'Shivery and snowy': Almanac predictions agree on cold and snowy winter in Peoria

What's "unreasonable" weather? Apparently, this winter we'll find out.

Central Illinois residents are accustomed to wild winter weather swings, where one February can bring a "Snowmageddon" and another a downright balmy spell. But a winter season beyond reason is the forecast from one of the country's weather almanacs.

Don't like the sound of that? The other almanac predicts a less-ominous winter for much of the Midwest, but still cold and snowy.

Here's what the two periodical prognosticators say is in store for central Illinois.

Related:Here's when winter weather typically hits Peoria in fall

The Farmers' Almanac

The extended winter weather forecast for the Farmers' Almanac calls for an "unreasonably cold snowy" season for the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and Midwest zone, which includes Illinois.

What might "unreasonably" entail?

"Extra flannels necessary," the almanac says, especially in late January, when "what might be one of the coldest outbreaks of arctic air we have seen in several years" is predicted.

The Farmers' Almanac, which dates to 1818, says its long-range forecast is based on a "mathematical and astronomical" formula that incorporates "sunspot activity, tidal action of the Moon, the position of the planets, and a variety of other factors." It denies the use of computer satellite tracking equipment, weather lore or, rather defensively, groundhogs.

The Farmers' Almanac website says "many longtime Almanac followers maintain that our forecasts are 80% to 85% accurate."

The Old Farmer's Almanac

The rival Old Farmer's Almanac — dating to 1792 — predicts a “shivery" and "snowy” winter for much of the Midwest, with above-average precipitation from the lower Great Lakes into Missouri. The Old Farmer places the Peoria area on the border of two regions.

The Heartland region, roughly west of Peoria, "will be colder than normal, on average," with precipitation and snowfall above average. The snowiest periods are forecast in late November, parts of January and February.

The Lower Lakes region, which also extends into central Illinois, is forecast to be colder than normal, with precipitation and snowfall above average. The snowiest periods are forecast for late November to early December and parts of January.

The Old Farmer's Almanac says it employs solar science; the study of sunspots and other solar activity; climatology; and meteorology in its long-range predictions. Its forecasts are "based on 30-year statistical averages prepared by government meteorological agencies." Its website claims 80% accuracy.

National Weather Service

So, how do the periodical publications align with the National Weather Service? We won't know for a while.

The NWS in Lincoln, which covers Peoria and the rest of central Illinois, won't release a seasonal outlook until later in October, said lead meteorologist Ben Deubelbeiss.

The NWS outlook for meteorological winter, which is December through February, is provided by the Climate Prediction Center, based on a number of factors. An analysis of the state of the oceans and the atmosphere is fed into multiple dynamic and statistical models.

Deubelbeiss declined to comment on the almanacs.

First snows in Peoria

But central Illinoisans likely needn't worry for a while.

Deubelbeiss said that in Peoria the earliest measurable snowfall — defined as one-tenth of an inch or more — occurred on Oct. 18, 1972. The average date of the first measurable snowfall is Nov. 22.

This article originally appeared on Journal Star: Farmers' Almanac predicts 'unreasonably cold snowy' winter for Peoria