A shadow campaign: Is Ron DeSantis poised to step in if Donald Trump implodes?

Gov. Ron DeSantis is back in Florida after his failed presidential run, but his mind still seems to be on Washington.

Since dropping out of the 2024 race on Jan. 21, DeSantis put out a pair of videos on the border problem, posted on X, formerly Twitter, that U.S. Rep. Ilhan Omar, D-Minn., should be deported and held a press conference to formally push for a series of amendments to the U.S. Constitution, including congressional term limits and requiring a balanced federal budget.

DeSantis’ recent focus on federal issues mirrors many of the talking points from his presidential campaign, which emphasized bolstering border security and reducing federal spending.

Anyone who listened to DeSantis’ latest comments and didn’t know he had dropped out of the race might think he was still running for president – and some analysts believe that may be precisely what he’s doing in the broadest sense.

There is still considerable uncertainty surrounding former President Donald Trump’s candidacy. Trump faces 91 felony charges spread across four criminal cases.

By continuing to insert himself into the conversation on hot-button federal debates, DeSantis could position himself to be in the mix if something happens to Trump’s campaign, political observers say, or to run for president again in 2028 or pursue still other opportunities in national politics.

“I would say he’s waging a shadow campaign to preserve his eligibility for a presidential run," said Gregory Koger, a University of Miami political science professor. "I can’t say whether his focus is on 2024 or 2028. Anyone can see Trump might be vulnerable and might not make it through the process, but that’s just an outside chance.”

DeSantis has run a shadow presidential campaign before.

While he didn’t formally announce his presidential bid until May of last year, DeSantis spent months touring the country last winter and spring, promoting his book, "The Courage to Be Free," in what was widely viewed as a run-up to his campaign.

Even before that, DeSantis already was testing out the themes of his presidential campaign with frequent press conferences in his official capacity as governor that often veered into criticism of President Joe Biden and federal policy.

The governor also repeatedly leveraged his authority to build his resume as a presidential candidate, whether through abortion legislation or executive actions such as flying migrants to Martha’s Vineyard.

Continuing with that pattern could increase speculation that DeSantis still harbors national ambitions and sees potential opportunities, whether later this year or in another four years.

If Trump falters, will DeSantis step back in?

The idea of DeSantis still appearing on a ballot in 2024 may seem highly unlikely, but Trump’s indictments have made this election season the most volatile in memory.

Trump's campaign also has faced constitutional challenges that seek to remove him from state ballots. These efforts allege that he incited the storming of the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021 in an act of insurrection against the government. The 14th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution states that anyone who previously took an oath to "as an officer of the United States" to support the Constitution and then "engaged in insurrection or rebellion" is not eligible to be president.

The U.S. Supreme Court recently agreed to review a decision by Colorado's highest court that deemed Trump ineligible to run for president because of his conduct surrounding Jan. 6.

Additionally, at 77, Trump is more at risk of experiencing health issues that could derail his campaign.

Trump seems "more vulnerable" than other leading candidates at this stage in the race, Koger said, and the "odds he won't make it through the convention are higher."

“In the back of the minds of all the people who were running against Trump was what happens if Trump’s bad luck with litigation negates him from the presidency?” said Charles Zelden, a political science professor at Nova Southeastern University.

He added: “Who steps in for the Republican Party and takes up the MAGA banner? And I suspect more than just DeSantis are thinking in this regard.”

Mission: Impossible? Criticizing Trump without alienating his base

Before DeSantis dropped out, there was chatter that he might stay in the race for an extended period – even if he was losing by wide margins – to be poised to capitalize if Trump’s legal troubles catch up with him.

That carried a risk of seriously damaging DeSantis’ political brand, though, as Trump continued to hammer him and his image took a hit from racking up big losses. Continuing to antagonize Trump and the MAGA base could have made it more difficult for DeSantis to run again.

By dropping out but working to stay in the national spotlight, DeSantis can rebuild his brand and be prepared if something happens to torpedo Trump’s campaign. He can also lay the groundwork to run again in 2028, which may be the more likely scenario.

"He wants to be part of the conversation to keep his name before Republican voters in preparation of the 2028 election," Koger said. "His behavior clearly indicates he’s planning on running again.”

In addition to his continued focus on presidential politics, there are other signs that DeSantis may be eyeing a future campaign.

The governor’s social media activity has attracted attention.

DeSantis developed a reputation for being stiff in some of his interactions on the presidential campaign trail. But recent videos that DeSantis has put out present him in more relaxed, informal settings. They are selfie-style closeup videos of DeSantis talking policy. Two of the videos show DeSantis in a car.

Presenting a more casual, relatable image is something that some GOP campaign operatives believe is a prerequisite for any future DeSantis campaigns.

One thing DeSantis isn’t changing is his focus on hot-button topics that animate GOP voters. He continues to bash Biden, and highlight the immigration debate that has become so central to Republican politics.

“All of this is just nonsense what Biden’s doing. Texas has every right to stand its ground,” DeSantis said in the first post-presidential campaign video he posted on his official X account.

The Jan. 25 video from inside a vehicle criticizes the president over a standoff with Texas regarding the state’s border policies.

“If we don’t have sovereignty in this country then we’re not going to be a country anymore, so they have every right … to stay the course,” DeSantis said. “And Florida will continue to be there, helping out every step of the way.”

Koger noted that "there was essentially no break" between DeSantis' presidential campaign and his latest series of communications.

"He came back and immediately started focusing on national issues even though Florida has it’s own problems," Koger said. "Instead he’s focused on immigration policy in Texas.”

This article originally appeared on Sarasota Herald-Tribune: Is Ron DeSantis running shadow campaign in case Donald Trump implodes?