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The consensus strategy for tonight‘s showdown slate between the Milwaukee Bucks and the Brooklyn Nets starts with rostering both Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant. Pointsbet.com has the Nets favored at -2 points with a 215.5 O/U. Pivoting on a showdown slate can be difficult. I decided to go over tonight’s Game 7 using a slightly different format. The only thing more important than knowing which players are viable pivots is understanding the strategic nature of showdown slates.
First things first, make sure you're rostering players with a game narrative in mind. If you believe that the Milwaukee Bucks are going to win but the game will stay close, Giannis and Durant are logical investments. Now, If you believe one team blows out the other, investing in valuable bench players is the way you’ll want to go. As I’ve said before, a daily fantasy lineup is simply a manifestation of how a given game will play out. Is Giannis going to hit foul trouble? If so, will Middleton take over his usage? Or will it be Holiday? Can Brooklyn destroy Milwaukee? These are the types of questions you must ask yourself while constructing a showdown slate DFS lineup. Do I recommend fading Giannis and Durant? No. With that said, fading one or two of these superstars is a possible strategy for tonight. Avoiding Durant and/or Giannis will make your lineup unique right off the bat. Pivoting off these players can come at a major price, chalk is chalk for a reason, always remember that!
The second most important thing about showdown slates is the importance of rostering as many superstars as possible. Think about it logically. An average daily fantasy player receives (roughly) 25 to 45 fantasy points on a given night. Superstar players such as Durant and Antetokounmpo can see upwards of 70 fantasy points. Although their salaries are significantly higher, an optimal lineup will always include these players simply because of their upside. Valuable options are available in PJ Tucker, Jeff Green, Brook Lopez, and more allowing you to afford the elite players. Having the salary flexibility to fit Harden, Durant, and/or Giannis should not be difficult. Players who are sitting at mid-range salaries salary can produce but will never supply the upside that Harden, Durant, and/or Giannis would. Showdown slates are different from all other types of daily fantasy competitions. The MVP slot is crucial for DFS success. Let’s discuss why.
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The MVP slot should be your first and most confident selection. Most daily fantasy players tonight will be rostering Giannis, Harden, or Durant in their MVP position.. Another possible pivoting strategy could be to not roster a superstar in that MVP position, but I would not recommend this. The only non-superstar that I would consider a rostering in the MVP slot tonight is Khris Middleton. We’ve all seen his upside throughout these playoffs. He could also potentially go lower rostered with roughly 75% of the field likely to invest in either Antetokounmpo or Durrant as their MVP. Once again, avoiding the superstars is a GPP pivoting option, it’s just not completely safe considering Durrant and Giannis are expected to have massive production efforts tonight.
PG Bryn Forbes
SG Joe Harris
SF P.J. Tucker
PF Jeff Green