Skilling: Tornado Watch issued for Illinois, Indiana, and Wisconsin

The National Weather Service has issued a Tornado Watch for parts of Northern Illinois, Northwest Indiana, and Southeast Wisconsin until 10 p.m. on Tuesday.

This includes Cook, DuPage, Groudy, Jasper, Kane, Kankakee, Kendall, LaSalle, Lake, McHenry, Newton, Porter, Will Counties in Illinois, as well as Lake County, Indiana.

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Latest warnings and watches from the National Weather Service.

TORNADO WATCH IMMINENT.

CHICAGO AND MUCH OF THE CHICAGO METRO AREA IS NOW ASSESSED AT A “LEVEL 3” RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS on the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center’s 5-level risk scale. A SEVERE WEATHER WATCH may well be issued before the afternoon is out for the swath of the Chicago metro area for potential damaging winds, hail and possible tornadoes.

A POWERFUL LATE WINTER STORM, with twin centers—one near Rhinelander, WI; the other in the Quincy area as of mid Tuesday afternoon— is behind Tuesday’s early May level warmth which may produce a high temp of 75-deg—tying the 1976 record high for the date. A 75-deg high would be ONLY THE SECOND TIME in 153 years A HIGH TEMP EXCEEDING 70-deg has occurred on Feb 27 and would be the warmest Feb 27^th in nearly half a century (48 years). It’s a reading which equals the NORMAL HIGH IN CHICAGO May 28-30. Anything higher today would approach early June temp levels here.

A 75 deg high would ALSO TIE THE WARMEST FEB TEMP ON THE BOOKS IN CHICAGO IN 153 YEARS OF OFFICIAL RECORDS.

HERE’S A RUNDOWN ON THE JARRING WEATHER CHANGES AHEAD I RELEASED EARLIER TUESDAY AFTERNOON:

Skilling tracking potential for storms, plunging temps Tuesday night

STUNNING METEOROLOGICAL SET-UP ACROSS THE COUNTRY’s MID-SECTION, PLAINS and NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY–CHICAGO GEARS UP FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER LATE TUESDAY & TUE EVENING THEN A PERIOD OF STICKING SNOW AMID HOWLING WINDS AND A NEAR HISTORIC “DAY TO NEXT” TEMP PLUNGE POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING 50-DEG BY WEDNESDAY

NOTE: The NWS Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has, as of late Tuesday morning, boosted its predicted SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TO A “LEVEL 3” on the agency’s 5 level risk scale for Chicago’s northwest suburbs–CONTINUING A LEVEL 2 risk on the 5-level scale in the city

National Weather Service-Chicago records indicate the largest single “day to next” temp drop occurred between November 11 and 12, 1911—more than a century ago—when the city’s temps plunged from 74 to 13-deg. That was a 61-deg drop!  The 2nd biggest temp plunge from one day to the next was a 58-DEG “day to next” pullback which has occurred twice over 153 years of official Chicago weather records–the first on Jan 18-18 when temps crashed from 62 to 4 and a second Dec 13-14,1901 when temps dove from 49 to 9-below.

WHAT’S COMING HERE INSIDE THE COMING 24 HOURS, from this afternoon to Wednesday morning, MAY NOT BE A RECORD–but it will certainly be in the top tier of single day temp crashes—as temps today surge to a record breaking 76–then plummet by morning to the low to mid 20s in the city–on the order of a 50 to 55-deg drop if current forecast trends verify.

DRIVING ALL OF THIS IS A POWERHOUSE LATE WINTER STORM, centered as midday Tuesday approaches in northwest Wisconsin. The storm’s attendant cold front marks a demarcation between air masses of STUNNINGLY DIFFERENT CHARACTER–e.g. RECORD LATE FEBRUARY WARMTH within the storm’s eastern flank (where we find ourselves in Chicago as we move into Tuesday afternoon–and CRASHING TEMPS to the west amid HOWLING GALE FORCE WIND which have sent wind chills to near 20-BELOW and thermometer readings MORE THAN 50-DEG COLDER IN THE DAKOTAS when compared to 24 HOURS AGO.

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CHECK OUT THE MAPS I’M POSTING to illustrate what’s happening as you read this Tuesday.  WIND GUSTS TOPPING 60 MPH have accompanied the cold air’s arrival in the Dakotas plunging to 20-below late Tuesday morning.

ALL THIS SIGNALS SOME TRULY JARRING WEATHER CHANGES AHEAD FOR CHICAGO–including:

FIRST, LATE SPRING/EARLY SUMMER WARMTH EXPECTED TO SEND THE RECORD HIGH FOR FEB 27th: 75 in 1976 PACKING AS TUESDAY HIGHS PEAK NEAR 76-DEG

THEN, LATER TUESDAY–A LEVEL “2” SEVERE WEATHER RISK ON THE WEATHER SERVICE’S 5-LEVEL RISK SCALE in late today and early tonight. The period from 4pm to 10pm, which a special eye in the city and its northwest suburbs proper on the 6 to 10 pm time frame. NOTE: Modeling continue to suggest distinct clusters which may be selective in their severe weather production–hitting one and and missing another. But it takes only a single or small collection of storms to cause real problems–so all eyes will be monitor any t-storm clusters which emerge.

A PERIOD OF WIND-DRIVEN SNOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING–likely in the  which could produce enough sticking snow to produce TRULY CHALLENGING ICY TRAVEL CONDITIONS by Wednesday morning

A “TOP TIER” TEMP CRASH more than 50-deg in 12 hours from mid 70s late today (Tuesday) to the low and mid 20s by daybreak Wednesday–in the city and potentially to the mid to upper teens in colder surrounding areas

BUT FROM WEDNESDAY 30s back to Saturday 60s and potential Sunday 70s–the temp rebound will be dramatic in its own right.

HERE’S MY LATEST TUESDAY CHICAGO METRO FORECAST (2/27/2024)

…TORNADO WATCH TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE THE SHARP LATE NIGHT TEMP DROP AND PERIOD OF SNOW WHICH MAY CAUSE SLIPPERY/HAZARDOUS LATE NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY TRAVEL ISSUES ON LESS TRAVELED AND UNTREATED ROAD SURFACES—BE CAREFUL OF POSSIBLY SLIPPERY SIDEWALKS AND DRIVEWAYS…

TONIGHT: Clusters of active and possibly severe t-storms in the unseasonable evening warmth in portions of the area in the time frame through 10 pm CST. Hail, damaging winds and isolated tornadoes may accompany heavier storms. Then quite windy and SHARPLY COLDER. Rain showers change to snow late tonight in the 1am to 7 am time frame. Wind gusts to 40 mph possible during the temp downturn. Low 22.

WEDNESDAY: Snow exits early then clearing, windy and MUCH COLDER. Temps more than 40-deg off Tuesday’s high—and wind chills only in the upper teens or low 20s in the afternoon. High 33.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mainly clear, blustery and chilly. Low 23.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: Mostly sunny and breezy with warming temps. High Thursday 48. High Friday as March 2024 opens: 54.

SATURDAY: Back to unseasonable warmth. Sunny, breezy from the SSW and warmer still. High 64.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy and breezy with May level temps. High 71—a temp close to 30-deg above normal.

MONDAY: More clouds and mild. Showers and possible t-storms. High 66.

TUESDAY: Cloudy, showery at times and cooler. High 54.

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