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  • Australia Bonds Rebound; Stocks Set for Muted Open: Markets Wrap

    (Bloomberg) -- Australian bonds rallied strongly in early Asia trading Monday with investor focus firmly on yields after last week’s turmoil. Asian stocks looked set for a muted start.Ten-year Australian yields fell over 20 basis points, paring some of last week’s 48 basis point surge, after Treasuries rallied Friday. Benchmark Treasury yields finished the week at 1.40%. Equity futures were little changed in Japan and Australia. U.S. tech stocks staged a modest rebound on the last day of a tumultuous week as a global bond rout eased. The S&P 500 Index closed lower.The Australian dollar steadied from the prior session’s losses along with its New Zealand counterpart, despite data showing China’s economic recovery slowed in February.Last week’s selloff in global bonds stabilized after central banks from Asia to Europe moved to calm a panic that had sent Treasury yields to their highest level in a year and spurred a selloff in stocks. Investors are getting increasingly worried that accelerating inflation could trigger a pullback in monetary policy support despite assurances from the Federal Reserve that higher yields reflect optimism about the outlook for growth.“At current levels, we believe U.S. rates pricing will start to unnerve the Fed, despite its recent proclamations that it is comfortable with the rise in yields,” Eric Robertsen, chief strategist at Standard Chartered Bank, said in a note.Over the weekend, the U.S. House of Representatives passed President Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion Covid-19 aid package. The bill heads to the Senate, where Biden will need to woo Republican support or avoid losing a single Democratic vote.Read: Traders on Yield Watch in Bond Markets ‘Not for Faint-Hearted’Meanwhile, China’s economic recovery slowed in February as factories shut during the Lunar New Year holidays and virus restrictions dampened what’s usually a busy travel season.Bitcoin fell below $45,000.There are some key events to watch this week:Caixin China manufacturing PMI is due Monday.Reserve Bank of Australia sets monetary policy Tuesday.U.S. Federal Reserve Beige Book is due Wednesday.OPEC+ meeting on output Thursday.The February U.S. employment report on Friday will provide an update on the speed and direction of the nation’s labor market recovery.These are some of the main moves in markets:StocksThe S&P 500 Index fell 0.5%.Nikkei 225 futures were little changed.Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index rose 0.4%.Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index was little changed earlier.CurrenciesThe yen traded at 106.57 per dollar.The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.7% Friday.The euro was at $1.2071.BondsAustralia’s 10-year yield fell 22 basis points to 1.70%.The yield on 10-year Treasuries tumbled 12 basis points to 1.40% Friday.CommoditiesWest Texas Intermediate crude fell 3.2% to $61.50 a barrel.Gold fell 2.1% to $1,734.04 an ounce.For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P.

  • Traders on Yield Watch in Bond Markets ‘Not for Faint-Hearted’

    (Bloomberg) -- After last week’s market turmoil, there’s really just one question on traders’ minds: how central banks will react to the jump in bond yields.The manner in which markets anticipate the likely policy response will be key to determining risk appetite Monday following a week in which 10-year Treasury yields, a benchmark for global borrowing costs, surged to almost triple their levels of August. The move underscored how investors are starting to fret about an acceleration in inflation that might prompt the Federal Reserve and other central banks to tighten policy sooner than expected. The S&P 500 had its first back-to-back weekly decline since October, while implied volatility in Group-of-Seven currencies rose the most since June.“We are moving to a type of market condition that’s not for the faint-hearted,” said Nader Naeimi, the head of dynamic markets at AMP Capital Investors in Sydney, adding that he will continue betting against Treasuries. “The focus right now is the Fed and central banks. If they sound alarmed about the recent back-up in bond yields, then the curves will likely start flattening.”As trading go underway Monday morning, yields on Australia’s 10-year government bonds slumped 19 basis points to 1.73%. Yield’s on the three-year benchmark eased half a basis point to 0.11%, versus the central bank’s target of 0.1%. In New Zealand, 10-year yields slipped 5 basis points.The Reserve Bank of Australia waded in with A$3 billion ($2.3 billion) of unscheduled bond purchases last week in an effort to calm markets. Governor Philip Lowe may signal policy makers’ resolve to restrain borrowing costs at a policy meeting Tuesday. The country’s 10-year note yield climbed around 50 basis points in the week through Friday.For all the recent whiplash in bond markets though, Friday provided some respite amid some month-end buying and attempts by policy makers to soothe markets. European Central Bank Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel said more stimulus could be added if the surge in yields hurts growth, while Fed Chair Jerome Powell called the run-up in yields “a statement of confidence” in the economic outlook.The 10-year Treasury yield ended the week at 1.40%. It had surpassed 1.60% at one point on Thursday.Still, investors will be looking for more reassurance in coming days as Powell delivers what are likely his final public comments before a mid-month policy meeting. A string of other officials are also scheduled to speak.More VolatilityThe volatility in Treasuries is “more than likely” to carry onto this week, said Marc Ostwald, chief economist and global strategist at ADM Investor Services in London. “Markets are still in the mood to challenge the Fed view of running everything hot.”Mansoor Mohi-uddin, chief economist at Bank of Singapore Ltd., expects central bank officials to express more concern about the move in yields in coming days because tighter financial conditions may hurt the U.S. recovery.“We expect the Fed to stop observing that surging yields are benign, for example by signaling it may delay tapering if bond markets remain volatile,” he said. “A shift in tone by the Fed would help stop 10-year Treasury yields rising further towards 2% in the next few months and instead stay at very low levels still to the benefit of risk assets.”(Updates with opening of trading in Australia)For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P.

