populated area to pose a significant threat to lives and property. AccuWeather meteorologists will be closely monitoring for a potential uptick in tornado activity in general from Sunday through next week.
On a positive note, the uptick in shower and thunderstorm activity in the coming days will bring some much-needed rainfall. By far, the worst drought conditions in the entire U.S. as of Wednesday, May 3, were located over Great Plains. Much of Kansas, in particular, has been under exceptional drought. This part of the country will receive some sporadic rainfall in the coming days.
An updated report from the United States Drought Monitor was released on Thursday.
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Any of the thunderstorms may carry the risk of localized flash and urban flooding over the Plains states to parts of the Mississippi Valley into this weekend and beyond. Some subtropical moisture will be gradually injected into the pattern. This moisture boost will increase the coverage and intensity of rainfall in the region.
By Sunday, the flash flood risk will expand into areas that recently experienced major river flooding in portions of North Dakota, Minnesota and perhaps Wisconsin. The amount of rain in the forecast is not likely to have a major effect on the larger rivers in the north-central region in the short term, forecasters say.
Water levels along the Mississippi River from Wisconsin and Minnesota through much of Iowa and northern Illinois have crested but will fall slowly over the next few weeks. The major flooding developed as the record amounts of snowfall from the winter quickly melted over the northern tier of the country in April.
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