Sizing up the AL Central race and the top reasons the Guardians lead the pack
The race is on, and the marathon quickly transitions into a sprint to the finish.
Few, perhaps outside the Guardians clubhouse, felt Cleveland would not only be in first place as September draws near, but with a strong lead ahead of the pack in the American League Central Division. After a 3-2 extra-innings loss Friday night, the Guardians led the Minnesota Twins by three games and the Chicago White Sox by four. The Guardians not only lead the division despite dealing with double-digit doubleheaders, but they also lead the way with a +36 run differential.
First, a look at how the Guardians got here and the biggest factors to their being in first place with fewer than six weeks left in the regular season.
The contributions from Andres Gimenez, Steven Kwan, Oscar Gonzalez and others
The Guardians have featured 14 MLB debuts this season as they heavily lean on their young talent in a sink-or-swim strategy. That youthful group has collectively swam the English Channel to put the Guardians in such a commanding position.
Aside from one poor stretch in May, Steven Kwan has been a force near the top of the Guardians lineup, hitting .298 with a .371 on-base percentage and being as "annoying" of a hitter as he can be (in the most positive way possible that word can be used). Myles Straw has struggled at the plate, but Kwan has replaced him atop the lineup. Kwan also made arguably the play of the season in left field Friday night in Seattle, crashing into the stands in foul territory to catch a foul ball.
Oscar Gonzalez has also grabbed ahold of an everyday role, hitting .303 with an .806 OPS. Who knew the SpongeBob SquarePants theme song could be so daunting for opposing pitchers? Suddenly, a team that had little hope of outfield production at the major league level now has plenty of options, including Kwan, Gonzalez, Straw, Will Benson, Nolan Jones and others on the way (namely George Valera, who was recently promoted to Triple-A Columbus).
Then there's Andres Gimenez, who isn't a rookie, but after a rocky 2021 season has quickly blossomed into an All-Star level second baseman. In fact, entering Friday night, Gimenez is MLB's leader at second base with 4.6 fWAR. Along with playing a Gold Glove-level second base — there's a reason Gimenez may one day be the club's everyday shortstop — he has hit .306 with a .371 OBP and an .867 OPS, including 15 home runs, 20 doubles and 15 stolen bases.
But Gimenez has been other worldly in the games' biggest moments. With two outs and runners in scoring position, he has hit .404 with a 1.313 OPS. In "late and close" situations, he's hit .333 with a .948 OPS.
"It's pretty incredible right now," starting pitcher Cal Quantrill said of Gimenez earlier this month. "The way he's running the bases. The way he's playing D. It's really a complete player. I'm just so impressed. We all knew he was good, I just didn't realize that he was this good at everything. It's been a blast to watch. Couldn't feel more confident in my second baseman."
The pitching surge from both the starting rotation and the bullpen
For much of the season, the Guardians held their own but were often hovering around 4-5 games out of first place in the division. At one point, they were 7.5 games behind. What has led to their charge to the front? Much of that conversation revolves around the emergence of both the starting rotation and the bullpen, with both units taking a step forward.
The Guardians pitching staff was slightly above average for most of the season but still treading water near the middle of the league. In August, the Guardians have been right near the top in several categories, including pitcher fWAR (4.8, tied for first with the Tampa Bay Rays), ERA (2.85, third) and FIP (2.99, second). Easily, the Rays and Guardians have had baseball's best two pitching staffs the past four weeks.
The starting pitchers have rounded into form, finally living up to their own high expectations. Aaron Civale, who had a nightmarish beginning to the season, has been rock solid since returning from the injured list to the tune of a 2.45 ERA in three starts. Since Aug. 1, Shane Bieber (1.71 ERA and a slight uptick in his velocity), Triston McKenzie (2.94 ERA), Cal Quantrill (2.25 ERA) and Civale have combined to give the Guardians a lift. Zach Plesac (5.06 ERA since Aug. 1) is the lone starter to not enjoy a strong month.
The bullpen, meanwhile, has arguably been baseball's best in the month of August. That unit is the only bullpen in baseball with a sub-2.00 ERA (1.99) in that stretch, and they're also first in FIP at 2.54. All-Star closer Emmanuel Clase has been nearly unhittable (0.96 ERA, 12 strikeouts in 9⅓ innings). James Karinchak has been even better, returning to his video game-like numbers with 19 strikeouts in 9⅓ scoreless innings. Trevor Stephan has racked up strikeouts at a high rate (15 strikeouts, 2.08 ERA in 8⅔ innings). And Nick Sandlin has also been a weapon recently, throwing 7⅓ scoreless innings with six strikeouts.
The AL Central is a division that has been there for the taking in part thanks to severely underachieving teams in Minnesota and Chicago, at least compared to expectations entering the season. Both are treading water right around the .500 mark, leaving the door wide open for a youthful team playing well to possibly retake the division crown.
The Minnesota Twins and Chicago White Sox have faltered, leaving the door open for the Cleveland Guardians
The Twins, a team that has been aggressive in recent years, including this year's trade deadline, simply haven't put it all together. And a frustrating season for the Twins took another downturn this week when Byron Buxton hit the injured list. Buxton is an absolute MVP candidate when healthy, but it also seems like his next step always comes with a 50 percent chance it'll land him on the IL.
The White Sox, meanwhile, have been decimated by injuries. Eloy Jimenez missed significant time. Luis Robert has been in and out of the lineup. Yasmani Grandal is on the IL. On the pitching side, Michael Kopech, Garrett Crochet and Aaron Bummer are all sidelined. The White Sox are brimming with young talent, but injuries and manager Tony La Russa walking hitters when they already have two strikes against them has the White Sox looking up at both the Guardians and Twins.
The Guardians have set themselves up better in 2023 and 2024 than this year. It's a position that continues to look better by the day while the other contenders in the Central struggle to make any headway.
Sizing up the American League Central race
The Guardians are in as strong of a position as it pertains to their potential playoff standing as they have been all season. Entering Friday night, they had a 67.9 percent chance of winning the division and a 72.5 percent chance to make the playoffs, according to FanGraphs. The White Sox and Twins are right around 16 percent to overtake the Guardians for the division. FanGraphs' projections have the Guardians finishing 86-72, which would give them the No. 3 seed in the AL playoff picture and set them up against the No. 6 seed (the third wild card team).
The schedule is also favorable for the Guardians. The Twins will have a chance to make up ground because they still have eight games left against the Guardians in September. But a significant advantage for the Guardians is that they finish the season with nine home games, including the last six against the rebuilding Kansas City Royals. The Twins and White Sox, meanwhile, play each other to finish the regular season. If the Guardians can reach that final six-game stretch at least tied for the division lead, the schedule will put them in the driver's seat.
Quantifying a manger's impact is difficult to do in an exact way. But there's no doubt that 2022 has been one of Terry Francona's finest managerial jobs, leading the youngest club in the majors. Now, the baseball world will see if the Guardians can hold on to win the Central title and, if that happens, how they fare in a postseason that most didn't think would include them only a few months ago.
Ryan Lewis can be reached at rlewis@thebeaconjournal.com. Read more about the Guardians at www.beaconjournal.com/sports/cleveland-guardians. Follow him on Twitter at @ByRyanLewis.
Pitchers: Aaron Civale (2-5, 5.27) vs. Robbie Ray (10-8, 3.75)
This article originally appeared on Akron Beacon Journal: Top reasons the Guardians are in first place and a look at the playoff race
