Snow may not be the biggest winter worry for Galesburg. What the official forecast predicts

GALESBURG — Forecasters are predicting a mild, wet winter in central Illinois.

Higher-than-usual temperatures could translate into less snow accumulation, but they could also lead to more ice.

“We actually have a moderate La Nina expected this winter, which could bring some more precipitation than normal. With the warmer temperatures that come with that, it could be more rain than snow,” said Ryan Knutsvig, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service office in Lincoln. "Unfortunately, it could be freezing rain as well."

La Nina is a colder climate pattern caused by winds over the Pacific Ocean that bring cooler water to the surface, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Milder La Nina years bring less cold weather to the Midwest than strong ones.

"The freezing rain potential will exist, and with above normal precipitation, that could be enhanced as well. It really depends on how cold the cold snaps are when the snow comes,” Knutsvig added.

Farmers' Almanac to Central Illinois: Brace yourself for a chilly winter and 3 blizzards

Dueling forecasts for winter weather

According to information from the winter-weather projection on the National Weather Service website, there is a 30% to 40% chance that temperatures will be above normal, and a 40% to 50% chance that precipitation levels will also be above normal through March.

The prediction differs slightly from the annual Farmers' Almanac prediction, issued months beforehand and relying on a 203-year-old proprietary methodology.

It called for an average year, snow-wise, for the region and "well below normal" temperatures in the area, particularly in February.

What's normal for a Galesburg winter?

Galesburg normally sees a temperature range of 20.2 to 38.4 degrees and 5.9 inches of snow in December. In January, temperatures dip to an average low of 13.8 to 30, with 9 inches of snow. In February, temperatures start to warm, with averages ranging from 17.3 to 34.7 and 6.6 inches of snow. And the warming trend continues into March, with average temperatures ranging from 28.1 to 48 degrees, and 2.3 inches of snow.

Last year, Galesburg saw 18.2 inches of snow, 16 of which came in February. The remaining 2.2 inches occurred in December, with only a trace of snow in January.

The low temperature last winter was -9 on Feb. 14 and 15 — a stretch that included 15 straight days with below freezing temperatures.

This article originally appeared on Galesburg Register-Mail: Galesburg weather: National Weather Service gives winter forecast warning