The silly season
Last week I introduced a new term, “Quiet Quitters”. This refers to a group of mostly 20- somethings on TikTok who have agreed upon boundaries regarding how hard they will work. I must have rambled on too long as my final sentence was left incomplete. My simple point: I don’t agree with a “Quiet Quitting” approach to one’s career. Seems to me, a better approach would be for one to find a vocation about which he/she is so passionate they do not feel the need for such a restrictive view of work. Of course, not everyone will be so fortunate. In fact, in the late 1970’s I was recruiting Engineers at the placement office at Rice University in Houston. I’ll never forget the following slogan posted on the wall in the waiting room, “A man who can make a living doing what he likes is damn lucky”. To this day that sticks with me and is a reason to feel blessed.
There is an abundance of employment data floating around. You’ve heard that numbers of people have simply “dropped out” of the labor market. Meanwhile, more people are working in Louisiana than ever in our history. At the same time our states’ unemployment numbers are at an all-time low.* Companies say they can’t find enough workers.** Restaurants are short-staffed, and that is taking a toll on customers and workers alike*** It truly is a strange and counterintuitive time as it relates to the workplace.
In fact, the global consulting firm, McKinsey and Company surveyed 13,000 workers between February and April of this year. Forty percent of those surveyed are considering quitting their jobs within the next six months. About half of them were in the U.S., so it’s a worldwide phenomenon. There are numerous reasons given for the “Great Resignation”, but the most common ones are pandemic induced burnout and the ability to get a higher paying job in a tight labor market. Whatever the underlying causes, it seems the Covid-19 lockdown may have changed us permanently. It is an important topic, as the labor market is a huge component of our economic system. We’ll see.****
Incidentally, we used to ask where is the grass greener? Of course, it is greenest on the other side of the fence. Later in our careers, some of us learned that it was greenest in our back yard where we watered it. Translation: With the passage of time many transient employees will likely find the following: Changes in the way one perceives opportunity might be more productive than a change in employers or geography. Nice to live and work in a free country where one can explore such things.
That leads me, once again, to where I found this week’s most compelling information regarding economic/market conditions. Brian Wesbury, Chief Economist at First Trust Advisors in his Monday Morning Outlook referred to this period as “the silly season”. As we approach the mid-term elections, a season begins wherein the interpretation of economic reports becomes skewed. Many analysts look at data through a political lens first-and with real unbiased economic analysis coming second, if ever. For example, the recession discussion rages with the murkiest of data. The real headline, economically, is about inflation. However, a true look at the data reveals that energy prices surged 7.5% in June and then dropped 4.6% in July. That’s it! That’s all you really need to know about inflation in the past two months.*****
Meanwhile, the “credible consensus” of researchers I follow continue to see blue sky ahead. There will likely be some notable bumps along the way. You can feel pretty sure that that two things will continue. Inflation is a serious problem, and the economy has room to grow. You might keep a little powder dry to seize any forthcoming opportunities. And if enough people quit working, will we still have a labor day holiday?
The opinions, forecasts, and views expressed here are those of Tommy Williams and do not necessarily represent those of Williams Financial Advisors, Private Client Services, RFG Advisory, their employees, or their clients.
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**** https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/20/40percent-of-workers-are-considering-quitting-their-jobs-soon.html
***** https://www.ftportfolios.com/Blogs/EconBlog/2022/8/22/distorted
This article originally appeared on Shreveport Times: The silly season
