Slow start to season: What Southwest Florida residents can expect from 2023's rainy season
Even at the start of the season, Southwest Florida sees no rain on its parade.
After months of little rainfall and scorching temperatures, Florida's rainy season kicked off Monday to another day in the sun with only slight chances of precipitation to beat the heat. Bookended by hurricane season, it is signaled by warm, humid conditions with frequent showers and thunderstorms.
The rainy season runs from May 15 to October 15 for Southwest Florida and from May 25 to October 10 for the rest of West Central Florida.
National Weather Service Ruskin senior forecaster Paul Close tells the News-Press that residents can expect a gradual beginning to 2023's season.
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Whether you're a seasoned veteran to the rainfall or completely new to the area, here is what you need to know about the upcoming months:
Will SWFL see rainfall anytime close to the start of rainy season?
Close confirmed the slow start, saying this week will see scattered storms throughout Southwest Florida. From Naples to Port Charlotte, most will only see a 30% to 40% chance of rain in the afternoons.
Is this an unusually slow start to the season?
While it's difficult to say if it's unusual, Close admits this season hasn't hit the parameters of a normal season yet.
"We're not all there yet … the water temperature is not quite up there. It has to be at 82,83 and we're still at 79, 80," Close said. "We're not quite warm enough and the high-pressure, Bermuda high usually sets up in the summer months and that hasn't set up yet."
He said it would take a few weeks for the summer patterns to kick into gear.
What exactly makes the rainy season?
The rainy season is characterized by consistently high moisture levels coupled with high temperatures that support the near-daily development of showers and thunderstorms over Florida and adjacent waters.
According to the NWS, Southwest Florida is located in the Subtropics, between the Temperate Zone to the north and the Tropical Zone just to the south. During the late spring and summer months of June through September, the tropical climate shifts north. When combined with the influence of the surrounding oceans and daily sea breezes, this leads to severe weather, such as thunderstorms.
When is Florida's dry season?
The dry season is typically late October through early May, with the driest month typically being April.
Close further elaborates that the rainy season is so critical since this period is when we get most of our rainfall, which helps power through the dry winter.
"It helps get everything back to normal, recharge all the water to keep the water table up at all and that's why it's mainly good for us," Close said.
How much rain do we possibly see during the rainy season?
Rainy season accounts for 70% of our yearly rainfall, mainly from June to September.
In Southwest Florida, typical values during thunderstorm season range from around 43 to 48 mm (1.7 to 1.9 inches), according to NWS Ruskin. When values fall to around 38 mm (1.5 inches) or less, thunderstorm coverage is usually very limited.
What are the typical temperatures?
Close says residents will see temperatures continue in the upper 80s/lower 90s for most of the season, with the hottest days will be in May and June as residents wait for the season to kick in.
What months experience typically the months and least storms?
The rainy season usually has three phases:
Late May through June is the period when severe storms are most likely. Hail, damaging winds, and waterspouts are common, in addition to heavy rainfall and frequent lightning.
July through early September is when the rainy season peaks. While the overall threat of severe weather diminishes, heavy rainfall and seasonal river flooding remain significant hazards, along with frequent lightning.
Mid-September through early October is the “wind down" phase and tends to have higher rainfall variability due to potential tropical systems and early-fall cold fronts.
Can I use my hazard lights while driving during a rainstorm?
The answer is yes, but only in certain conditions.
We are approaching the two-year anniversary (July 1, 2021) when it became legal for drivers in the Sunshine State to press that triangle button in their vehicle and activate the flashing lights when conditions create "extreme low visibility" while they are on roads with speed limits at or above 55 mph. Those weather conditions also include heavy rain, fog, or smoke.
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Before July 1, 2021, if a Florida driver had their hazard lights on – even during a downpour – they were driving illegally.
What do weather experts recommend residents do to prepare during this time?
Close reminds those to be vigilant when it comes to rainfall and lightening
"It's like that saying, 'When thunder roars, go indoors,'" Close said.
Here are some of his tips for staying safe during a thunderstorm:
As soon as you notice it's getting dark, head inside or towards shelter.
Do not wait for lightning to get closer before taking shelter.
Do not take shelter underneath a tree.
This article originally appeared on Fort Myers News-Press: 2023 Florida rainy season: what SWFL need to know from NWS experts
