SJ County population projected at nearly 1M by 2060

Aug. 26—According to the state's Department of Finance, California's population will most likely remain stagnant over the next 40 years, due in part to lower birth rates, an aging population and residents moving inland from the coast.

However, the agency's report, available at, says that there are areas in California that are projected to see some significant population increases through 2060.

One of those areas is San Joaquin County, where the agency expects the population to grow by 25% in those four decades.

According to the report, the county's 2023 population is 788,279. By 2060, the state is expecting 976,326 residents.

"These projections underscore the importance of comprehensive urban planning and infrastructure development, along with mitigating the associated challenges of crime, homelessness, and poverty," San Joaquin County Administrator Jay Wilverding said.

"It will be our County's goal to ensure that San Joaquin County continues to thrive as a vibrant and inclusive community for generations to come," he added.

While the county will see an overall population increase, the number of children will remain relatively flat over the next 40 years.

For example, the state says there were 10,212 5-year-olds in San Joaquin County this year, but there will be just 10,440 by 2060.

There were 12,041 18-year-olds in 2020, and the state's only projecting 11,379 by 2060.

"The San Joaquin County Office of Education is committed to supporting our local districts and the students who attend them," San Joaquin County Office of Education Public Information Officer Elisa Bubak said. "While the 2060 projections are available, our focus is on how we can serve today, and in the near future, as student enrollment fluctuation continues to balance out post-pandemic. The SJCOE is prepared to adapt based on the needs of our community and as district enrollment ebbs and flows in the coming years."

Some parts are expected to lose population between now and 2060, according to the report, and the statewide population is expected to begin declining in 2045.

Ultimately, California is expected to have 11,500 fewer residents in 2060 as it did in 2020.

The largest population declines are projected in counties such as Lassen, Plumas, Modoc and Mono.

Los Angeles County's population is expected to decline by about 1.7 million, and other large counties with projected declines include Ventura, Sonoma, San Mateo and San Francisco.