SNP faces losing almost half the seats it won at the last general election
The SNP is set to lose nearly half the seats it won at the last general election with Labour to wipe out the nationalists in Glasgow, a major poll has revealed.
The YouGov survey, the most authoritative UK opinion poll carried out in five years, predicted that Humza Yousaf’s party would win just 25 seats, compared to the 48 it returned in 2019.
Labour is on course to reclaim many of its former heartlands, which it lost to the SNP in 2015. Sir Keir’s party would return 24 MPs if the result was repeated on election day, according to the poll.
This would include all six Glasgow constituencies returning to Labour, which is predicted to perform strongly across the Central Belt.
According to YouGov’s MRP method, which successfully forecast the 2017 and 2019 UK elections, the Conservatives would win four Scottish seats, down two on the 2019 result. The Liberal Democrats would also have four Scottish MPs, the same number it currently has.
The results emerged as the SNP faces a battle to persuade independence supporters not to desert the party. Previous surveys have suggested they are planning to switch to Labour in large numbers.
Mr Yousaf took part in a general election “campaign launch” event on Friday, in which he claimed there was no need for Scots to vote Labour to ensure Sir Keir Starmer becomes Prime Minister, as he would claim a majority regardless.
Battle for support
Stephen Flynn, the SNP Westminster leader, on Sunday backed Mr Yousaf’s claim that independence could disappear off the political agenda if the nationalists perform poorly.
Despite their main threat coming from Labour, the party’s strategy has been to focus on the Conservatives, claiming that only the SNP can deliver a “Tory free Scotland”.
Mr Flynn told BBC Scotland’s The Sunday Show: “The reality is that if you vote in Scotland for a Labour or Tory MP, as soon as they have their feet under the table in Westminster, they will seek to take Scotland’s independence off it.
“The only surefire way to make sure Scotland’s independence remains relevant to the Westminster establishment and to an incoming Prime Minister is to vote for the Scottish National Party.”
Ian Murray, the shadow Scottish secretary, said the SNP wanted to make the election about independence as it had “no other ideas and cannot defend its own woeful record in government.”
He added: “The SNP claims that it can kick the Tories out, but that’s blatantly false. If voters want to kick the Tories out of Downing Street they need to vote for that change with Labour.”
