Smith: A strategic perspective on our future
In the past few years, Americans have been heavily focused on domestic issues. With the exception of the war in Ukraine, many world events have not been on our radar.
So let’s take a look at the world today. This report is an optimistic one. Most trends are in the right direction. If you are a committed pessimist you may want to quit reading this article. It will argue that the “gloom and doomers” are wrong.
Let’s tour the world, region by region.
China and the Indo-Pacific. Until recently the Chinese seemed to be 10 feet tall. However, there has been an important, if not a dramatic, diminishment in the power and prestige of the Peoples Republic of China. Today, the Chinese face many difficulties.
The demographics are all moving in the wrong direction for China. The “one child rule” which lasted for more than 30 years has led to a shortage of working age people and huge number of old folks to support. Whereas Germany deals with its shortage of working age folks with immigration, very few folks want to move to and live in China.
Autocratic leadership on the part of President Xi Jinping is showing weaknesses in many areas. The Chinese have massively mishandled the COVID-19 crisis. The Chinese vaccine was and is highly ineffective. The harsh shutdown approach has angered most Chinese citizens and diminished the legitimacy of the Xi government. The Chinese housing market is in free fall because of mismanagement.
Its military is stronger but totally untested in combat. Attacking Taiwan would be a bridge too far. Who would want to be a Chinese ship’s captain on an invasion force? Incoming precision missiles would decimate ships and convoys. Hitler could not cross the 20-mile English Channel. Xi would fail if he tried to cross the 80-mile Taiwan strait.
The war in Ukraine has demonstrated to Xi and his acolytes how successful America has been in alliance leadership. In this area, China has a major weakness; no reliable allies.
The Indo-Pacific Alliance of India, Japan, Australia and the United States is growing in both commitment and military strength. A good indication of this is a recent decision of the Japanese government to double its defense budget. The Chinese have been especially clumsy in its relations with India and Australia in recent months.
Europe. Almost no expert in Europe or in North America anticipated that Sweden and Finland would ask to join the NATO alliance. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the brutal way it is executing the war has changed the world in many ways. NATO is much stronger and more united as a result. The European nations are rapidly reducing their reliance on Russian oil and gas.
The United States. The bipartisan legislation which passed Congress in recent months has been historic in its scope and impact. It can best be compared to the first 100 days of the Franklin Roosevelt presidency. Although gridlock in Washington will continue to be a major problem, many of the American states have taken up the slack. A number of them are in very strong shape. Georgia is a good example.
What can you do to help ensure that America remains free and prosperous?
1. Vote in every election.
2. Do not support candidates on the far left or far right of the political spectrum.
3. Never support a candidate who believes in and highlights ridiculous conspiracy theories.
4. Be generous in support of worthy causes. If you gave 5% of your income to charities last year, give 10% this year and even more in future years.
5. Read books so you can broaden and deepen your understanding of world and national events. A reasonable goal is one non-fiction book per month.
6. Call out and challenge anyone who uses racist, homophobic, or anti-Semitic phrases. If they continue in this obnoxious pattern, distance yourself from them. Don’t answer their emails, phone calls or letters.
7. Retain your basic optimism. The data is clear. Optimists lead happier lives and accomplish more than pessimists.
Perry Smith, a West Point graduate, earned his PhD in international relations from Columbia University. For two years he served as the top planner in the U.S. Air Force. With 350,000 in print, Rules and Tools for Leaders is Smith’s most successful book.
This article originally appeared on Augusta Chronicle: Smith: Recent global events enforce an optimistic perspective
