Shifting NJ population: See where people are leaving and where they are going
A shifting landscape in New Jersey suburbs could soon see Morris County's population officially overtake that of its historically bigger and decidedly more urban neighbor, Passaic County.
Census bureau population estimates show that Morris County has added residents since the 2020 census, while Passaic County has suffered its first major population decline since the 1970s. According to the most recent estimates, Morris County is fewer than 3,000 residents behind. It also brings a stronger growth rate than Passaic County, which is shedding residents at a significant rate for the first time in more than 40 years.
The competition among the North Jersey neighbors mirrors the one between Ocean and Monmouth counties. As of the 2020 census, Ocean surpassed its neighbor nearer to New York City, though in much more dramatic fashion. Since the 1970 U.S. census, Ocean's population has increased by more than 214%, according to the most recent estimates. Monmouth has seen its population rise 39%, which is 10% more than the total state population increase over that same span.
Since 2010, Ocean County's 13.7% estimated growth has far surpassed that of every other New Jersey county. Even as the state has seen an estimated loss of more than 27,000 residents since 2020, Ocean has seen gains on the back of increases in its most populated census districts: Lakewood and Toms River.
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Since the 2020 count, Lakewood and Toms River are the largest census tracts in New Jersey to gain residents, according to Census Bureau estimates. The rest of the Garden State's population centers have all seen declines, including each of its 10 largest cities.
Despite the estimated dip, the overall trend for the majority of New Jersey's cities is one of significant growth. The three largest cities, Newark, Jersey City and Paterson, have seen growth of at least 7.5% between 2018 and 2022. New Jersey's total population, meanwhile, increased by only an estimated 5.3% between 2010 and 2022.
According to a 2022 assessment from the New Jersey Policy Lab at Rutgers University, many of the state's trends continue to hold. Population density is highest along the corridor between Manhattan and Philadelphia. Moreover, public transportation to "major cities both within and outside of the state appears to have been a prime lure, perhaps along with the quality of public schools," it said.
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Still, since 2010, some cities have seen limited growth or even losses. Camden most notably has lost more than 8% of its population and could in future years slip behind Passaic, East Orange and Bayonne.
New Jersey's largest census tracts
These New Jersey census tracts have the largest populations:
Newark: 305,339
Jersey City: 286,661
Paterson: 156,639
Elizabeth: 134,274
Toms River: 95,021
Trenton: 89,658
Clifton: 88,722
Lakewood: 74,485
Camden: 70,998
Bayonne: 69,527
Passaic: 69,121
East Orange: 68,445
Union City: 65,365
This article originally appeared on NorthJersey.com: US 2020 census: NJ population keeps shifting, see where
