Snow falling on Christmas Day isn't common in Fort Collins, but this could be the year

Miles Blumhardt, Fort Collins Coloradoan
Updated ·3 min read

The last time Fort Collins saw snow falling on Christmas Day was seven years ago, but that streak is in jeopardy as a winter storm lumbers toward Colorado.

Christmas Day isn't until Monday, and forecasts six days out aren't the most reliable. Early forecast models range anywhere from an inch to 12 inches of snow around the Denver area.

"Forecast models have been pretty consistent in bringing in a storm system with a chance for snow around Christmas Eve," said Russ Schumacher, state climatologist and professor in Colorado State University's Department of Atmospheric Science. "It’s still almost a week away, so it’s too far out to know the details, but I would say that the chances for snow on Christmas Eve are higher than usual this year."

We will continue to track the storm and provide details regarding travel impacts and forecast snowfall totals closer to Christmas.

For now, let's take a look at what the National Weather Service knows and doesn't know with the approaching storm and how often Fort Collins and other Colorado cities enjoy a white Christmas.

The potential is there for Christmas snow in Colorado, but will it all come together?

Here's what the National Weather Service does and doesn't know about the storm as of Tuesday morning.

What it knows:

  • An unsettled weather pattern will bring favorable conditions for winter weather with the probability of snow on Christmas Day inching up.

  • The main window for potential travel impacts is Saturday afternoon into Christmas Day.

  • There is a 20% to 30% chance of significant snowfall.

What it doesn't know:

  • The exact storm track.

  • Duration or speed of the storm.

  • Precise timing of potential travel impacts.

  • Snowfall amounts.

  • Location of heavier snowfall.

How often does Fort Collins see a white Christmas?

That depends on your definition.

Fort Collins has received 15.1 inches of snow in two storms this season: 5.8 inches Oct. 28-29 and 9.3 inches Nov. 24-25 at the city's official weather station located on CSU's main campus.

Unseasonably warm weather has melted that snow.

Over the past 20 years, the city has had at least an inch of snow on the ground on Christmas 60% of the time. Snow falling from 7 p.m. Christmas Eve to 7 p.m. Christmas Day occurs about 30% of the time, according to the Colorado Climate Center.

The last time Fort Collins saw measurable snowfall on Christmas Day was 2016, when 0.2 inches fell. That marked the third straight Christmas Day the city saw snow, with 2.8 inches in 2015 and 5 inches in 2014.

Super El Niño winters like we are in now have produced some large snowfall years for Fort Collins.

Here are white Christmas chances for select Colorado cities

Here are chances with the new climate data from 1991-2020 of cities having at least 1 inch of snow on the ground on Christmas Day, according to NOAA observations:

  • Crested Butte: 100%

  • Winter Park: 100%

  • Steamboat Springs: 99%

  • Aspen: 99%

  • Grand Lake: 98%

  • Breckenridge: 98%

  • Walden: 82%

  • Estes Park: 74%

  • Greeley: 55%

  • Loveland: 44%

  • Boulder: 43%

  • Denver: 43%

  • Grand Junction: 32%

  • Colorado Springs: 15%

  • Pueblo: 13%

This article originally appeared on Fort Collins Coloradoan: Will Colorado, Fort Collins get a white Christmas? Here's what we know