Shreve angers base with gun control plan that NRA calls 'pathetic'. Will it pay off?

When Republican mayoral candidate Jefferson Shreve announced last week that he supports stricter gun control and would lobby the Indiana General Assembly for an assault weapon ban, ending permitless carry, and raising the legal age to buy a gun from 18 to 21 years old in Indianapolis, conservative voters and pundits reacted with ire and confusion.

The NRA, which Shreve said he was a member of in April, also condemned him as "pathetic."

“The election was lost today by Jefferson Shreve,” Jason Hammer, a local radio talk show host on WIBC, said on his show Thursday evening. “He had a chance and now he’s crapped all over his base of law-abiding citizens.”

Shreve has taken quite a risk. He has to appeal to moderate voters in Democratic-leaning Indianapolis, given that there aren't enough party-line Republican voters to win him an election. But by taking a stand for gun control, he risks losing his base and may not be able to win without them. And some political watchers point out proposing a gun control agenda similar to Mayor Joe Hogsett's won't necessarily help him take votes from Hogsett.

Shreve has sought to differentiate himself from Hogsett by saying he would work his relationships with his fellow Republican Indiana state lawmakers to get his gun control proposal passed, if elected. Both Hogsett's and Shreve's plans would involve overturning a state law, something most experts agree is unlikely for either of them to achieve.

For Shreve, this move also represents a change of heart on guns. In 2016, he ran on a strong Second Amendment platform.

“I believe in responsible, lawful gun ownership," Shreve told IndyStar Friday. "I'm personally a responsible gun owner. But things are very different today in Indianapolis than they were in 2016. My public safety plan is a plan for today’s challenges in our state’s urban core.”

He added that he does not expect everyone to agree with his entire public safety plan but that it is clear Indianapolis has to start doing things differently to make the city a safer, better place to live.

Some Republicans are not entirely on board with his tactics though.

"Agreeing with your opponent is not exactly a great strategy," former Republican Sen. Jim Merritt, who sought unsuccessfully to unseat Hogsett in 2019, told IndyStar, though he said he still supports Shreve. "Agreeing with your opponent, people would shrug and say what’s the difference?"

Other experts, though, said moving to the middle may have been necessary for Shreve to win an election in a city where no Republican has won county-wide since 2011, when Republican Mayor Greg Ballard won his bid for a second term. Indianapolis voters lean about 60-40 Democratic, according to 2022 election results.

“It could be argued that in order for a Republican to win city-wide in Indianapolis they need to be able to appeal to Democratic voters,” Indiana pundit Andy Downs said after Shreve's announcement. “If that’s the case then you got to figure out what’s the best way to appeal to Democratic voters. Given the concern over public safety issues, gun control or guns or some version of public safety could be a pretty effective way to do that.”

And at the very least, some experts said, Shreve took ammunition away from Hogsett, whose campaign had sought to portray him as a far-right, NRA-supporting conservative.

Blake Hesch, Hogsett's campaign manager, wrote in a statement after Shreve announced his public safety plan last Thursday that the plan was a "gun flip-flop," and called it a hodgepodge of repackaged programs that already exist and meaningless platitudes.

And the general population's views on gun control may not be as clear cut as some believe. A small majority of Hoosiers — 52% — support an assault weapon ban, although 59% of Hoosier Republicans oppose it, according to the 2019 Hoosier Survey conducted by Ball State University. Meanwhile, nationwide, 75% of respondents to an August 2022 University of Chicago and Associated Press poll supported raising the minimum age to purchase a firearm to 21, and 57% opposed permitless carry.

Crime, it should be clear, is a key issue in Indianapolis and many have criticized high murder rates during Hogsett's tenure, though homicides have been on the rise since at least 2012, well before he took office.

Indianapolis saw record-high homicides at 271 in 2021. Although the number of killings have gone down, they are still high, with 100 criminal homicides as of July 13 this year compared to 116 on the same date in 2022 and 133 in 2021, according to IMPD data.

Many gun violence prevention advocates in the city are strongly in support of stricter gun control measures, which were embodied in Hogsett’s plan passed by the City-County Council on July 10.

More: How will Hogsett's big gun violence prevention plan fight crime?

More: Republican mayoral candidate Shreve calls for stricter gun control in public safety plan

Shreve must walk a fine line

For Shreve, it will matter how many Republican voters agree with conservative pundits in denouncing his plan. How Shreve’s conservative base ultimately reacts to his pro-gun control stance is a significant issue, Downs said.

“The issue is, have you given up too much of your base in order to win a little bit of the other party?” he said. “The math, and that’s what it comes down to, is how many from your party would truly not vote for you.”

Sen. Aaron Freeman, R-Indianapolis, said Shreve has a huge problem in winning over a Democrat-leaning county. But in threading that needle, Freeman said, Shreve still needs conservative and Republican-leaning people to vote for him.

“There are core issues Republicans believe in and are in our party platform as a state: the Second Amendment and any lawful person should be able, in my opinion, to possess and carry a handgun,” Freeman said.

The National Rifle Association Indiana State Director, John Weber, criticized both Shreve's and Hogsett's stances in a statement, first reported by Importantville, that the NRA sent to IndyStar Tuesday.

"The issue of violent crime can be addressed by a simple, yet highly effective solution: prosecute and punish the violent perpetrators," Weber wrote. "Politicians who can't grasp this concept don't deserve to be elected. But even worse are the candidates who will say anything — and even contradict themselves — just to remain relevant. It's truly pathetic."

