Shelby County health department 'cautiously optimistic' as omicron trends downward
Though hospitalizations remain at record pandemic levels, other indicators tracked by Shelby County officials indicate the county may have passed the worst of the omicron variant.
The seven-day rolling average of new cases was 1,699 on Thursday, a 26.3% decrease from 2,305 new cases per day one week ago, and a 29.5% decrease from 2,409 cases per day two weeks ago.
The test positivity rate and active cases of COVID-19 are both at lower levels from seven days ago.
"It is too early to say it has peaked, but we are cautiously optimistic," a Shelby County Health Department spokesperson said Thursday.
Omicron, the dominant strain of COVID-19 in Shelby County, was first detected by laboratory sequencing in the area on Dec. 11, weeks after the variant was first detected by scientists in South Africa in November 2021.
As the most transmissible variant of COVID-19 to date in the pandemic, the soaring case numbers reintroduced another volley of disruptions in Shelby County. Workers, particularly those in the service industry, reported unstable staffing as omicron spread in work environments.
More: How omicron is wreaking another round of havoc on Memphis restaurants
Hospitals, beleaguered and understaffed from multiple bouts with variants, faced renewed strain according to Doug McGowen, the City of Memphis Chief Operations Officer.
While preliminary research from South Africa and the United Kingdom suggested omicron surges produced, on average, less severe illnesses and hospitalizations than previous variants, the sheer number of people infected by omicron in the county once again slashed the availability of acute care and intensive care unit beds.
As of Wednesday night, 640 individuals are in acute care beds with complications from the virus, and 139 individuals are in ICU beds.
The case curve tracked by the day positive COVID-19 tests were collected — as opposed to the date the tests were reported to the public — is a metric that lags by about a week, but offers a clearer picture of how the pandemic is unfolding in Shelby County.
According to the date-specific data, the highest total of new COVID-19 cases occurred on New Year's Day, when 2,625 residents tested positive.
With the exception of a two-day stretch, positive COVID-19 tests have slowly declined since the record set on Jan. 1.
Micaela Watts is a reporter for The Commercial Appeal and can be reached at micaela.watts@commercialappeal.com.
This article originally appeared on Memphis Commercial Appeal: omicron in Shelby County declining numbers but officials urge caution
