Sitting pretty: Bogaerts bet on himself and having elite season

Sep. 7—With free agency looming he's put together one of the best offensive seasons in the American League, playing for one of baseball's historic, championship-driven franchises.

At times, he's carried his team's lineup while seemingly everyone else slumps around him.

Even his defense, sometimes overlooked or undervalued, has markedly improved.

Aaron Judge?

Well, it could be him, considering his historic season and record-setting home run output for the New York Yankees.

But we're talking about Xander Bogaerts.

Despite his team's struggles and his own oft-stated dissatisfaction with his play, the veteran Red Sox shortstop is having an elite season. Bogaerts' batting average has only dipped below .300 a combined eight days all season and he now ranks among the favorites to win the AL batting title.

That's great news for Bogaerts, who is putting himself in great position ahead of his likely free agency even if it means he may also wind up pricing himself out of Boston.

Entering Tuesday Bogaerts led all AL hitters in batting average (.317) and trailed only Judge in offensive WAR (5.3) according to Baseball Reference. He also ranks highly in hits (153, second), doubles (37, tied for second), on-base percentage (.384, fourth), runs scored (77, seventh) and OPS (.853, ninth), and his plus-1 defensive runs saved at shortstop is the best of his career and ranks 12th among big league shortstops.

Bogaerts has been especially dominant lately. Monday night he tied a club record with his ninth straight multi-hit game, and over that stretch he's batted .541 (20 for 37) with an eye-popping 1.318 OPS. He was named the AL Player of the Week on Tuesday afternoon.

He has endured a significant power shortage with only 12 home runs entering Tuesday, which is on pace to be his lowest total over a full season since 2017, but outside of that he's given the Red Sox everything they could have hoped despite frequently complaining about feeling uncomfortable at the plate.

Yet as Red Sox manager Alex Cora noted, most players would kill to enjoy the level of production Bogaerts considers a slump.

"For him a grind is hitting .300. For me a grind was hitting .230 for 13 years," Cora joked on Sunday. "When they complain about that stuff, 'I'm grinding,' you're hitting .300 bro. Hit .220 or .198, that's a grind."

With the opportunity to opt out of his contract and hit free agency approaching, Bogaerts has also put himself in line for a substantial raise.

Since Bogaerts agreed to a six-year, $120 million extension in April of 2019, the market for elite shortstops has taken off. Francisco Lindor (10 years, $341 million) and Corey Seager (10 years, $325 million) both signed massive deals that far outpaced Bogaerts' comparatively modest $20 million per year, as did Carlos Correa, who will earn $35 million this year and could either pick up two additional player option years or seek a long-term mega deal in free agency himself.

Considering that Bogaerts currently leads all big league shortstops — Lindor, Seager and Correa included — in total WAR (5.4) and OPS (.853), he'd be crazy not to opt out and test his worth on the open market.

Whether or not Bogaerts enters the same "$30 million per year" stratosphere as his peers will depend on a number of factors. For one, he won't be the only top option on the market, as Trea Turner, Dansby Swanson and potentially Correa are all set to hit free agency as well. Clubs will also have to decide whether his disappointing home run totals were an aberration or an indicator of future performance.

As for where he might land, Bogaerts has spent his entire career with the Red Sox and has frequently spoken about his desire to stay, but it's not clear whether the club will be willing to pay him, especially after adding Trevor Story last offseason. If not the Red Sox, the Los Angeles Dodgers, Atlanta Braves and Minnesota Twins may be looking to replace their own star shortstops if they can't re-sign them, and others like the St. Louis Cardinals, Chicago Cubs and Philadelphia Phillies may be interested too.

Bogaerts' future remains murky as ever, but one thing that's clear is wherever he goes in 2023, he's getting paid.

Email: mcerullo@northofboston.com.

Twitter: @MacCerullo.