Significance of Ukraine’s breakthrough near Tokmak and damage to Russian strategic aircraft — ISW

Ukraine’s recent success in breaking through mined territory near Tokmak in Zaporizhzhya Oblast is likely connected to the latest progress of the Ukrainian Armed Forces near Robotyne, believes U.S.-based thinktank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) on Aug. 19.

Following a drone strike on the Russian Soltsy airbase in Novgorod Oblast on Aug. 18, it is plausible that Russia’s strategic aviation aircraft incurred damage. Images geolocated and released on Aug. 19 show smoke emanating from the Soltsy airbase. Russian Defense Ministry sources and other Russian outlets reported that a Ukrainian drone was downed, and that fire potentially affected a single aircraft.

An undisclosed Russian source contradicted this account, asserting that the strike harmed at least two aircraft. The source revealed that undisclosed numbers of supersonic long-range Tu-22M3 bombers, stationed at the Soltsy airbase, were also hit. The surviving aircraft were reportedly relocated to the Olenya airbase in Murmansk Oblast.

Read also: Russia’s strategic aviation reach – interview with an expert

The Ukrainian Armed Forces continued their counteroffensive operations on multiple fronts on Aug. 19, advancing both in the Avdiivka-Donetsk direction and within western Zaporizhzhya Oblast. The Ukrainian Armed Forces’ General Staff reported that offensive actions persist in the Berdyansk area, bordering the Donetsk and Zaporizhzhya oblasts, as well as in the Melitopol area of western Zaporizhzhya Oblast.

Ukrainian forces maintain the initiative around Bakhmut, said Colonel Serhiy Cherevaty, spokesperson for the Eastern Operational Command. Geolocated video recordings published as early as Aug. 16 indicate that the Ukrainian Armed Forces recently had limited advances east of Nevelske (a settlement west of Donetsk). Another set of verified geotagged videos, published on Aug. 19, confirms the northward advancement of Ukrainian forces from Robotyne, situated in the western Zaporizhzhya Oblast.

On Aug. 18, CBS News cited undisclosed U.S. officials in a report stating that Ukrainian forces were making headway towards Tokmak, a significant Russian stronghold located in the western part of Zaporizhzhya Oblast. The report also mentioned that Ukrainian forces had successfully cleared a Russian minefield to the north of the city. ISW analysts clarified that the U.S. officials are likely referring to recent Ukrainian progress to the north and east of Robotyne, approximately 23 kilometers northeast of Tokmak.

Previously, ISW assessed that recent Ukrainian gains near minor settlements on the border between Donetsk and Zaporizhzhya Oblasts, as well as in the western Zaporizhzhya Oblast, were tactically significant due to their impact on Russian defensive positions. These territorial advancements could potentially grant Ukrainian forces access to less heavily mined areas along the Russian defensive line, thus potentially expediting their progress.

Read also: Putin prepares to defend his regime by equipping Rosgvardia with tanks — Ukrainian intelligence

ISW analysts also draw attention to Russian dictator Vladimir Putin’s visit to Rostov-on-Don on August 19. This marked his first visit to the city since the Wagner Group assumed control of the Southern Military District (SMD) headquarters on June 23-24. During the visit, Putin held meetings with the Chief of the Russian General Staff and the commander of the occupying army in Ukraine, General Valery Gerasimov, alongside other senior officers, at the SMD headquarters.

Read also: Ukraine launches new phase of counteroffensive focusing on south

ISW experts point out that Putin rarely visits regions directly connected to the conflict in Ukraine. In April, the Kremlin claimed he had visited Kherson and Luhansk Oblasts, and in March, Mariupol. This recent visit to Rostov-on-Don appears to be a public demonstration of his ongoing support for Gerasimov and his team of commanders, despite their inability to suppress the Wagner Group rebellion or achieve the military objectives outlined by Putin. The timing of the visit, approximately two months after the rebellion led by Wagner’s Yevgeny Prigozhin, suggests that Putin is likely aiming to publicly assert his control over his regime and armed forces.

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