Shoppers seeing higher turkey prices this Thanksgiving after bird flu outbreak

With Thanksgiving just around the corner, families are finalizing their menus and making sure they have everything on their grocery lists. But as shoppers head to the store, they can expect to see significantly higher prices for their turkey this year.

It’s been a rough year for the industry. A bird flu outbreak — one of the worst in history — wiped out millions of turkeys and other birds destined for holiday meals across the country, including here in Indiana.

Will there be a shortage of turkeys? No, consumers will still be able to find them in the stores. Still, they will definitely be more expensive and likely will be a bit smaller than what families are used to cooking with.

“There’s no getting around that avian influenza continues to be a very serious issue across the nation,” said Becky Joniskan, president of the Indiana State Poultry Association. “The turkey industry continues to be particularly hard hit.”

Indiana was ground zero for this year’s outbreak — the first case of the highly pathogenic H5N1 strain of avian influenza was detected here in Indiana Feb. 8. The deadly virus has since spread to more than 40 states across the country.

Here’s more about what consumers can expect this Thanksgiving holiday.

How many birds have died from bird flu across the U.S.? 

As many as 45 million birds across the country — including turkeys, ducks and backyard flocks — have either died from the virus or been “depopulated” due to exposure and to minimize spread, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

Of that number, nearly 8 million turkeys have been lost as a result of the virus. That represents 3% of annual turkey production.

While it may not seem like a lot, experts acknowledge that it still can have a significant impact on top of an already shrinking national turkey flock.

How many turkeys have died from bird flu in Indiana? 

Within Indiana, farmers lost nearly 172,000 turkeys as a result of the outbreak, which impacted 14 farms across five counties. Indiana is the fourth largest producer of turkeys across the country, behind Minnesota, North Carolina and Arkansas.

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While Indiana was hit hard and is a major producer, most turkeys in Indiana are not sold as whole birds — like those that families eat for Thanksgiving. Many of those big, fit-for-a-feast birds come from Minnesota.

Most of Indiana’s turkeys, rather, go to ground turkey or turkey breast for deli meat.

What does this mean for turkey prices? 

All cuts of turkey are seeing a surge in prices compared to this spring and previous years, according to data from CoBank, one of the main banks for rural America and the agricultural economy.

Over the past decade, the prices for retail whole turkeys ahead of Thanksgiving have hovered just under $1 per pound of meat. That number jumped to $1.58 per pound of frozen turkey, according to the USDA’s National Retail Report for October.

That is 47% more expensive than this same time last year. It also means that the average price of a 20-pound bird will be $10 higher, or up around $31.50 this Thanksgiving.

What else is contributing to higher prices?

While this year’s bird flu outbreak has had a big impact on Thanksgiving turkey prices, it is not the only thing driving up costs.

The poultry supply chain has been impacted by a variety of factors, similar to other agricultural sectors. That includes global conflicts such as the war in Ukraine, workforce shortages as well as increases in prices for feed, energy, fuel and labor.

Inflation has been felt across grocery store shelves and freezer boxes, and turkey prices are not immune.

What does the bird flu outbreak mean for turkey sizes? 

Not only has the outbreak led to higher prices, but it has affected production in yet another way: the size of the turkeys.

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Since the spring when the outbreaks began to spread, the average weight of turkeys have dropped from the three-year average by about one pound.

The year-to-date turkey production by pounds is down 5% compared to last year. If the trend holds, CoBank says that production for 2022 will decrease by close to 10% — the largest annual reduction in more than a decade.

Is this the first time the turkey industry has struggled?

The turkey industry as a whole has had a rough couple of decades. Farmers saw record-high feed costs during the 2012 drought followed by the first major outbreak of bird flu in 2015.

That was the worst animal-health event in U.S. history, when 50 million birds died. This year’s outbreak is on track to surpass that disaster.

The 2015 outbreak also sent prices soaring, which led to years of stagnant consumer demand and dropping per-capita turkey consumption. As a result, the turkey industry began slowly contracting.

Is bird flu back on the rise?  

Spring was a tough time for outbreaks, including here in Indiana. All of the state’s cases of bird flu on commercial farms popped up in February and March.

Things got a bit better over the summer and many were hopeful that the danger had passed. However, cases have started ticking up again in the last couple months. Both waves have been tied to the migrations of wild birds, which can be infected from bird flu but don’t die from it. That allows them to spread the illness to farm birds.

So far, no Indiana farms have been impacted in this latest upswing.

“Indiana has been fortunate and has not had any instances in commercial turkeys since March of this year,” Joniskan said, “but we remain very vigilant to prevent that.”

All of the turkey farms that were affected in Indiana earlier this year have been approved for restocking, she said.

How should I shop for this year's turkey?

While there shouldn’t be a shortage of turkeys, Joniskan still recommends that consumers shop early if there is a particular type or size of turkey they are looking for to make sure they are able to get it. Also, she said there are a few ways Hoosiers could support Indiana turkey farmers.

“It might be a year that if you want to eat Indiana turkey then you look at some of those other products,” Joniskan said.

She said shoppers can get the individual breasts, ground turkey to make a loaf or just make a really great turkey sandwich.

"That’s what it’s all about anyways,” she said.

Call IndyStar reporter Sarah Bowman at 317-444-6129 or email at sarah.bowman@indystar.com. Follow her on Twitter and Facebook: @IndyStarSarah. Connect with IndyStar’s environmental reporters: Join The Scrub on Facebook.

IndyStar's environmental reporting project is made possible through the generous support of the nonprofit Nina Mason Pulliam Charitable Trust.

This article originally appeared on Indianapolis Star: Bird flu outbreak drives turkey prices high ahead of Thanksgiving