Shootings continue to decrease in New Jersey — but still trouble experts. Here's why

After a significant one-year reduction in gun violence, New Jersey’s shooting statistics in 2022 dipped closer to pre-pandemic levels, according to data the State Police made public this month.

What the data shows

Declines across the board: Shooting incidents in New Jersey decreased by 19% from 1,057 in 2021 to 857 in 2022, the number of gunshot victims dropped by 25% from 1,413 to 1,059, and gun deaths fell by 17% from 249 to 207, the State Police statistics showed.

Still higher than before the pandemic: But those reductions still left New Jersey with higher numbers of shootings, victims, and deaths in 2022 than it had in 2019, according to the data. For example, the 207 people killed in shootings statewide last year represented a 30% increase compared to the 159 fatalities in 2019.

Expert analysis: “The numbers are trending in the direction we want, down,” said Brian Higgins, a former chief of the Bergen County police and an adjunct professor at John Jay College of Criminal Justice in Manhattan. “But I think it’s still too early to take a victory lap.”

What the New Jersey attorney general said

Counter to political narratives: New Jersey Attorney General Matthew Platkin said the state’s gun violence statistics for 2022 refuted what he called “political narratives” declaring that crime is on the rise.

“The goal is always to have zero shootings,” Platkin said during a phone interview on Friday morning. “But these numbers show that what we’re doing is working.”

Community efforts help police: The Attorney General cited the sharing of intelligence among law enforcement agencies by the state’s gun violence reduction task force and the efforts of anti-violence community groups, including programs like the Paterson Healing Collective.

“I think we should be celebrating the great police work that’s going on in our state,” Platkin added.

Warning about 2019 data: The Attorney General said comparing last year’s shootings statistics with data from 2019 would skew the picture because he said 2019 was a “historically low year.” Platkin’s staff provided a chart that showed the number of shootings in New Jersey in 2019 was lower than any other year since 2008.

Bail reform questions: The Attorney General also cited numbers from that chart to call into question assertions that bail reform enacted in 2017 has caused a spike in crime in New Jersey. He noted that shooting incidents in New Jersey have been lower in the five years after bail reform than they were in the five years prior to the change in state laws that opened the way for many people merely charged with crimes to remain free until their cases get resolved.

"We are proud of the progress we have made to reduce shootings in the state,” said Gov. Phil Murphy’s spokesman, Tyler Jones. “We recognize that there is still much more work to be done on this issue and will continue to work tirelessly in partnership with the Attorney General and the NJ State Police to build on the progress we have made.”

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What experts said

Jillian Snider, a retired New York City police officer and an adjunct lecturer at John Jay College, said many experts don’t think it’s “appropriate” to use crime numbers from 2020 and 2021 as a basis for comparison “because they were so many variables affecting criminal behavior.”

Pandemic-era spikes: Snider and other experts cited the COVID-19 pandemic, the ripple effects of the George Floyd murder and protests, high unemployment and other crises.

“When I talk to my colleagues at John Jay, we say 2019 is the last real set of numbers we have,” said Snider, who is also policy director for the Washington, D.C.-based R Street Institute think tank. “2019 was the last year we have when we weren’t seeing anything out of the ordinary.”

National downturn: Snider said New Jersey’s downward trend for shootings in 2022 matched what happened in other places around the country that endured spikes in violent crime in 2021 and 2020. She said that trend has continued in the early part of 2023 in many cities in America. Platkin said the same thing has been happening in New Jersey in the first three months.

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Record years: Paterson had back-to-back, record-setting homicide numbers in 2020 and 2021. The city also had the highest number of shootings (118) and shooting victims (165) in 2020 since the police department began tracking that data about 15 years ago. In 2022, Paterson had 98 shootings and 125 gunshot victims.

What officials said: Mayor Andre Sayegh noted that Paterson police have seized 600 guns in the past three years, an effort he cited while discussing the 2022 reduction in shootings. Sayegh said the city will try to “build on this progress” when he, his police chief and public safety director travel to Omaha, Nebraska, next month to get first-hand information about a program there that has gained accolades for fighting crime with community partnerships.

“Reducing crime and ensuring public safety has always been top priority for my administration,” Sayegh said. “The statistics we have achieved so far are a testament to the dedication and hard work of our law enforcement and community members.”

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Experts: There are lessons in Newark

Brick City successes: Some experts said Paterson ought to look toward Newark for ways to combat gun violence. That Essex County city had 32% reductions in shootings and gunshot victims last year. Newark’s 2022 shooting numbers also were lower than those for 2019, bucking the statewide trend.

Snider, the John Jay College lecturer, said those statistics were particularly interesting considering Newark’s reputation as a high crime area.

Snider noted that various reforms aimed at improving community relations were made at the Newark police department in the past decade as part of a United States Justice Department intervention. She wondered whether police-community relations in Newark have played a role in the reductions in shootings.

'Consistent and reliable funding': Emily Schwartz of the Newark-based Institute for Social Justice also said the Newark data was noteworthy. Schwartz noted that the Brick City has had a successful community-based violence intervention group, the Newark Community Street Team, operating for years. She said she believes the cumulative impact of the NCST’s work over an extended period of time has helped produce the reduction in shootings in Newark.

“It doesn’t just happen in six months, it doesn’t just happen in one year,” Schwartz said. “It requires consistent and reliable funding.”

Newark Mayor Ras J. Baraka said community involvement was "a central, critical force in building the solution" to his city's efforts in reducing shootings.

“This ecosystem leverages the expertise of neighborhood organizations, social workers, medical professionals, educators, and others who work together to reduce crime and violence," Baraka said. "Combined with public safety’s outstanding intelligence-based policing and focused deterrence, we see our crime statistics falling."

Healing Collective has promise: The Newark street team provided guidance to the Paterson Healing Collective when that group made its debut in the fall of 2020. Schwartz said the Healing Collective’s efforts may have curbed gun violence in Paterson.

“I think we’ll be seeing the impact of the Paterson Healing Collective in the next couple of years,” she stated.

Joe Malinconico is editor of Paterson Press. Email: editor@patersonpress.com

This article originally appeared on NorthJersey.com: NJ shootings decrease in 2022, but not at pre-COVID levels