When will it snow in Flagstaff? Your guide to the winter season

A warmer and drier weather pattern has set over Northern Arizona this season with less snowfall than in previous years as of early December. But that could change at any time, according to the National Weather Service.

The snow season in northern Arizona typically starts mid-November and can run until May. As of Tuesday, Flagstaff had received under 5 inches of snow this season after some last-minute light snow showers fell over the metro area overnight on Saturday.

By this date, the metro area has normally received 11.1 inches, meaning this year has received less than half of snow from the average, said meteorologist Justin Johndrow with the National Weather Service in Flagstaff.

The warming trend was expected to continue this week, allowing residents to enjoy some quiet weather and warm temperatures a little longer. High temperatures across northern Arizona were expected to be up to 15 degrees above normal through Thursday.

"We don't see good chances for snow on the radar any time soon," Johndrow said. "But things can change quickly."

Here's everything you need to know about how to prepare for this snow season and what to expect in the upcoming days.

When will it snow in Flagstaff?

According to Johndrow, cooling temperatures were expected to return this weekend to northern Arizona, bringing slight chances for snow.

"Chances are around 10% for the area, but most likely there will not be any snow this weekend," Johndrow said. "The pattern is not too favorable for snow."

However, that doesn't mean more snow won't show up unexpectedly.

Last year, snow amounts had totaled 3.5 inches by the first week of December, but unusual snowfall then lashed the area in the following days. This pushed the snowfall totals up to 179 inches, as measured at the NWS Flagstaff office in Bellemont, Johndrow said.

Johndorw said the weather pattern looks like it will have the wetness needed to get a good amount of precipitation this season. Whether that falls in the form of snow will depend on how deep the temperatures drop, he said.

Better snow chances were expected for next weekend, but they were still not too high, with only about 20-30% chances for next Friday and early Saturday. The northeast parts of the state, around Chinle and Window Rock, had the best likelihood of seeing snowfall.

Brian Klimowski, meteorologist in charge at the weather service in Flagstaff, also said northern Arizona may see a wetter than normal winter due to the current El Niño, but expected snow amounts are uncertain at the moment.

How can I prepare for the snow?

Johndrow advised residents to stay in touch with the forecast and be prepared for the snow even if it has been warmer than expected.

He also advised people who are planning to travel this season to stay aware of road conditions and keep a supple kit inside their cars.

"If you're going to be traveling, make sure you have certain elements in your car," Johndrow said.

The must-have items that the Arizona Department of Transportation recommends to keep in your vehicle during the winter season include:

• Cellphone and charger

• Water

• Winter clothing/blankets

• Prescribed medication

• First-aid kit

• Flashlight with extra batteries

• Ice scraper

• A small bag of sand or cat litter for wheel traction

• Compact shovel for snow removal

• Travel tool kit and battery cables

• Safety flares

• Nonperishable snacks

• Road map

Drivers are also advised not to drive during a snowstorm. If travelers encounter hazardous road conditions unexpectedly, they can be prepared by making sure they follow these steps before heading out:

• Let someone know where you are going and what route you will take. If something happens, this person will know where to start a search.

• Make sure you have a fully charged mobile phone, a car charger, and an emergency supplies kit in your car.

• Check highway conditions by calling 511, visiting the AZ511 app, or on ADOT's 511 Travel information site at www.az511.com.

If your car does get stuck during a storm, The National Weather Service recommends you:

• Stay in the vehicle. If you leave your vehicle, you will become disoriented quickly in wind-driven snow and cold.

• Run the motor for about 10 minutes each hour for heat.

• While running the motor, open the window a little for fresh air to avoid carbon monoxide poisoning.

• Clear snow from the exhaust pipe to avoid gas poisoning.

• Be visible to rescuers.

• Turn on the dome light at night when running the engine.

• Tie a bright-colored cloth, preferably red, to your antenna or door.

• After snow stops falling, raise the hood to indicate you need help.

• Keep your vehicle winter safe.

The National Weather Service recommended residents “winterize” their vehicle, pack an emergency supply kit, and avoid all nonessential travel during the high-impact winter storm periods.

Some other tips from the ADOT include keeping an adequate distance from any snowplows, driving slow with slow accelerations, planning and checking routes ahead of driving and making sure your vehicle is properly prepared for snow.

Republic reporter Abigail Celaya contributed to this article.

This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: When will it snow in Flagstaff? Your guide to the winter season