Storm to threaten double whammy of snow, ice across parts of Southeast
A storm that AccuWeather meteorologists have had their eye on since the start of the month will drop several inches of snow and an icy mess on the southern Appalachians through the end of the weekend. The storm could even draw in enough cold air to allow some snowflakes to fly in lower elevations in eastern Tennessee and northeastern Georgia, including the far northern suburbs of Atlanta.
Exactly how much snow falls, as well as the extent of accumulating snow in some areas, will depend on the track and strength of a slow-moving storm that began to develop over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico on Saturday and will move steadily northeastward through Monday.
A stalled front was the focal point for shower and thunderstorm activity into the afternoon hours on Friday across the northeastern Gulf coast. Drenching rain then proceeded to spread across portions of Georgia and the Carolinas during Friday night, with additional expansion in Florida on Saturday. Twin Lakes, Georgia, received 7.53 inches of rain through Saturday evening, with rain also inundating Greenville, Florida (7.79 inches) and Madison, Florida (7.14 inches), among other towns that received more than 6 inches.
However, as the storm strengthens, a corresponding big dip in the jet stream will develop over the Southeastern states and compensate for a lack of cold air in the region. Storms with a jet stream setup of this nature are able to pull down cold air from high up in the atmosphere, allowing snow to reach the ground. This is exactly what AccuWeather meteorologists anticipate will happen through Sunday evening over the interior Southeast.
"Never trust closed low pressure areas," AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologists Bernie Rayno told viewers on the AccuWeather Network as he referenced the storm setup. "Mischief and mayhem always follow closed lows."
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The storm started to produce snow and sleet at high elevations over the southern Appalachians Saturday night, with additional wintry precipitation expected into Sunday evening. The heaviest accumulation from the storm will be found in the areas where the air will be coldest. Those locations include a strip of territory from western North Carolina to western Virginia. A general 3-6 inches of snow will fall, but an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 24 inches is most likely to occur over some of the highest ridges and peaks in the region.
Several inches of snow and sleet are forecast in locations such as Bluefield, West Virginia; and Blacksburg, Virginia. Because the snow could come down hard at times in these areas and others in the southern Appalachians, roads are likely to become slushy and covered in snow, resulting in slippery and difficult travel conditions. This includes stretches of interstate highways 26, 40, 64, 77 and 81 in the region.
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Motorists venturing through the higher elevations this area should be prepared for extensive delays and road closures. A delayed or expedited trip is recommended to avoid the height of the storm from Sunday to Sunday evening, forecasters say.
The combination of wet snow and ice will likely cause tree limbs to bend and break, potentially taking power lines with them. This will be an added hazard on secondary highways and rural routes.
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Outside of the mountainous regions, meteorologists say that the snow forecast is shaping up to be a bit tricky due to temperatures that will be slightly above freezing. This includes locations from middle Tennessee and eastern Kentucky to the northern parts of Georgia and South Carolina, as well as west-central North Carolina and northern Virginia.
The storm is strengthening, but not to the point where accumulating snow will fall in most areas east of the southern Appalachians in the Carolinas. As a result, it is likely that cities such as Charlotte, Winston-Salem and Raleigh, North Carolina, as well as Greenville, South Carolina, will escape any snowfall, aside from perhaps some wet snowflakes mixing in for a time.
It will come down to how hard precipitation falls to overcome the marginal temperatures and warm ground in the foothills and Piedmont areas. However, cities such as Asheville, North Carolina, could get a small accumulation of snow into Sunday evening. Slippery driving conditions are possible, especially on secondary roads and colder surfaces.
The weather is likely to vary considerably along the I-80 corridor in western Virginia, where road conditions may range from wet, to icy and even slushy over the higher terrain.
Closer to the Atlantic coast, the strengthening storm will begin to crank up a northeasterly wind. Winds could average between 15 and 25 mph and produce gusts near 40 mph. Because of the slow-moving nature of the storm and the flow of air around it, minor tidal flooding, rough surf and beach erosion are likely to spread from northeastern North Carolina to southeastern New England from Sunday to Monday.
Some locations that are prone to problems during nor'easters, such as the Virginia Tidewater and the barrier island communities in southern New Jersey, could experience minor coastal flooding during high tide later this weekend to early next week.
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As the storm pivots well off the mid-Atlantic and southern New England coasts through Sunday night, the northwestern edge of the drenching rain may reach areas from Philadelphia to New York City and even Boston.
The atmosphere over the coastal Northeast will not be as cold as the interior Southeast, according to AccuWeather Long-Range Meteorologist Joseph Bauer. However, it is possible that a narrow band of wet snow or a mixture of rain and wet snow develops close to this zone for a brief time near the end of the storm.
As the snow drought continues along the I-95 zone of the mid-Atlantic, southern cities such as Knoxville, Tennessee, have already picked up 1.6 inches, which is more than all of the snow that has fallen so far in Washington, D.C., Baltimore, Philadelphia and New York City combined. A number of additional southern cities may join that list in the wake of this storm.
While the storm system will add to what has already been a wet winter in some locations, this will bring an opportunity for skiers to enjoy some fresh powder in portions of the southern Appalachians for a time late this weekend to early next week.
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