  • 3 Cryptocurrencies That Turned $10,000 Into $1 Million (or More)

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  • China's factory activity expands at a slower pace in February, misses expectations: official PMI

    The official manufacturing Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI) fell to 50.6 from 51.3 in January, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed on Sunday, remaining above the 50-point mark that separates growth from contraction. Chinese factory activity normally goes dormant during the Lunar New Year break as workers return to their home towns. Generally, China's economic recovery has been gathering pace due to robust exports, pent-up demand and government stimulus.

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  • Australia Central Bank Girds for All-Out Defense of Yield Target

    (Bloomberg) -- Australia’s central bank signaled it will not shirk from its yield target and quantitative easing programs designed to hold down borrowing costs and keep a lid on the currency. Yet, the bond market shows no indication of taking a backward step.Reserve Bank Governor Philip Lowe and his board are likely to focus Tuesday’s meeting on their response to a global reflation trade that’s proving a major challenge for central banks. Australia shifted to the forefront of the market action as a commodity powerhouse with a rapidly recovering economy; a combination that’s driven its currency up around 80 U.S. cents.The RBA is expected to maintain its broad settings: a key interest rate and three-year bond yield target at 0.10% and a A$100 billion ($78.4 billion) QE program for longer-dated securities. It surprised last month by announcing a second round of QE when the current tranche expires in mid-April. It could tweak its buying plans tomorrow.“Markets will be looking for a firm response to the extreme bond market volatility,” said Su-Lin Ong, head of Australian economic and fixed-income strategy at Royal Bank of Canada. “At a minimum, we would expect a step up in yield-curve control for the next couple of weeks, possibly including more purchases on non QE operation days.”The RBA -- following a more than two-month hiatus in defending its yield target -- re-entered the market last Monday with a A$1 billion buy that failed to leave a dent. It followed up Thursday with A$3 billion and when yields still pushed higher, executed a further A$3 billion Friday.Bond markets are pricing in accelerating inflation on expectations of a rapid global economic recovery that will leave central banks unable to maintain loose settings. Policy makers have pushed back, with Jerome Powell signaling the Federal Reserve was nowhere near close to pulling back support for the U.S. economy.But with trillions of dollars sloshing around economies courtesy of central bank infusions plus vast fiscal programs, amid vaccination roll out, rising price pressure may be on the horizon.Australia is facing further pressures as a commodity powerhouse with iron ore, its largest export, surging through $170 a ton last week, approaching records set more than a decade ago during China’s construction frenzy.What Bloomberg Economics Says...“While sizable, the RBA’s purchases are missing the mark when it comes to containing key 3-year yield benchmarks. We think the lift in the 3-year futures yields increases the risk the RBA redirects as much as A$5-6 billion of purchases towards the November 2024 bond over coming weeks.”-- James McIntyre, economistFor the full note, click here.Australia has recovered rapidly from the virus due to its success in limiting Covid-19’s spread to isolated flare-ups. Household and business confidence are strong, boosting activity and hiring, with the jobless rate falling to 6.4% in January from a pandemic peak of 7.5%.Gross domestic product probably surged 2.3% in the final three months of last year from the prior quarter, economists estimate ahead of data Wednesday. It likely fell 2% from a year earlier, with GDP not expected to return to pre-pandemic levels until mid-year.For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P.

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