Will SLO County see more high surf, flooding? Here’s what to expect this weekend

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Heavy surf smacked San Luis Obispo County’s coastline on Thursday, sending waves over seawalls, flooding beachfront streets, and causing multiple water rescues.

While the surf mellowed out on Friday, another day of high surf is forecast for Saturday — bringing with it a risk of flooding in low-lying coastal areas.

The San Luis Obispo County Office of Emergency Services advised people to stay away from the waterline this weekend — and especially avoid walking or driving on the beach, according to agency director Scott Jalbert.

People can sign up for the county’s emergency alerts at bit.ly/3vhxLoV.

Large waves hammer the Avila Beach Pier on Thursday, Dec. 29, 2023.
Large waves hammer the Avila Beach Pier on Thursday, Dec. 29, 2023.

More high surf to splash SLO County

The National Weather Service issued a high surf warning for San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara Counties through 10 p.m. Saturday.

Powerful cyclones in the Pacific Ocean cause the high swells, which create “extremely dangerous conditions” on the beaches, according to the Weather Service’s forecast discussion.

The Weather Service predicted the swells would subside on Thursday afternoon but increase again over the weekend — causing more high surf and the potential for coastal flooding through Saturday.

Breaking waves on the Central Coast will continue to be 10 to 15 feet tall with the potential for 25 feet, the Weather Service said.

“These are forecast to be extremely dangerous conditions, as powerful waves and life-threatening rip currents pose an exceptional risk of ocean drowning and damage to coastal structures such as piers and jetties,” the Weather Service wrote in Friday’s forecast discussion.

The Weather Service also issued a coastal flood warning for the San Luis Obispo County coast through Saturday evening — especially in low-lying coastal areas around the morning high tides.

In its daily forecast, the Weather Service said astronomical tides are “running a few to several tenths of a foot above normal,” and high tide will range from 5.7 feet to 6.5 feet.

That, coupled with the tides being at the peak of their monthly maximum, increased the risk of coastal flooding, the agency said.

“Overall, this is expected to be an exceptional high-surf and coastal flooding event that has not occurred in many years,” the Weather Service said. “Take caution and heed the direction of local authorities and lifeguards.”

Caution tape marks off the swingset at Avila Beach as high surf pounds the pier and coast on Thursday, Dec. 28 2023.
Caution tape marks off the swingset at Avila Beach as high surf pounds the pier and coast on Thursday, Dec. 28 2023.

Rain on the way to SLO County

On Friday, San Luis Obispo will be mostly cloudy with a 40% chance of rain, according to the National Weather Service. There’s 100% chance of rain starting at 10 p.m. on Friday night with the potential for thunderstorms.

According to the Weather Service, San Luis Obispo could get up to one inch of rain on Friday night.

In Paso Robles, there’s a 30% chance of rain on Friday that increases to 100% in the evening, with the potential to receive up to a quarter inch of rain, the Weather Service said.

On Saturday, there’s an 80% chance of rain before 10 a.m. in San Luis Obispo along with the possibly of a thunderstorm. Less rain should fall on Saturday, with the potential for less than a tenth of an inch.

On Saturday night, there’s a 10% chance of rain after 4 a.m. with an increase in cloud cover, according to the weather service.

Paso Robles will receive most of its rain on Saturday before 10 a.m., while heavy clouds are expected to blanket the city on Saturday night.

On New Year’s Eve, San Luis Obispo has a 30% chance of rain showers after 10 a.m. and a 40% chance of rain Sunday night before 4 a.m., according to the National Weather Service.

In Paso Robles, there’s a 30% chance of rain after 10 a.m. on New Year’s Eve, and a 20% chance of rain on New Year’s Day.

There’s a 20% chance of rain on the morning of New Year’s Day in San Luis Obispo, but the sun should break through the clouds at about 10 a.m.