‘Simply become too much’: How will Cawthorn’s controversies affect his reelection chances?

Rep. Madison Cawthorn’s penchant for confrontational politicking has landed him national name recognition, campaign dollars and a competitive primary at home.

He’s brushed off scandals in the past and on Tuesday named people he perceives as instigators.

In an Instagram video on Tuesday, Cawthorn said “the North Carolina establishment and one RINO senator” were launching a coordinated attack against him ahead of the primary. His video came just after news that he got caught with a pistol at the Charlotte airport.

“We’re starting to see this coordinated drip campaign ... where they’re going to drop an attack article every one or two days just to try and kill us with death by a thousand cuts,” Cawthorn said in the video.

Coordinated attack or not, Cawthorn’s reelection race in western North Carolina may be tightening.

Recent polling from the GOPAC Election Fund found that Cawthorn’s support dropped among primary voters over the previous month, from 49% in March to 38% in April. State Sen. Chuck Edwards sat at 21%, with other candidates such as Michele Woodhouse, Wendy Nevarez and Rodney Honeycutt at 5%.

Though the polling isn’t perfect, Chris Cooper, a political science professor at Western Carolina University, said it points to waning support for Cawthorn and growing support for Edwards.

“There’s enough drips now where it’s created a lake big enough to drown (in),” Cooper said. “And I think he’s feeling the heat.”

Drips or a drizzle?

Cawthorn apologized on Instagram Wednesday for the Charlotte airport gun incident. “I made a mistake yesterday, no excuse for it, just a flat out mistake,” Cawthorn wrote. In a video accompanying the post, he thanked law enforcement, “especially you guys in Charlotte.”

Also on Wednesday, Sen. Thom Tillis called for an investigation into whether Cawthorn engaged in insider trading, after a story from the Washington Examiner found that Cawthorn could be implicated for insider trading. A spokesman for Cawthorn didn’t return a request for comment.

This debacle is just the latest in his short political career.

When he said on the U.S. House floor being a female should be defined as “two x chromosomes and no tallywacker,” he posted a video of it on social media despite criticism about his views on gender.

READ MORE: Tillis calls for Cawthorn insider trading investigation

After showing up to a local school board meeting in August, which caused controversy as well for saying requiring masks in schools to protect against COVID-19 was child abuse, Cawthorn’s campaign contributions actually spiked.

Other scandals may not prove as fruitful, said Dallas Woodhouse, the former executive director of the N.C. GOP.

Cawthorn was cited in March for driving with an expired license, and also in March, a video emerged of Cawthorn calling Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky a “thug,” not long after Russia invaded the country.

In the district, things are changing amid the constant controversy, said former Henderson County Sheriff George Erwin.

Erwin renounced his support for Cawthorn more than a year ago. Since then, he said, other local politicians who he convinced to back Cawthorn have, too.

“There are people who will support him no matter what he does, but I’m starting to see more and more continually that people are abandoning him,” Erwin said. “People are seeing this stuff and we’re just disgusted with it.”

Retired Waynesville Police Chief Bill Hollingsed and Transylvania County Sheriff David Mahoney are among the prominent people Erwin said have moved away from Cawthorn.

Cawthorn’s website no longer carries an endorsement page.

Erwin supports Rodney Honeycutt, a former Army colonel and one of Cawthorn’s seven challengers in the Republican primary.

Dallas Woodhouse said the odds greatly favor Cawthorn in the primary. Still, as the headlines pile up, so does doubt.

“When you throw them all together, does it simply become too much for the people up there?” Dallas Woodhouse asked.

Dallas Woodhouse’s cousin is married to Michele Woodhouse, one of Cawthorn’s Republican primary opponents, but he said he has no involvement with her campaign.

Cooper said the GOPAC Election Fund poll showing declining support for Cawthorn relies on a relatively small sample size and that turnout among unaffiliated voters could be higher than expected.

Glen Bolger, a top Republican pollster who conducted an internal poll on behalf of Edwards in March, found then Cawthorn led the field with 52% of likely voters supporting him. The poll was previously reported by The New York Times and Jewish Insider.

More unaffiliated voters, Cooper wrote in an email to the Observer, would likely help Edwards and hurt Cawthorn.

Cawthorn’s competitors go on the offensive

Any of the scandals individually might not be enough to bring down his reelection. Together, they pose a threat, Cooper said.

BE READY: Early voting began Thursday. Read out our Voter Guide

Former Republican N.C. Supreme Court justice Bob Orr, an outspoken critic of Cawthorn, said the damage from scandals might have been lessened if they revolved around his policy or political talking points rather than his behavior.

“Even the most conservative Republican doesn’t really want an irresponsible representative, and they’ve got a lot of other choices,” he said.

The other choices include Edwards, the state senator, former GOP chair Woodhouse, and veterans Nevarez and Honeycutt.

Edwards posted a photo on Wednesday of an airport sign that says firearms are prohibited in security checkpoints. In one of his TV ads, Edwards tells voters “If you want a celebrity, go watch the Kardashians. But if you want a proven conservative that will fight and win, then I’m your man.”

Edwards has the endorsement of state Senate President Pro Tem Phil Berger and U.S. Sen. Tillis, former state Sen. Jim Davis, state Sen. Jim Perry and others.

Michele Woodhouse, who describes herself as the America First candidate and right of Cawthorn on policy, said people in western North Carolina are abandoning Cawthorn “in droves.”

Cawthorn endorsed her before he entered the 11th Congressional District race. He left the district for another during the state’s redistricting process, but opted to return when the maps were finalized.

“We have a member of Congress making all kinds of really bad personal decisions,” Michele Woodhouse said. “Those are the headlines. Instead, the headlines should be how Madison Cawthorn is” helping farmers or senior citizens through policy, she said.

To win the primary outright, candidates have to win one more vote than 30% of the total cast as well as more than any other candidate. If no one earns more than 30%, voters pick between the top two vote-getters in a run-off election.

With every new headline and scarce support among GOP colleagues, the chances of a run-off grow daily, Cooper said.

“He created a monster that might eat him,” he said. “He went from firebrand politician to beleaguered politician in about a year and a half.”

Though he still considers Cawthorn to be the frontrunner, Cooper said the number of credible candidates in the race will make it hard for anyone — even the incumbent, considering the amount of negative press — to break that 30%-plus-one threshold.

If he ends up in a runoff, he’ll face the other top vote-getter — and, with that, the possibility of a coalition of the conservative but anti-Cawthorn vote.