Some Republicans who disagree with Shreve’s gun control stance said they would still vote for him, including Freeman and Indianapolis Republican councilor Brian Mowery, even as others said they wouldn't.

“I’m sorry Jefferson has gone down that road,” Freeman said. “I like him. I'm going to vote for him. But that was a mistake and he played right into the mayor's hands.”

Shreve's plan also puts him out of step with messaging from Republicans on the City-County Council.

Mowery, the City-County Council minority leader, had slammed Hogsett’s very similar proposal before it passed in council last week as unconstitutional and said it takes away rights of law-abiding citizens from owning firearms. Still, he said he supports Shreve.

“We’re not always going to agree on everything and there’s a lot of great in the plan, not with respect to the gun control measures,” Mowery told IndyStar. He added that people should not lose focus of the fact that city leaders have no control over gun regulation.

Indianapolis’ major cities have historically seen Republican mayors who end up doing things not in alignment with the rest of the party, Downs said. Former Fort Wayne mayor Paul Helmke, Downs said, had long advocated for stricter gun control including as a Republican mayor in the 1980s and '90s, and Mayor Greg Ballard more recently, Downs said, is seen as too liberal or too moderate for statewide office.

Ballard issued a statement in support of Shreve last Thursday.

"I was often told not being a politician was my biggest strength," Ballard wrote in a statement distributed by Shreve's campaign. "Jefferson isn’t a politician either. Jefferson is a rational, intelligent individual who cares only for the city of Indianapolis. Anyone who says otherwise is incorrect.”

At stake in the discussion about Shreve’s gun control agenda, Helmke told IndyStar, is what the Republican party stands for today.

“Part of it is an argument about what it means to be a Republican anymore.” Helmke said. “Republican used to mean local control, used to mean public safety and law and order. Jefferson Shreve is arguing what Republicans were when I was growing up. It’s part of the battle of the Republican soul.”

Helmke pointed to how President Ronald Reagan and his wife were involved in the gun control movement, as was President George H.W. Bush and President George W. Bush.

Reagan pushed for the 1994 Brady Handgun Violence Prevention Act which mandated federal background checks on firearm purchases. H.W. Bush had banned imports of assault rifles in 1989, leading to the 1994 federal assault weapons ban which expired in 2004. Bush said then that he would have renewed the assault weapons ban if it crossed his table.

Hogsett put gun control on the agenda

Why has gun control, something which the Indianapolis mayor has no legal authority over, become a focal point of this year’s election? Political experts said it shows the way Hogsett’s public safety agenda has dominated the election.

In May, Hogsett’s public safety plan announcement put gun control and fighting the Indiana General Assembly to repeal a 2011 Indiana law that prohibits cities and towns from passing stricter gun control regulations on the agenda.

At the same time, Hogsett’s campaign and Indiana Democrats have been portraying Shreve as a NRA-supporting, pro-Second Amendment conservative who would work hand-in-hand with the state legislature to repeal commonsense gun laws, through a campaign ad and statements that unearthed Shreve’s pro-Second Amendment comments made in a 2016 Indiana Senate campaign ad. That ad has since been deleted from the ShreveforMayor Facebook page. IndyStar reviewed the ad prior to the deletion.

"And Jefferson Shreve will fight for...our Second Amendment rights," the ad narrator said. "Jefferson Shreve, the conservative Republican we can count on in the state Senate."

Then again, by coming out against the state legislature on gun measures and aligning with Hogsett’s stance, Shreve has managed to weaken Hogsett’s attack on his gun record, political expert Downs said.

“It might cause Shreve problems saying he’s a flip-flop,” Downs said. “Shreve is going to have to show some action behind the words.”

Blake Hesch, Hogsett's campaign manager, accused Shreve of hypocrisy after he announced his plan last week, stating Shreve was either misleading the NRA in 2016 to get the highest grade or is misleading voters now.

“Either way, he’s willing to say or do anything to get elected,” Hesch said.

Hesch was referring to the AQ rating, the highest available for a candidate without an established voting record, given to Shreve by the National Rifle Association during Shreve's 2016 Indiana Senate bid, when he lost the Republican primary.

Shreve had told IndyStar in April that he has an NRA membership that dates back to him having taken their handgun safety course in 2011, when he bought a handgun that he still owns, but that was the extent of his involvement in the NRA.

Shreve added in the Friday statement to IndyStar that he believes Indianapolis has to change its policies, while respecting that different policies would work for other parts of the state.

“There is nothing responsible about 19-year-old kids who are drunk waving their guns around in neighborhoods like Broad Ripple, or gang members shooting guns at kids in a park,” Shreve said.

Indianapolis vs. the Indiana General Assembly

Political watchers and Statehouse Republicans said it’s unlikely either Shreve or Hogsett’s proposals would ever gain traction in the Indiana General Assembly.

Statehouse Republicans, including Freeman, said they think repealing the 2011 law to allow Indianapolis to pass stricter gun control would never happen.

Freeman is now chair of the Senate Corrections and Criminal Law committee, which heard the 2011 bill back when it was being considered. Freeman, a former City-County Council member, was not in the Senate at that time.

Meanwhile, Sen. Jim Tomes, R-Wadesville, who was the author of the 2011 law, said what Hogsett and Shreve proposed is a violation of state law.

He added that guns are not the problem and that elected officials or candidates serious about dealing with criminal activity should focus on correcting bad behavior and lack of moral conduct.

The election is Nov. 7.

Contact the reporter at 317-903-7071 or kcheang@indystar.com.

This article originally appeared on Indianapolis Star: Indy GOP candidate Jefferson Shreve angers NRA with gun control plan